meow
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世纪风王
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[WP]29W机构发报专帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2017-10-31 10:12

图片:wp9517.gif


WTPN21 PGTW 310130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.7N 110.6E TO 9.9N 104.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 310000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.9N 110.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
7.9N 110.2E, APPROXIMATELY 261 NM ESE OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM,
IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WRAPPING INTO THE COVERED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 301342Z
ASCAT PASS REVEALS A TIGHT OVAL CIRCULATION WITH 10-15 KT WIND
BARBS, THOUGH MANY BARBS ARE FLAGGED CONT*AMINATED. A 301330 OSCAT
PASS DEPICTS 15-20 KT WINDS, CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTURBANCE RELATED TO STRONG
STRAIGHTLINE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND 10
KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIR ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. 95W IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KT), AND SST
VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CIRCULATION
PERSISTING AND MOVING WESTWARD, THEN DEVELOPING IN THE BAY OF
BENGAL, WEST OF THE MALAY PENINSULA, AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 18Z MODEL RUNS ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR DISTURBANCE
INTENSIFICATION AROUND THE MALAY PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010130Z.
//
NNNN
[meow于2017-11-06 15:04编辑了帖子]
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  • tcfa_gw
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    2017-10-31 12:20
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    2017-10-31 12:20
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Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
t02436
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1楼#
发布于:2017-10-31 22:22
HKO/TD/10-31 12Z
熱帶低氣壓

在香港時間 2017 年 10 月 31 日 20 時的最新資料

位置:  北緯 7.5 度,東經 107.8 度
中心附近最高持續風速:  每小時 45 公里

位於越南以南海域的熱帶氣旋會在未來兩三日向西移動,橫過泰國灣。
熱 帶 氣 旋 路 徑

图片:nwp_1728.png



預 測 的 位 置 和 強 度

香 港 時 間 位 置 熱 帶 氣 旋 類 別 中 心 附 近 最 高 持 續 風 速
2017 年 11 月 01 日 20 時 北 緯 7.4 度 東 經 106.2 度 熱帶低氣壓 每小時 45 公里
2017 年 11 月 02 日 20 時 北 緯 7.7 度 東 經 103.7 度 熱帶低氣壓 每小時 55 公里
2017 年 11 月 03 日 20 時 北 緯 7.4 度 東 經 101.4 度 熱帶低氣壓 每小時 45 公里
2017 年 11 月 04 日 20 時 北 緯 7.8 度 東 經 97.1 度 熱帶低氣壓 每小時 55 公里
2017 年 11 月 05 日 20 時 北 緯 7.3 度 東 經 95.9 度 熱帶低氣壓 每小時 45 公里
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刚打酱油回来
超强台风
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2楼#
发布于:2017-11-01 10:16
JTWC/95W/TCFA/11-01 0130Z

图片:wp9517.gif


WTPN21 PGTW 010130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310130Z OCT 17//
REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/312030Z OCT 17//
NARR/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 310130).
REF B IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 312030)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.0N 108.1E TO 7.7N 102.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.1N 107.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
7.1N 107.3E, 221 NM SSE OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 311800Z GCOM 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE HIGHLIGHTS
THE SHEARED SEPARATION BETWEEN DEEP CONVECTION, CONCENTRATED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE DISTURBANCE, AND LOW LEVEL FEATURES TO
THE NORTHEAST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AS WINDS ALOFT ARE
MOSTLY EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED
OVER THE DISTURBANCE AS WELL, WITH VALUES NOW RANGING FROM 10-20 KT.
LAND INTERACTION WITH VIETNAM MAY BE ALSO BE HINDERING THE
DISTURBANCE?担 DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY.  SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE, FROM
28-29C. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, 95W HAS BEEN CAUGHT IN A COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY, BUT MODELS AND
CONSENSUS STILL FORECAST IT TO ULTIMATELY PROPAGATE WESTWARD. GLOBAL
MODELS EITHER FORECAST SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION INTO A COMPACT
CIRCULATION, OR DISSIPATE THE DISTURBANCE ENTIRELY AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020130Z.
4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 121.4E.
//
NNNN
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iam最小值
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3楼#
发布于:2017-11-01 11:38
HKO/TD/11-01 00Z
熱帶低氣壓

在香港時間 2017 年 11 月 01 日 08 時的最新資料

位置:  北緯 7.4 度,東經 107.0 度
中心附近最高持續風速:  每小時 45 公里

位於越南以南海域的熱帶氣旋會在未來一兩日向西移動,橫過泰國灣。
熱 帶 氣 旋 路 徑

图片:HKO 20171101 00UTC.png



預 測 的 位 置 和 強 度

香 港 時 間        位 置        熱 帶 氣 旋 類 別        中 心 附 近 最 高 持 續 風 速
2017 年 11 月 02 日 08 時        北 緯 7.8 度        東 經 105.4 度        熱帶低氣壓        每小時 45 公里
2017 年 11 月 03 日 08 時        北 緯 8.1 度        東 經 102.4 度        熱帶低氣壓        每小時 55 公里
2017 年 11 月 04 日 08 時        北 緯 7.5 度        東 經 99.3 度        熱帶低氣壓        每小時 45 公里
2017 年 11 月 05 日 08 時        北 緯 6.8 度        東 經 96.7 度        熱帶低氣壓        每小時 45 公里
2017 年 11 月 06 日 08 時        北 緯 6.7 度        東 經 95.7 度        熱帶低氣壓        每小時 45 公里
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t02436
顶级超台
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4楼#
发布于:2017-11-01 22:54
HKO/TD/11-01 12Z
熱帶低氣壓

