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[IO]孟加拉湾低压BOB 06(90B) - 15.8N 84.2E

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更多 发布于:2017-11-12 01:38
90B INVEST 171111 1200  11.6N   82.8E IO     15   NA

图片:20171111.1700.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.90BINVEST.15kts-NAmb-116N-828E.100pc.jpg

[9914dan于2017-11-17 22:54编辑了帖子]
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1楼#
发布于:2017-11-12 17:31
90B

图片:2017IO90_4KMIRIMG_201711120830[1].gif

图片:2017IO90_4KMSRBDC_201711120830[1].jpg

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发布于:2017-11-14 06:17

图片:20171113.1800.msg1.ir.BD.90BINVEST.15kts-1010mb.jpg


GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 13 NOVEMBER 2017.
PART-I: NO STORM WARNING
PART:-II
THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL AND NEIGHBOURHOOD AND THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDING UPTO 7.6 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS (.)

TCIN50 DEMS 131800
SATELLITE BULLETIN BASED ON INSAT PIC OF 131700 UTC (.)
REGION COVERED BETWEEN LAT 50.0?N TO 30.0?S AND LONG 40.0?E TO 125.0?E (.)
SALIENT FEATURES;-

VORTEX:-
VORTEX OVER WC BAY & N/HOOD CENTRED WITH IN HALF A DEG OF 14.1N/83.5E (.)
INTENSITY T1.0 (.) ASSTD BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD INT TO V INT CONVTN OVER
WC BAY & N/HOOD (.)
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发布于:2017-11-15 01:43

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


TPPN10 PGTW 141452
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90B (NE OF SRI LANKA)
B. 14/1430Z
C. 12.31N
D. 83.72E
E. THREE/MET8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   14/1101Z  12.26N  83.36E  GPMI

   LOWE

TXIO28 KNES 141457
TCSNIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90B)
B.  14/1400Z
C.  12.4N
D.  83.9E
E.  THREE/MET-8
F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
AND A CENTER LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM A VERY SMALL COLD OVERCAST. THIS
RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET AND PT ARE ALSO
1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...TURK
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发布于:2017-11-15 01:57

图片:WMBas208.png



图片:20171114.1101.gpm.x.89h_1deg.90BINVEST.25kts-1002mb-122N-825E.54pc.jpg


90B INVEST 171114 1800  13.8N   84.4E IO   25  1004

图片:abiosair.jpg


ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/141800Z-151800ZNOV2017//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST
90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 84.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N
84.0E, APPROXIMATELY 218 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED
BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL TURNING, WITH EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES, TO THE
SOUTH OF CONVECTION. A 141101Z 89GHZ GPM IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH, AND LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE WRAPPING INTO A
LOOSELY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 90B IS LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR (10-15 KT), WITH INCREASED
SHEAR TO THE NORTH. EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT TURN POLEWARD, SETTING UP A
RIDGING PATTERN OVER 90B. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE IN THE BAY OF BENGAL (27-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL DYNAMIC
MODELS PREDICT WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD, BEFORE FORECASTED TO MOVE ASHORE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


TCIN50 DEMS 131800
SATELLITE BULLETIN BASED ON INSAT PIC OF 131700 UTC (.)
REGION COVERED BETWEEN LAT 50.0?N TO 30.0?S AND LONG 40.0?E TO 125.0?E (.)
SALIENT FEATURES;-

VORTEX:-
VORTEX OVER WC BAY & N/HOOD CENTRED WITH IN HALF A DEG OF 14.1N/83.5E (.)
INTENSITY T1.0 (.) ASSTD BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD INT TO V INT CONVTN OVER
WC BAY & N/HOOD (.)

TPPN10 PGTW 141812
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90B (NE OF SRI LANKA)
B. 14/1745Z
C. 12.84N
D. 84.45E
E. THREE/MET8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   LOWE
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5楼#
发布于:2017-11-15 16:57
90B这个系统应该会持续东北行吧?

图片:2017IO90_4KMIRIMG_201711150800.gif

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发布于:2017-11-15 21:50
BULLETIN NO. : 01 (BOB 06/2017)
TIME OF ISSUE: 1230 HOURS IST DATED: 15.11.2017

Sub: Depression over westcentral Bay of Bengal off Andhra Pradesh Coast
Latest observations, radar and satellite imageries indicate that a depression has formed over westcentral
Bay of Bengal off Andhra Pradesh coast. It lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 15
th November, 2017 near
Latitude 15.0? N and Longitude 83.0 ?E, about 230 km southeast of Machilipatnam, 300 km south of
Visakhapatnam and 510 km south-southwest of Gopalpur. The system is very likely to move initially northwards
during next 24 hours maintaining its intensity. It is very likely to move north-northeastwards thereafter and
weaken gradually.


 (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.1N 84.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 84.2E, APPROXIMATELY 130
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH MULTIPLE MESO-VORTICES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE
CENTER. A 150342Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A BROAD CENTER WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE
NORTH QUADRANT. A 150318Z OSCAT IMAGE INDICATES A DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

图片:abiosair.jpg


图片:20171115.0900.msg1.x.vis2km.90BINVEST.25kts-1002mb-158N-842E.100pc.jpg

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发布于:2017-11-15 22:56
不知不觉已经30KT,升格03B也不为过

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发布于:2017-11-15 22:57
是的 大致沿印度东岸海岸线平行移动
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发布于:2017-11-15 23:04
桑美和伊欧凯锛毑恢痪跻丫30KT,升格03B也不为过鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
北印度洋要等35kt才会轮到JTWC升格,除非即将造成重大威胁。
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