9914dan
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[WP]1724号热带气旋“海葵”(30W.Haikui)机构发报专帖

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更多 发布于:2017-11-09 03:18

图片:wp992017.20171108190517.gif


WTPN21 PGTW 081930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 126.0E TO 14.8N 117.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 125.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.6N 130.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 125.6E, 313 NM ESE OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION COVERING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 080910Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
DISTURBANCE, AND LOOSE ORGANIZATION AROUND A BROAD CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 081307Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION INDICATED CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL TURNING, WITH WINDS 5-10
KNOTS IN THE SE QUADRANT AND AN ISOLATED REGION OF 20 KT WINDS IN
THE NE QUADRANT, THOUGH SOME WIND BARBS ARE FLAGGED FOR
CONTAMINATION. A RADAR MOSAIC FROM PAGASA SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, CLEAR ROTATION, AND FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND A SOMEWHAT RAGGED CENTER CLEAR OF CONVECTION. 99W IS
CURRENTLY IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WITH SHEAR VALUES INCREASING RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH.
WIND SHEAR IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, TOWARDS WHICH 99W IS PROPAGATING,
IS ALSO LOW. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS, AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS IMPROVED. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE (28-29 CELSIUS). HOWEVER, LAND
INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINES MAY INHIBIT NEAR-TERM DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE INTENSITY AND STORM MOTION OF
99W, WITH GFS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC AND PREDICTING 99W REACHING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SHORTLY AFTER CROSSING THE PHILIPPINES IN
APPROXIMATELY 24 HOURS. OTHER MODELS SHOW WEAK DEVELOPMENT IN LATER
TAUS, OR DO NOT MAINTAIN THE CIRCULATION AT ALL, AFTER 99W TRACKS
OVER THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091930Z.
//
NNNN
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t02436
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发布于:2017-11-09 11:00
JTWC/30W/#01/11-09 00Z

图片:wp3017.gif


WTPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081921NOV2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z --- NEAR 12.8N 124.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 124.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 13.8N 121.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 14.8N 119.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 15.8N 116.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 16.7N 115.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 17.3N 112.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 17.8N 111.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 18.9N 110.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 123.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 226 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 081930).//
NNNN
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t02436
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发布于:2017-11-09 11:01
JTWC/30W/#01/11-09 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 226 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
WHICH IS BASED ON A 082305Z 89GHZ AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWING A LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE WITH A BURST OF STRONG CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS AND IS
BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO 2.0 (25 TO 30
KNOTS). A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM CATARMAN, PHILIPPINES IS
REPORTING A STATION PRESSURE OF 1002 MB WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS AN ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE SYSTEM.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ROBUST AS IT TAPS INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY
JET, WHILE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW EXHIBITING SUBSTANTIAL DIFFLUENCE.
CURRENTLY TD 30W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE NORTH    
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 30W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE STR. OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS TD 30W WILL TRACK OVER THE PHILIPPINES. DESPITE
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, LAND INTERACTION WITH THE
ARCHIPELAGO WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION, AND TD 30W
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THIS TIME.
BETWEEN TAU 18 AND 24 THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
VERY FAVORABLE AND TD 30W WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS AROUND TAU
48. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY COMPACT WITH THE 34-
KNOT WIND RADII REMAINING CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM CENTER.  
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD TD 30W WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA OF LOWER
SSTS, THIS COMBINED WITH DETERIORATING UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING JUST BEFORE TAU 72. AROUND TAU
96 THE STEERING RIDGE WILL HAVE WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY TO CAUSE A
TRACK SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST STEERING TD 30W OVER HAINAN AND
CLOSER TO THE WESTERLY JET. LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASED WIND
SHEAR WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID-RANGE FORECAST DUE TO THE WELL-
ESTABLISHED DEEP-LAYERED STEERING RIDGE. HOWEVER THERE ARE SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THAT ORIGINATE FROM THE INITIAL 12 HOURS
AND IN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK WHILE OVER THE PHILIPPINES. BY
TAU 96 AND 120 MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT POSITION
AND TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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t02436
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发布于:2017-11-09 15:15
JMA/TD-a/11-09 06Z
熱帯低気圧
平成29年11月09日16時15分 発表

图片:JMA_TD-a_11-09_06Z.png


<09日15時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 フィリピン
中心位置 北緯 12度55分(12.9度)
東経 122度50分(122.8度)
進行方向、速さ 西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<10日03時の予報>
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 南シナ海
予報円の中心 北緯 13度55分(13.9度)
東経 120度10分(120.2度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)

<10日15時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 南シナ海
予報円の中心 北緯 15度00分(15.0度)
東経 117度30分(117.5度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
[t02436于2017-11-09 15:17编辑了帖子]
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tcfa_gw
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发布于:2017-11-09 15:38
CMA/TD 18/11-09 06Z
ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 090600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 18 INITIAL TIME 090600 UTC
00HR 13.0N 122.8E 1000HPA 15M/S
MOVE NW 28KM/H
P+12HR 14.3N 120.1E 998HPA 18M/S
P+24HR 15.4N 117.7E 998HPA 18M/S=
NNNN

