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[EP]TCFA - 东太平洋94E - 18.1N 130.3W - NHC:70%

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更多 发布于:2017-11-12 02:31
94E INVEST 171111 1800  11.8N  118.9W EPAC   20  1009

A weak area of low pressure located about 950 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized cloudiness and showers.  Gradual development of this
system is possible before upper-level winds become unfavorable for
development by the middle of next week.  This system is expected to
move west-northwestward across the open eastern Pacific during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

图片:20171111.1830.goes15.x.vis1km.94EINVEST.20kts-NAmb-118N-1189W.100pc.jpg


[9914dan于2017-11-14 20:04编辑了帖子]
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1楼#
发布于:2017-11-12 09:39
50%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM PST Sat Nov 11 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low pressure
system located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula is gradually becoming better defined.
Shower and thunderstorm activity is also beginning to show some
signs of organization, and a tropical depression could form during
the next day or so if this recent development trend continues. By
the middle of next week, however, upper-level winds are expected
become quite unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation to occur.
This system is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward
across the open eastern Pacific during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Stewart


图片:two_pac_2d1[1].png

图片:two_pac_5d0[1].png

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2楼#
发布于:2017-11-12 10:20
94E

图片:2017EP94_4KMIRIMG_201711120130[1].gif

图片:2017EP94_4KMSRBDC_201711120130[1].jpg

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3楼#
发布于:2017-11-12 16:57

图片:ep9417 20171112 0600Z.gif


WTPN21 PHNC 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 120.9W TO 14.5N 127.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 120600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 121.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7N
120.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12N 121.5W, APPROXIMATELY 570NM SOUTHWEST
OF CLARION ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING CONVECTION DIRECTLY ABOVE A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A 120507Z SCATSAT-1 OSCAT PASS SHOWS 25 KNOT WIND BARBS
IN THE NORTHWESTERN ARC OF THE DISTURBANCE. 94E IS BENEFITTING FROM
GENERALLY POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BUT STILL SUFFERING FROM
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SHEAR VALUES INCREASE
RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND DROP RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
DISTURBANCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) AND
WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS GENERALLY
FAVOR STEADY DEVELOPMENT BUT DISSIPATE 94E SHORTLY AFTER REACHING
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY, LIKELY DUE TO THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING
NORTHWEST INTO A HOSTILE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130900Z.//
NNNN
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发布于:2017-11-12 17:22
70%
 
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Sat Nov 11 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Recent reports from a nearby ship indicate that the low pressure
system located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula has continued to become better
defined.  Only a slight increase in the organization of the
associated thunderstorm activity would result in the formation of a
tropical depression on Sunday. By the middle of next week, however,
upper-level winds are expected become quite unfavorable for tropical
cyclone formation to occur. This system is forecast to move
west-northwestward to northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the open
eastern Pacific during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Stewart


图片:two_pac_2d1[2].png

图片:two_pac_5d0[1].png

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5楼#
发布于:2017-11-12 17:43
TXPZ28 KNES 120901
TCSENP
CCA

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94E)

B.  12/0600Z

C.  13.0N

D.  122.4W

E.  FIVE/GOES-W

F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/WINDSAT/AMSU

H.  REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR POSITION BASED ON 0542Z AMSU DATA WHICH
SUGGESTED THE CENTER WAS FARTHER WEST. GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS
IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    12/0211Z 12.7N 120.8W WINDSAT
    12/0542Z 13.0N 122.4W AMSU


图片:vis0[1].gif

图片:bd0[1].gif

图片:wv0[1].gif

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6楼#
发布于:2017-11-13 18:07
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Sun Nov 12 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure system located
about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California continues to produce widespread cloudiness and
disorganized showers. Although environmental conditions are
gradually becoming less conducive for development to occur, only a
slight increase in organization would result in the formation of a
tropical depression later tonight or on Monday. By Tuesday morning,
however, upper-level winds are expected become quite unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation to occur.  This system is forecast to
move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the open eastern
Pacific during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

图片:two_pac_2d1 (1).png



WTPN21 PHNC 130800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120851Z NOV 17//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC
120900)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12N 121.5W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16N 129.5W APPROXIMATED 880NM
WEST OF CLARION ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT 94E HAS PLENTY OF CONVECTION BUT NO COHESIVE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. DESPITE WARM (27-28 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 94E IS TRACKING INTO A VERY HOSTILE
VETICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS ARE BACKING
OFF FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS, WITH THE MAJORITY NOW DISSIPATING 94E
BEFORE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1021 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. THIS CANCELS REF A.//
NNNN
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7楼#
发布于:2017-11-14 00:01
补图
iam最小值锛歍ropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Sun Nov 12 2017

For the eastern North P...
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    它这个图就增加了cancelled,路径都没改,所以我不贴
    2017-11-14 09:50
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8楼#
发布于:2017-11-14 09:51
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM PST Mon Nov 13 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A small, well-defined low pressure system located more than 1300
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is producing an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms
near and to the northeast of the surface center. Upper-level winds
continue to become less conducive for development, and are forecast
to become quite unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation by
Tuesday.  This system is expected to move west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph across the open eastern Pacific during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

图片:two_pac_2d1.png

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