9914dan
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[2017]爪哇岛以南二级热带气旋“达利亚”(03U/01S.Dahlia) - 印尼海域短时间内再迎命名气旋

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更多 发布于:2017-11-23 22:09
96S INVEST 171123 1200   4.3S   93.7E SHEM   20  1007

图片:QQ图片20171123223120.jpg


[9914dan于2017-12-08 01:14编辑了帖子]
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meow
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发布于:2017-11-23 22:41
白天扫描有30kt
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2017-11-24 16:02
ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/231800Z-241800ZNOV2017//
RMKS/
………………
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
4.2S 93.6E, APPROXIMATELY 522 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH OVERALL BROAD MIDLEVEL TURNING. A 231518Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE
FURTHER REVEALS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, HIGH (25-30
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH WITH AN UNLIKELY CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:abiosair.jpg

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刚打酱油回来
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发布于:2017-11-25 08:28
Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC)

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Southern Indonesia area
Issued Friday, November 24th 2017 09.20 Western Indonesia Time

Current Tropical Cyclone in the Southern Indonesia area:
None.

Tropical cyclone development possibility:
Low with minimum pressure 1007 mb is observed in Indian Ocean, southwest of Lampung near 5 S 95E and moving slowly to the southwest.
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933954
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发布于:2017-11-25 20:37
MEDIUM
 

图片:abiosair.jpg


(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.2S 93.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7S 93.1E, APPROXIMATELY 391
NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY COVERED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 250951Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING AND THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. A 250341Z PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS INDICATES 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, AND AN
ISOLATED AREA OF 25 KNOT WINDS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS STRENGTHENED,
ENHANCING CONVECTION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MODERATE (10-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS STIFLING DEVELOPMENT, AND VWS VALUES
INCREASE SHARPLY TO THE WEST. WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE FAVORABLE, WITH A TIGHT SST GRADIENT TOWARDS
LOWER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE
TIMING AND DEGREE OF INTENSIFICATION. SOME MODELS PORTRAY NEAR-TERM
LIMITED DEVELOPMENT, WHILE OTHERS PROJECT INTENSIFICATION IN THE
LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO
28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
[933954于2017-11-25 20:39编辑了帖子]
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933954
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发布于:2017-11-25 21:02
JAKARTA升TD

图片:360截图20171125211121075.jpg

图片:IDJ22001.gif


SITUATION
At 12:00 UTC Tropical Depression TD96S 1005 hPa was within 30 nautical miles of 5,8 S 93,4 E moving southwest at 10 knots.
This tropical depression may develop into a Tropical Cyclone in the next 6-12 hours.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 20 knots expected to increase to 25 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.
00:00 UTC 26 November:  Within 60 nautical miles of 6,6 S 92,5 E
                        Central pressure 1003 hPa.
                        Wind speed reaching 20 knots near centre.
12:00 UTC 26 November: Within 90 nautical miles of 7,3 S 91,4 E
                        Central pressure 1002 hPa.
                        Wind speed reaching 25 knots near centre.
REMARKS
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 19:00 UTC 25 November 2017.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA
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meow
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发布于:2017-11-25 21:08
933954锛歋ITUATION
At 12:00 UTC Tropical Depression TD96S 1005 hPa was within 30 nautical miles of 5,8 S 93,4 E moving southwest...
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
既然说半天内可能增强到热带气旋,为何还预报24小时以后才25kt?
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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wwwawa
热带风暴
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7楼#
发布于:2017-11-25 21:35
meow锛毤热凰蛋胩炷诳赡茉銮康饺却位乖け24小时以后才25kt?鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
有没有可能是单位被人手残打错了? 单位应该是m/s?
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meow
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发布于:2017-11-26 02:31
wwwawa锛氂忻挥锌赡苁堑ノ槐蝗耸植写虼砹耍 单位应该是m/s?鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
更不会是m/s,没看到任何迹象能在一天之内达到二级热带气旋。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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刚打酱油回来
超强台风
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发布于:2017-11-26 03:13

图片:20171125.1800.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.96SINVEST.25kts-1004mb-67S-931E.100pc.jpg


TPXS11 PGTW 251819
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96S (SW OF SUMATRA)
B. 25/1800Z
C. 7.01S
D. 92.76E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 1.5 DT. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   BERMEA

TXXS29 KNES 251852
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96S)
B.  25/1730Z
C.  6.4S
D.  92.9E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...SHEAR PATTERN. CIRCULAR LL CLOUDS AND A CENTER NEAR TO A
SMALL AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET IS 1.5 AND PT
IS 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...RAMIREZ
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