ty8615
世纪风王
世纪风王
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20楼#
发布于:2017-12-09 00:57
对流切离得厉害
命名看来没戏


但仍将在当地引发灾害
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刚打酱油回来
超强台风
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21楼#
发布于:2017-12-09 05:47
风场合格升04B

图片:WMBas208.png



WTIO31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080136ZDEC17//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z --- NEAR 18.3N 86.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 86.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 19.8N 87.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 21.2N 87.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 22.6N 88.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 86.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 04B. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 081514Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING AN
AREA OF 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF TC 04B.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES (10
TO 15 KNOTS) TO THE SOUTH OF TC 04B. HOWEVER, AS TC 04B TRACKS
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
VALUES (25 TO 30 KNOTS). POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS MODERATE AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW IS POOR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE (25 TO 26
DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 04B IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE STR WILL STEER TC
04B NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. AS A RESULT OF UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TC 04B WILL WEAKEN IN INTENSITY TO 35 KNOTS
BY TAU 24 BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. THIS
CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 080030 COR).//
NNNN


Sub: Deep Depression over westcentral Bay of Bengal weakened into a
Depression

The Deep Depression over westcentral Bay of Bengal moved further northnorthwestwards
with a speed of about 17 kmph during past 6 hours and weakened into a
depression and lay centred at 2330 hrs IST of today
, the 08th December, 2017 over
westcentral and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal near Latitude 18.0 ?N and Longitude 86.2
?E, about 190 km southeast of Gopalpur and 260 km south-southwest of Paradip. The
system is very likely to move northwards for some time and then north-northeastwards along
and off Odisha coast and weaken gradually into a well marked low during next 24 hours.
[刚打酱油回来于2017-12-09 06:13编辑了帖子]
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超强台风
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22楼#
发布于:2017-12-09 05:49

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


TCIN50 DEMS 082100
SATELLITE BULLETIN BASED ON INSAT PIC OF 082100 UTC (.)
REGION COVERED BETWEEN LAT 50.0?N TO 30.0?S AND LONG 40.0?E TO 125.0?E (.)
SALIENT FEATURES :-
VORTEX :-

VORTEX OVER C BAY & N/HOOD CENTRED NEAR 18.5N/86.1E (.) INTENSITY T1.5 (.) ASSTD BKN
LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD INT TO V INT CONVTN OVER BAY BET LAT 17.5N TO 22.5N
LONG 84.5 TO 90.0E & COTL ORS S GWB (.) MINIMUM CTT MINUS 77 DEG C (.)

TPIO10 PGTW 082134
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (E OF INDIA)
B. 08/2100Z
C. 19.27N
D. 86.49E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS A 1.0 AND PT YIELDS A 1.5. DBO
DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   08/1609Z  17.72N  86.77E  MMHS

   BERMEA

TXIO21 KNES 082132
TCSNIO
A.  04B (NONAME)
B.  08/2030Z
C.  18.5N
D.  85.9E
E.  THREE/MET-8
F.  T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULAR DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A
CENTER LOCATED UNDER A COLD OVERCAST MEASURING LESS THAN 1.5DEG. MET=2.5
PT=2.0 DT=1.5 FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGE TO 0.5 OVER 6HRS.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...FISHER
[刚打酱油回来于2017-12-09 07:27编辑了帖子]
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wwwawa
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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23楼#
发布于:2017-12-09 11:21
JTWC上望40kt

图片:io0417.gif


WTIO31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z --- NEAR 19.3N 86.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 86.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 20.8N 87.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 22.3N 88.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 87.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WHICH IS BEING SHEARED
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 04B. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 081514Z
METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING AN AREA OF 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF TC 04B. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS UNFAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES (20 TO 25 KNOTS). POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
MODERATE AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS POOR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE UNFAVORABLE (25 TO 26 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 04B IS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
THE STR WILL STEER TC 04B NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. AS A RESULT OF UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TC 04B
WILL WEAKEN IN INTENSITY TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BEFORE DISSIPATING
OVER LAND BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN
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wwwawa
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24楼#
发布于:2017-12-09 11:31
目前南亚副高和太平洋副高联成一体 南亚副高中心在越南附近 系统在登陆前会东北行 给系统的发展争取了时间

图片:QQ截图20171209112730.png

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ty8615
世纪风王
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25楼#
发布于:2017-12-09 21:55
JTWC 09UTC  FINAL WARNING

对流切向东北
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wwwawa
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26楼#
发布于:2017-12-10 10:41
仅剩底层 对流全切光了

图片:vis0-lalo.gif

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wwwawa
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27楼#
发布于:2017-12-10 10:46
挂了挂了

TPIO10 PGTW 100016

A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (E OF INDIA)

B. 10/0000Z

C. 20.32N

D. 88.04E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   09/1948Z  19.87N  87.70E  AMS2
   09/2111Z  19.98N  87.75E  SSMI


   BERMEA
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