在香港時間 2017 年 11 月 01 日 20 時的最新資料

位置:  北緯 7.5 度,東經 106.4 度
中心附近最高持續風速:  每小時 45 公里

位於越南以南海域的熱帶氣旋會在未來一兩日向西移動,橫過泰國灣。
熱 帶 氣 旋 路 徑

图片:nwp_1728.png



預 測 的 位 置 和 強 度

香 港 時 間 位 置 熱 帶 氣 旋 類 別 中 心 附 近 最 高 持 續 風 速
2017 年 11 月 02 日 20 時 北 緯 7.7 度 東 經 105.0 度 熱帶低氣壓 每小時 45 公里
2017 年 11 月 03 日 20 時 北 緯 7.2 度 東 經 101.7 度 熱帶低氣壓 每小時 45 公里
2017 年 11 月 04 日 20 時 北 緯 6.5 度 東 經 100.2 度 熱帶低氣壓 每小時 45 公里
2017 年 11 月 05 日 20 時 北 緯 7.4 度 東 經 99.2 度 熱帶低氣壓 每小時 45 公里
2017 年 11 月 06 日 20 時 北 緯 8.1 度 東 經 97.7 度 熱帶低氣壓 每小時 45 公里
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t02436
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发布于:2017-11-02 10:45
HKO/TD/11-02 00Z
低壓區

在香港時間 2017 年 11 月 02 日 08 時的最新資料

位置:  北緯 7.6 度,東經 106.2 度
中心附近最高持續風速:  每小時 40 公里
熱 帶 氣 旋 路 徑

图片:nwp_1728.png

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t02436
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顶级超台
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6楼#
发布于:2017-11-02 10:50
JTWC/95W/TCFA CANCELLED/11-01 2230Z

图片:wp952017.20171101215101.gif


WTPN21 PGTW 012230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010130Z NOV 17//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 010130)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1N
106.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 105.9E, APPROXIMATELY 170NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTH OF A
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). OUTFLOW FROM TD 28W IS INDUCING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER 95W AND STIFLING DEVELOPMENT. A
011933Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER
LAND FROM THE LLC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE LEANING MORE TOWARDS
DISSIPATION, WITH ONLY NAVGEM PREDICTING 95W BECOMING A WEAK,
COMPACT TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF THAILAND BEFORE CROSSING
INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL. ALL OTHERS FORECAST DISSIPATION AFTER
INTERACTING WITH THE MALAYSIAN PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1021 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO MEDIUM. THIS CANCELS REF A.//
NNNN
[iam最小值于2017-11-02 21:17编辑了帖子]
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meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
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7楼#
发布于:2017-11-05 15:15
JTWC/95W/TCFA/11-05 0730Z

图片:wp9517.gif


WTPN21 PGTW 050730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.6N 101.3E TO 11.5N 100.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
050700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.2N
101.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.5N 101.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 101.3E, APPROXIMATELY
515NM SOUTH OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE CONSOLIDATING, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 050305Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CENTER. A 050306Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 15
TO 20 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-
10KTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER LAND, WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF
OF THAILAND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE MALAY PENINSULA. ONCE BACK
OVER WATER IN ABOUT 12 HOURS, FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-
29C) SHOULD AID IN DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060730Z.//
NNNN
[meow于2017-11-05 15:18编辑了帖子]
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  • 9914dan
    威望 3
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    2017-11-05 16:44
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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iam最小值
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8楼#
发布于:2017-11-06 16:20
JTWC/29W/#01/11-06 06Z

图片:wp2917 20171106 0600Z.gif


WTPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050721ZOCT2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z --- NEAR 8.3N 102.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.3N 102.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 9.6N 101.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 10.6N 99.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 11.6N 97.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 12.5N 95.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 14.1N 92.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 14.8N 90.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 15.4N 88.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 8.6N 102.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z,
070300Z AND 070900Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21
PGTW 050730).//
NNNN
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发布于:2017-11-06 17:10
JTWC/29W/#01/11-06 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
290NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED CENTER. A 060244Z
METOP-B 89GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING BUT DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED
CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. A
060232Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS
BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-
10 KNOTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 29W IS TRACKING POLEWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 29W IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AS IT STRENGTHENS AND STEERS UNDER AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL
STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH, ALONG 18-20N LATITUDE. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO 40 KNOTS UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS UNTIL
IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA NEAR TAU 24. TD 29W WILL
WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE MALAY PENINSULA BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-
INTENSIFY AS IT TRANSITS THE ANDAMAN SEA.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 29W WILL SLOW AS IT APPROACHES A BROAD BREAK
IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER
BANGLADESH. AS A RESULT OF THE WEAKENING STEERING INFLUENCE, THERE
IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH A LARGE SPREAD
IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL SOLUTIONS. TD 29W IS FORECAST TO SIGNIFICANTLY
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 120 AS IT DEVELOPS
A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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