颱風巨爵
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[IO]孟加拉湾深低压BOB 08(04B) - 南海扰动出囗后发展,登陆恒河三角洲西岸

楼主#
更多 发布于:2017-11-28 09:16
93W INVEST 171128 0000   4.2N  107.2E WPAC   15   NA

图片:20171128.0040.himawari-8.vis.93W.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.4.2N.107.2E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2017-12-10 21:04编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +5 威望 +5
  • tcfa_gw
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    11-28 09:18
  • tcfa_gw
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    11-28 09:18
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颱風若只如初見。
真宫寺小乔
荣誉会员-暖池
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1楼#
发布于:2017-11-28 10:14
近期南海冷涌系统挺活跃的。看来在北侧环流稳定情况下,南海东北季风进入赤道附近后激发对流系统的频率也会比较多。
真没用啊……二货道士……就这么死掉的话一点也不像你啊……你这个把一生都搭在我身上的人……为了我,你离开涂山……为了我,扬名立万……为了我,全力阻止人妖间的厮杀……就为了当年心中,容不下你的我…… 苦情巨树啊,你听见了吗,如果我也已经爱上了他,我愿意用我们相识的一点一滴的记忆以及我的全部妖力来起誓,让我们来世...再见吧!
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刚打酱油回来
超强台风
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2楼#
发布于:2017-11-30 08:30

图片:abiosair.jpg


ABIO10 PGTW 292200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN REISSUED/292200Z-301800ZNOV2017//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291951ZNOV2017//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290422ZNOV2017//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 291800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WAS LOCATED NEAR
6.6N 78.8E, APPROXIMATELY 904 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA,
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 292100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.4N 79.6E, IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
SEE PARA. 1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.8N 104.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 100.3E, APPROXIMATELY 388
NM NORTHWEST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. 93W IS BENEFITTING FROM WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN THE FUTURE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, PREDICTING DEVELOPMENT
ONCE 93W REACHES THE WARM WATERS OF THE ANDAMAN SEA ON ITS WESTWARD
TRACK ACROSS THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
DEVELOPMENT TO BE DELAYED SHOULD 93W TRACK OVER SUMATRA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.9S 102.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 103.4E, APPROXIMATELY 280
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 291144Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION CURVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 291408Z SCATSAT-1 OSCAT IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD
REGION OF 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. 96S
IS UNDER A REGION OF HIGH (25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH A
NARROW REGION OF LOWER SHEAR VALUES TO THE SOUTHEAST. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) IN THE REGION SOUTH OF
JAVA. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS AGREE THAT 96S WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING
AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH JAVA, INTERACTING WITH THE
REMNANTS OF 95S BEFORE A LATE TAU TURN TOWARDS AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS22 PGTW 290430) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11S 110.8E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
WARNING STATUS. AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TRANSFERRED FROM THE ABPW
BULLETIN AND UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN
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刚打酱油回来
超强台风
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3楼#
发布于:2017-12-01 02:18
终于开始分析

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


TPIO11 PGTW 301503
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (W OF MALAY PENINSULA)
B. 30/1430Z
C. 7.47N
D. 96.92E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   30/1136Z  7.30N  98.37E  SSMS

   LEMBKE
[刚打酱油回来于2017-12-01 02:21编辑了帖子]
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wwwawa
热带风暴
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4楼#
发布于:2017-12-01 22:01
结构乱七八糟 居然有30kt?

图片:2017WP93_4KMIRIMG_201712011320.gif



Track History



Synoptic TimeLatitudeLongitudeIntensity
2017120112005.797.830
2017120106005.498.430
2017120100006.896.825
2017113018006.897.425
2017113012006.698.725
2017113006006.29820
2017113000007.199.215
2017112918006.7100.315
2017112912006.3101.415
2017112906004.810415
2017112900004.2105.615
2017112818004.2105.915
2017112812004.2106.215
2017112806004.2106.715
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ray790601
热带低压
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5楼#
发布于:2017-12-03 11:49
脫離陸地後,感覺型態有所改散

图片:20171203.0310.himawari-8.ircolor.93W.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.6.2N.93.6E.100pc.jpg

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wwwawa
热带风暴
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6楼#
发布于:2017-12-03 17:19
强烈的反差。。。

图片:2017WP93_4KMIRIMG_201712030840.gif

图片:2017WP93_MIIWVRGB_201712030304.jpg


话说系统进孟湾好几天了,编号还是没有改,这系统到底多弱啊,IMD都不管
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933954
强热带风暴
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7楼#
发布于:2017-12-05 14:42
TPIO11 PGTW 050558
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (NW OF SUMATRA)
B. 05/0530Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
BE FOUND. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL FIX ISSUED BY JTWC ON THIS
AREA. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
REDEVELOPMENT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LEMBKE
不是知否要撤编了
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wwwawa
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8楼#
发布于:2017-12-05 18:05
对流似乎还变多了

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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iam最小值
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9楼#
发布于:2017-12-06 16:51
IMD升格低压

BULLETIN NO. : 01 (BOB 08/2017)

Depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal:
Latest observations and satellite imageries indicate that the well marked low pressure
area over southeast Bay of Bengal & neighbourhood concentrated into a Depression and
lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 06 December, 2017 near Latitude 8.5? N and
Longitude 88.5 ?E, about 1160 km to the southeast of Machillipatnam and 1250 km southsoutheast
of Gopalpur. The system is very likely to move northwestwards and reach Andhra
Pradesh coast around 8th December evening. The system is likely to intensify further into a
deep depression during next 48 hours. However, there is a probability of slight weakening of
the system when it reaches near Andhra Pradesh coast.

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

[iam最小值于2017-12-06 16:53编辑了帖子]
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