图片:SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20171109140000062.jpg

[tcfa_gw于2017-11-09 15:51编辑了帖子]
ただひとつの“今”を歌いつづける。
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发布于:2017-11-09 17:27
JTWC/30W/#02/11-09 06Z
WTPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090600Z --- NEAR 13.3N 122.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 122.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 14.3N 120.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 15.4N 117.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 16.4N 115.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 17.0N 114.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 17.6N 112.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 18.1N 110.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 19.2N 110.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 122.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z,
100300Z AND 100900Z.//
NNNN

图片:wp3017.gif

[Luigi728于2017-11-09 17:28编辑了帖子]
即使可能性非常非常小,但我還是願意相信,某一天我會等到奇蹟的發生。無論你對我有沒有感覺,無論你會不會被我感動,無論這一切會不會有結果,我都願意無怨無悔的為你執著到底。就如天文台說「即使再來一次,也會同樣發出八號風球」一樣,即使再來一次,我也會願意為你付出一切。即使這個故事永遠沒有結局,這一切也值得。因為,親愛的,我愛你。因為我愛你,所以我願意繼續等待奇蹟,繼續等待我們的結局,繼續為了我們幸運快樂的結局而奮鬥下去!
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Luigi728
论坛版主-副热带高压
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6楼#
发布于:2017-11-09 17:27
JTWC/30W/#02/11-09 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122
NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DESPITE TRACKING OVER THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 090630Z SSMI 85GHZ
IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS
IMPROVING WITH A DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS). TD
30W IS TRACKING QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).    
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR THROUGH TAU 72. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TRACKING OVER
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 12 WITH FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A 100-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.  
   C. AFTER TAU 72, DYNAMIC GUIDANCE SPLITS INTO TWO DISTINCT GROUPS
WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE FIRST GROUP
(AFUM, UKMO, HWRF, NVGM, ECMF AND EEMN) WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
AND TRACK THE REMNANTS SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE
SECOND GROUP (AEMN, AVNO, CTCX AND UEMN) DEPICT A SLOW POLEWARD
TRACK. IN GENERAL, THE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE INCREASING WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST CHINA AFTER TAU 72, WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN
THE STR AND LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT TRACK SLOW-DOWN. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK FAVORS A SLOW POLEWARD MOTION OVER HAINAN ISLAND AS THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY FLOW AND TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR. DUE TO THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST
AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
即使可能性非常非常小,但我還是願意相信,某一天我會等到奇蹟的發生。無論你對我有沒有感覺,無論你會不會被我感動,無論這一切會不會有結果,我都願意無怨無悔的為你執著到底。就如天文台說「即使再來一次,也會同樣發出八號風球」一樣,即使再來一次,我也會願意為你付出一切。即使這個故事永遠沒有結局,這一切也值得。因為,親愛的,我愛你。因為我愛你,所以我願意繼續等待奇蹟,繼續等待我們的結局,繼續為了我們幸運快樂的結局而奮鬥下去!
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meow
世纪风王
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发布于:2017-11-09 18:24
JMA/TD-a/11-09 09Z

图片:a-00.png


熱帯低気圧
平成29年11月09日19時15分 発表

<09日18時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 フィリピン
中心位置 北緯 13度35分(13.6度)
東経 122度05分(122.1度)
進行方向、速さ 西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<10日06時の予報>
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 南シナ海
予報円の中心 北緯 14度10分(14.2度)
東経 119度40分(119.7度)
進行方向、速さ 西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)

<10日18時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 南シナ海
予報円の中心 北緯 15度05分(15.1度)
東経 117度20分(117.3度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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8楼#
发布于:2017-11-09 18:26
CMA/TD18/11-09 09Z

图片:2017.11.09.17热带低压TD18预报图.jpg


ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 090900
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 18 INITIAL TIME 090900 UTC
00HR 13.5N 122.2E 1000HPA 15M/S
MOVE NW 25KM/H
P+12HR 14.6N 119.7E 998HPA 18M/S
P+24HR 15.7N 117.7E 985HPA 25M/S
P+36HR 16.7N 115.8E 980HPA 30M/S
P+48HR 17.3N 114.3E 975HPA 33M/S
P+60HR 17.7N 113.1E 970HPA 35M/S
P+72HR 18.0N 112.0E 965HPA 38M/S
P+96HR 18.2N 111.1E 975HPA 33M/S
P+120HR 18.2N 110.2E 985HPA 25M/S=
NNNN
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iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2017-11-09 18:27
CMA/TD18/热带低压预报/11-09 18:00
台 风 公 报
预报:张静  签发:钱奇峰   2017 年  11 月  09 日  18 时

中央气象台9日18时发布热带低压预报:

热带低压于今天(9日)下午在菲律宾群岛一带生成,下午5点钟其中心位于海南三沙市永兴岛东偏南方向约1120公里,就是北纬13.5度、东经122.2度,中心附近最大风力有7级(15米/秒),中心最低气压为1000百帕。

预计, 该热带低压将以每小时25公里左右的速度向西北方向移动,强度逐渐加强,将于明天上午前后进入南海东部海域,并发展为今年第24号台风,尔后逐渐向海南岛东南部一带沿海靠近,强度逐渐加强,最强可达台风级(12-13级,33-40米/秒)。

大风预报:9日20时到10日20时,南海大部有7-8级大风,阵风9-10级,南海中部偏东的局部海域有9-10级大风,阵风可达11级。

图片:2017.11.09.17热带低压TD18预报图.jpg

图片:2017110920热带低压TD18未来24小时大风预报.png

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