颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-08-03
  • 最后登录2018-01-17
  • 粉丝50
  • 关注3
  • 发帖数359
  • 来自
阅读:29328回复:110

[WP]1724号强热带风暴“海葵”(30W.Haikui) - 横过菲中进入南海,环境转差逐渐消亡

楼主#
更多 发布于:2017-11-08 07:56
编扰资讯 (NRL)

99W INVEST 171108 0000  10.7N  130.8E WPAC   15   NA

图片:20171107.2320.himawari-8.vis.99W.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.10.7N.130.8E.100pc.jpg

[9914dan于2017-11-12 23:06编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +5 威望 +5
喜欢1 评分2

最新喜欢:

棒棒糖lollipop棒棒糖lol...
颱風若只如初見。
禾愛糖
超强台风
超强台风
  • 注册日期2012-11-05
  • 最后登录2018-01-17
  • 粉丝260
  • 关注115
  • 发帖数9563
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2017-11-08 11:35
終於編號了,GFS先前預計99W能在菲東爆發增強。
從前的我打倒今天的我。

回复(0) 喜欢(1)     评分
wwwawa
热带风暴
热带风暴
  • 注册日期2017-09-21
  • 最后登录2018-01-17
  • 粉丝28
  • 关注2
  • 发帖数659
  • 来自
2楼#
发布于:2017-11-08 12:15
JMA:LPA

图片:ASAS_COLOR_201711080000.png

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
Elite
荣誉会员-暖池
荣誉会员-暖池
  • 注册日期2004-11-13
  • 最后登录2018-01-17
  • 粉丝105
  • 关注44
  • 发帖数9331
  • 来自
3楼#
发布于:2017-11-08 12:56
移速过快 在登陆菲律宾前难有作为
影響香港熱帶氣旋路徑圖:http://www.hktctrack.net/ 將軍澳日出康城首都氣象站天氣情況:http://hktctrack.net/weatherstation/LOHASPark/ 新浪微博:http://weibo.com/zodiacvirgin/
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
  • 注册日期2011-09-08
  • 最后登录2018-01-18
  • 粉丝412
  • 关注38
  • 发帖数17037
  • 来自
4楼#
发布于:2017-11-08 13:38
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 130.N 99W,
APPROXIMATELY 575 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILLA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BELOW AN AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE MTSAT 850MB RELATIVE VORTICITY PRODUCT
REVEALS A MODERATE POSITIVE VORTICITY ENVIORNMENT. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIORNMENT IS CHARATERIZED BY AN AREA OF MODERATE DIVERGENCE AND
FAVORABLE 5-10 KNOT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
28-30 DEGREES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
  • 注册日期2011-09-08
  • 最后登录2018-01-18
  • 粉丝412
  • 关注38
  • 发帖数17037
  • 来自
5楼#
发布于:2017-11-08 13:50
05Z再发一篇新的,只有GFS看好。

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.6N 130.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 130.1E, APPROXIMATELY
580 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) BELOW AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A
071756Z 85GHZ SSMI IMAGE SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SINGLE BAND OF
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLC, BUT WITHOUT CLEARLY-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL INFLOW TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. 99W IS CURRENTLY IN A REGION
OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EASTERLY WITH NO CLEARLY DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE (28-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
DYNAMIC MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE INTENSITY AND STORM MOTION OF 99W,
WITH GFS THE MOST AGRESSIVE AND PREDICTING 99W REACHING TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH SHORTLY AFTER CROSSING THE PHILIPPINES ON 9 NOVEMBER.
OTHER MODELS SHOW WEAK OR NO DEVELOPMENT AFTER 99W MAKES ITS
PHILIPPINE CROSSING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
回复(1) 喜欢(0)     评分
Elite
荣誉会员-暖池
荣誉会员-暖池
  • 注册日期2004-11-13
  • 最后登录2018-01-17
  • 粉丝105
  • 关注44
  • 发帖数9331
  • 来自
6楼#
发布于:2017-11-08 13:56
meow锛05Z再发一篇新的,只有GFS看好。

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.6N 130.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10...
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
倒想问何以为「看好」
GFS是当中强度预测的最高的但也不过为一TS、STS之间的TC
同样欧中也报出大概TS的强度在南海维持,不明JTWC的「OTHER MODELS SHOW WEAK OR NO DEVELOPMENT AFTER 99W MAKES ITS  PHILIPPINE CROSSING. 」是建基于哪个预报的判断

要说GFS今次的预报强度是否特別突出于其他数值预报,我看不是
要说GFS是否看好,论一个只有TS强度而且有逐步调弱趋势 我看也不是

GFS今年的强度上的FALSE ALARM 很强,9月入秋后尤其明显
[Elite于2017-11-08 13:57编辑了帖子]
影響香港熱帶氣旋路徑圖:http://www.hktctrack.net/ 將軍澳日出康城首都氣象站天氣情況:http://hktctrack.net/weatherstation/LOHASPark/ 新浪微博:http://weibo.com/zodiacvirgin/
回复(1) 喜欢(0)     评分
meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
  • 注册日期2011-09-08
  • 最后登录2018-01-18
  • 粉丝412
  • 关注38
  • 发帖数17037
  • 来自
7楼#
发布于:2017-11-08 17:24
Elite锛毜瓜胛屎我晕缚春谩
GFS是当中强度预测的最高的但也不过为一TS、STS之间的TC
同样欧中也报出大概TS的强度在南海维持,不明JTWC的「OTHER MODELS SHOW WEAK OR NO DEVELOPMENT AFTER ...
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
至少JMA预期周五TD。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
禾愛糖
超强台风
超强台风
  • 注册日期2012-11-05
  • 最后登录2018-01-17
  • 粉丝260
  • 关注115
  • 发帖数9563
  • 来自
8楼#
发布于:2017-11-09 00:16
gfs預期在菲中陸地上仍然能增強成TS。
看來菲東環流的確很好,只是發展時間不足而已。
從前的我打倒今天的我。

回复(1) 喜欢(0)     评分
Elite
荣誉会员-暖池
荣誉会员-暖池
  • 注册日期2004-11-13
  • 最后登录2018-01-17
  • 粉丝105
  • 关注44
  • 发帖数9331
  • 来自
9楼#
发布于:2017-11-09 01:16
禾愛糖锛歡fs預期在菲中陸地上仍然能增強成TS。
看來菲東環流的確很好,只是發展時間不足而已。
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
看它的样子实在像榕树海高斯之辈
影響香港熱帶氣旋路徑圖:http://www.hktctrack.net/ 將軍澳日出康城首都氣象站天氣情況:http://hktctrack.net/weatherstation/LOHASPark/ 新浪微博:http://weibo.com/zodiacvirgin/
回复(0) 喜欢(1)     评分
上一页
游客

返回顶部