[SH(17-18)]马达加斯加东北90S - 10.9S 50.7E
楼主#更多 发布于：2017-12-09 03:17
90S INVEST 171208 1800 9.5S 65.8E SHEM 15 NA
DATE: 2017/12/09 AT 1200 UTC
An area of sharper rotation is located within the MT since a few days. This morning ASCAT swath
reveals a still elongated clockwise circulation with max winds of 10/15kt and an estimated central
pressure of 1008hPa. Dry air is still impeding convection which remains located in the outskirts of
By the middle of next week, the low should become better defined as the environmental conditions
remain favorable both in the lower and upper levels. Tuesday, the passage of a cold front South of
the Mascarenes archipelago is pushing the high Eastward which significantly decreases the
poleward convergence. In the upper levels, a deep trough is gradually building over the central part
of the basin. From Thursday, it drives the appearance of a moderate Southeasterly vertical
windshear over the system. This evolving environment could limit a potential deepening of the low.
In agreement with deterministic models, the last ensemble guidance tends to suggest a slightly
lower cylogenesis risk.
TPXS10 PGTW 122149
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (NE OF LA REUNION)
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE