9914dan
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[IO]阿拉伯海东部特强气旋风暴“奥科奇”(BOB 07/03B.Ockhi) - 北印十二月最强旋,风切导致开眼不顺 - IMD:85KT JTWC:100KT

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更多 发布于:2017-11-27 14:03
91B INVEST 171127 0600   6.0N   85.2E IO   15   NA

图片:QQ图片20171127142304.jpg

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论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2017-11-27 15:56
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 27.11.2017 BASED ON
0300 UTC OF 27.11.2017.

BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA:
YESTERDAY’S LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL & ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST SRILANKA NOW LIES AS A TROUGH OF LOW AT MEAN SEA LEVEL OVER SOUTHEAST
ARABIAN SEA & ADJOINING MALDIVES AREA AT 0300UTC OF 27th NOVEMBER, 2017. SCATTERED
LOW MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LIE OVER REST
SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL & SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA.

IMD在几天前的展望中提到该低压区,目前位于斯里兰卡东南。EC今天00Z预报未来将移入阿拉伯海,强度能达到强气旋风暴,GFS反应则比较冷淡。未来系统可能与孟加拉湾新生成的风暴互相影响。
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ray790601
热带低压
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发布于:2017-11-28 10:47
JTWC 02Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
5.4N 83.5E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI
LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UNORGANIZED AND
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. A 272131Z
89GHZ AMSU IMAGE SHOWS AN ILL DEFINED LLCC WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, OFFSET BY
MODERATE TO STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (27-28 CELSIUS). GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS ARE
SLOW TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:20171128.0200.himawari-8.ircolor.91B.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.5.4N.83.5E.100pc.jpg

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发布于:2017-11-29 02:15

图片:abiosair.jpg


ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/281800Z-291800ZNOV2017//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280151ZNOV2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 83.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 83.0E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
281317Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT,
BUT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (28-
30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS STEADILY DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS
IT TRACKS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, BUT INCREASING LAND INTERACTION, OVER THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
BASED ON AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AND ANTICIPATED FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//


图片:20171128.1800.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.91BINVEST.25kts-1004mb-60N-823E.100pc.jpg


TPIO10 PGTW 281856
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91B (SE OF SRI LANKA)
B. 28/1800Z
C. 5.84N
D. 82.21E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   MARTINEZ
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meow
世纪风王
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发布于:2017-11-29 10:54

图片:io9117.gif


WTIO21 PGTW 290200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.0N 82.0E TO 8.0N 77.0E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
290000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.0N
81.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 83.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 81.7E, APPROXIMATELY 121
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. A
290043Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER BOTH THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTURBANCE, AND
A 281614Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS SHOWS 20-25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
PERIPHERIES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER
CONSOLIDATE, AND POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH LAND, AS IT TRACKS TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
300200Z.//
NNNN
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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meow
世纪风王
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发布于:2017-11-29 14:44
已升格低压BOB 07。

BULLETIN NO. : 01 (BOB 07/2017)
TIME OF ISSUE: 1150 HOURS IST DATED: 29.11.2017

Sub: Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal off Sri Lanka Coast
Latest observations and satellite imageries indicate that a depression has formed over southwest Bay of
Bengal off Sri Lanka coast. It lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 29th November, 2017 near Latitude 6.5?
N and Longitude 81.8 ?E, about 80 km to the east-southeast of Hambantota and 500 km east southeast of
Kanyakumari. The system is very likely to move westnorthwestwards and cross Sri Lanka coast close to
northeast of Hambantota around noon of today. It would then continue to move west-northwestwards across Sri
Lanka and emerge into Comorin area
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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wwwawa
强热带风暴
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发布于:2017-11-29 18:15
系统的结构不错  有望成旋

图片:2017IO91_4KMIRIMG_201711290915.gif

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刚打酱油回来
超强台风
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发布于:2017-11-30 00:21

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


TCIN50 DEMS 291500
SATELLITE BULLETIN BASED ON INSAT PIC OF 291500 UTC (.)
REGION COVERED BETWEEN LAT 50.0?N TO 30.0?S AND LONG 40.0?E TO 125.0?E (.)
SALIENT FEATURES;-

VORTEX (COMORIN) :-
VORTEX OVER E COMORIN OFF SW SRILANKA COAST CENTRED NEAR 6.2N/79.5E (.)
INTENSITY T1.5 (.) ASSTD BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD INT TO V INT CONVTN OVER
AREA BET LAT 3.0N TO 8.0N LONG 76.0E TO 81.0E SW SRILANKA & COMORIN (.)
MINIMUM CTT MINUS 90 DEG C (.)

TPIO10 PGTW 291512
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91B (W OF SRI LANKA)
B. 29/1415Z
C. 6.32N
D. 79.83E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT YIELD 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   LOWE

TXIO29 KNES 291525
TCSNIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91B)
B.  29/1430Z
C.  6.2N
D.  79.5E
E.  THREE/MET-8
F.  T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SSMIS
H.  REMARKS...1318Z SSMIS DATA WAS HELPFUL IN DERIVING THE POSITION AND
ALSO INFORMED THE BANDING MEASUREMENT. 5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF
2.5. MET OF 2.5 IS BASED ON 24 HR DEVELOPMENT TREND. PT IS ALSO 2.5. FT
IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    29/1318Z 6.0N 79.6E SSMIS

...TURK
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刚打酱油回来
超强台风
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8楼#
发布于:2017-11-30 04:31
编号03B

图片:WMBas209.png



图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


TCIN50 DEMS 291800
SATELLITE BULLETIN BASED ON INSAT PIC OF 291800 UTC (.)
REGION COVERED BETWEEN LAT 50.0?N TO 30.0?S AND LONG 40.0?E TO 125.0?E (.)
SALIENT FEATURES;-

VORTEX (COMORIN) :-
VORTEX OVER E COMORIN & N/HOOD CENTRED NEAR 6.3N/79.2E (.) INTENSITY T1.5 (.) ASSTD
BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD INT TO V INT CONVTN OVER AREA BET LAT 3.0N TO
8.0N LONG 74.0E TO 80.0E SW SRILANKA & COMORIN (.)
MINIMUM CTT MINUS 89 DEG C (.)

TPIO10 PGTW 291838
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91B (W OF SRI LANKA)
B. 29/1800Z
C. 6.42N
D. 78.92E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT YIELD 2.0. DBO DT. BROKE
CONTRAINTS OF +0.5 TNO OVER 6 HOURS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   BERMEA


上望90 KT,相当看好

图片:io0317.gif

[刚打酱油回来于2017-11-30 05:34编辑了帖子]
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刚打酱油回来
超强台风
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发布于:2017-11-30 08:26
IMD 2100UTC分析到T2.0,即将升深低压

TCIN50 DEMS 292100
SATELLITE BULLETIN BASED ON INSAT PIC OF 292100 UTC (.)
REGION COVERED BETWEEN LAT 50.0?N TO 30.0?S AND LONG 40.0?E TO 125.0?E (.)
SALIENT FEATURES;-

VORTEX (COMORIN) :-
VORTEX OVER E COMORIN & N/HOOD HAS INTENSIFIED NOW LIES CENTRED NEAR
6.5N/78.6E (.) INTENSITY T2.0 (.) ASSTD BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD INT TO V INT
CONVTN OVER AREA BET LAT 4.0N TO 8.5N LONG 75.0E TO 80.0E SW SRILANKA GULF OF
MANNAR & COMORIN (.) MINIMUM CTT MINUS 85 DEG C (.)
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