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[SH(17-18)]苏门答腊西南93S - 4.4S 95.7E

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更多 发布于:2017-11-08 22:07
93S INVEST 171108 1200   3.5S   98.0E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20171108.1400.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.93SINVEST.15kts-NAmb-35S-980E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2017-11-10 09:49编辑了帖子]
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Society is dead, long live society!
是誰令青山也變,變了俗氣的嘴臉?又是誰令碧海也變,變作濁流滔天?
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
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1楼#
发布于:2017-11-08 23:13
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Wednesday 8 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 11 November 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no significant tropical lows in the Western Region at present and none
are expected to develop over the next three days.
A weak tropical low lies to the west of Sumatra, Indonesia and north of the
Western Region. The system will move slowly south and develop further on
Thursday and Friday before taking a more westward track from Saturday and
Sunday. It is likely to stay north of the Western Region, however if it does
move into the far northwest parts it will likely be as a tropical low.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
                                   Thursday: Very Low
                                   Friday: Very Low
                                   Saturday: Very Low
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2楼#
发布于:2017-11-09 09:50
Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC)

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Southern Indonesia area
Issued Thursday, 9 November 2017, 08.00 Western Indonesia Time

Current Tropical Cyclone in the Southern Indonesia area:
None.

Tropical cyclone development possibility:
Suspect area with minimum pressure 1010 mb is observed in Indian Ocean near 6.1S 97.4E, about 642km west north west of Bengkul , and moving slowly to the South.

Possibility to develop into tropical cyclone:
Friday (tomorrow) : small possibility
Saturday (tomorrow +1): small possibility
Sunday (tomorrow +2) : small possibility

Note:
Small possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is less than 10%.
Medium possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is about 20%-40%.
Large possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is more than 50%.

Southern Indonesia area is area within equator to 11 S and 90 to 141 E.
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