颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[SH(17-18)]爪哇岛以南一级热带气旋“查帕卡”(95S.Cempaka) - 环流袖珍,近岸徘徊,南半球新风季首个命名风暴、三年来首个印尼命名气旋

楼主#
更多 发布于:2017-11-20 09:16
95S INVEST 171120 0000   8.6S  109.6E SHEM   15  1010

图片:20171120.0040.himawari-8.vis.95S.INVEST.15kts.996mb.8.6S.109E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2017-11-30 12:20编辑了帖子]
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一上高樓萬里愁,蒹葭楊柳似汀洲。溪雲初起日沉閣,山雨欲來風滿樓。
meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
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1楼#
发布于:2017-11-20 09:33
GFS特别看好发展;ECMWF对此毫无反应。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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meow
世纪风王
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2楼#
发布于:2017-11-20 14:13
BoM展望周末会有机会发展。

IDW10800
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 20 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 23 November 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the Western Region at present. A weak tropical low may develop in a trough just south of Indonesia over the next couple days and then linger or move slowly west. It is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone in the short term, but the risk increases for next weekend.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:
Very Low
Wednesday:
Very Low
Thursday:
Very Low
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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jaminniu
热带低压
热带低压
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3楼#
发布于:2017-11-21 10:49
北半球风季就北结束了吗?南半球开始了。
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meow
世纪风王
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4楼#
发布于:2017-11-21 15:25
ECMWF看好周末开始发展,下周四达到巅峰。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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meow
世纪风王
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5楼#
发布于:2017-11-21 19:04

图片:abiosair.jpg


AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.8S 111.8E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA.
GEOSTATIONARY MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES LOW LEVEL TURNING
AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 0900Z
91HZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS ENHANCED COLOCATED
WITH THE DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE DISTURBANCE. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE (5-10 KTS) OVER THE SYSTEM, BUT
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY TO THE SOUTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE, 27-28C, IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF JAKARTA, BUT DECREASE
SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE SOUTH.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT, WITH NAVGEM
AND ECMWF PREDICTING DEVELOPMENT IN SEVERAL DAYS, BUT OTHER MODELS
DO NOT SUSTAIN THE CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
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6楼#
发布于:2017-11-21 22:35
IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Tuesday 21 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Friday 24 November 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no significant tropical lows in the Western Region at present. A weak
tropical low may develop in a trough just south of Indonesia over the next
couple days and then linger or move slowly to the south or west.
It is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone in the short term, but the
risk increases slightly from Friday and over the weekend.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
                                   Wednesday: Very Low
                                   Thursday: Very Low
                                   Friday: Low.

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Low:          5% to 20%
Moderate:     20 to 50%                    High:         Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.




TPXS10 PGTW 212056 COR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95S (S OF JAVA)
B. 21/2030Z
C. 10.17S
D. 111.78E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   DAVIS
[刚打酱油回来于2017-11-22 08:06编辑了帖子]
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7楼#
发布于:2017-11-23 03:08
Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC)

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Southern Indonesia area
Issued Wednesday, November 22nd 2017 08.45 Western Indonesia Time

Current Tropical Cyclone in the Southern Indonesia area:
None.

Tropical cyclone development possibility:
Low Pressure with minimum pressure 1007 mb is observed in Indian Ocean near 10 S 112 E, and moving southwestward or westward.

Possibility to develop into tropical cyclone:
Thursday (tomorrow) : small possibility
Friday (tomorrow +1): small possibility
Saturday (tomorrow +2) : small possibility

Note:
Small possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is less than 10%.
Medium possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is about 20%-40%.
Large possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is more than 50%.

Southern Indonesia area is area within equator to 11 S and 90 to 141 E.
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8楼#
发布于:2017-11-23 03:09

图片:20171122.1740.himawari8.ir.BD.95SINVEST.20kts-1007mb.jpg


TPXS10 PGTW 221801
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95S (S OF JAVA)
B. 22/1740Z
C. 9.88S
D. 111.46E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 86NM FROM
LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
DBO THE CONSTRAINT OF NOT LOWERING THE T-NO WITHIN THE FIRST
48HRS AT NIGHT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   LOWE

TXXS28 KNES 221804
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95S)
B.  22/1730Z
C.  9.6S
D.  111.8E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .5 ON LOG10 SPIRAL FOR A DT OF 2.5. MET=1.0
AND PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING THE CHANGE IN FT TO 0.5
OVER 6 HRS DURING THE FIRST 24 HRS OF DEVELOPMENT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...KIM
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超强台风
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9楼#
发布于:2017-11-23 06:57
沒了

TPXS10 PGTW 222123
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95S (S OF JAVA)
B. 22/2050Z
C. 9.40S
D. 111.78E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY. FLARING CNVCTN SHEARED 97NM S FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF
TOO WEAK. MET AND PT NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. DBO THE
CONSTRAINT OF NOT LOWERING THE T-NO WITHIN THE FIRST
48HRS AT NIGHT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   22/1724Z  9.85S  111.58E  AMS2
   22/1851Z  9.90S  111.50E  GPMI
   22/1906Z  9.93S  111.60E  SSMI
   22/1956Z  9.77S  111.58E  SSMS

   LOWE

图片:20171122.2200.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.95SINVEST.20kts-1007mb-98S-1116E.100pc.jpg

[iam最小值于2017-11-23 11:44编辑了帖子]
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