颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[SH(17-18)]萨摩亚以南热带扰动03F(91P) - 17.8S 169.4W

楼主#
更多 发布于:2017-12-16 13:17
91P INVEST 171216 0600  14.2S  177.9E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20171216.0440.himawari8.x.vis2km.91PINVEST.15kts-NAmb-142S-1779E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2017-12-19 23:09编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +3 威望 +3
  • tcfa_gw
    威望 3
    原创帖
    2017-12-16 15:17
  • tcfa_gw
    金钱 3
    原创帖
    2017-12-16 15:17
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Society is dead, long live society!
是誰令青山也變,變了俗氣的嘴臉?又是誰令碧海也變,變作濁流滔天?
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
nicedavid12138
热带风暴
热带风暴
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1楼#
发布于:2017-12-16 15:57
fiji给了moderate
我喜欢做云图,更喜欢看云图
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刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
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2楼#
发布于:2017-12-17 01:26
FQPS01 NFFN 150600
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE EQUATOR to 25S between 160E and
120W
issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Dec 150800 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNINGNIL.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Dec 160600 UTC.

LOW L1 [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.0S 171.0E AT 150600 UTC SLOW
MOVING. POSITION POOR.


LOW L2 [1006HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.0S 178.5W AT 150600 UTC SLOW
MOVING. POSITION POOR.
人民的名义
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933954
台风
台风
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3楼#
发布于:2017-12-17 08:08
斐济编号02F
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.1S 178.0W AT
162100UTC. TD02F MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED
ON HIMAWARI-8 SATELLITE VIS AND IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC IN THE PAST 12 TO 24
HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW WIND SHEAR. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UPTO 850HPA. SST AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND INITIALLY MOVE IT
EASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE MOVING IT SOUTHEAST AND
WEAKENING IT AS IT MOVE INTO AREA OF HIGH SHEAR.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
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雷阵雨
水汽
水汽
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4楼#
发布于:2017-12-17 17:30
01F是哪个?讨论帖里没有
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meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
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5楼#
发布于:2017-12-17 18:08
Wikipedia上也是搞不懂01F在哪。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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6楼#
发布于:2017-12-18 12:16
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.5S 170.0W AT
172100UTC. TD02F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 SATELLITE VIS/IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.

CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LLCC.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
IN A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UPTO
850HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH NO INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
**********
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.4S 175.8W AT
172100UTC. TD02F MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. POSITION
POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 SATELLITE VIS/IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC IN THE PAST 12 TO 24
HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW WIND SHEAR. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT MOVES INTO
AN AREA OF HIGH SHEAR.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

图片:vis_lalo-animated1.gif





斐济今早新编03F,从定位来看更接近91P,表述上02F没什么机会发展,03F还有点机会。
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iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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7楼#
发布于:2017-12-19 14:55
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F [1005HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 18.1S 168.5W AT
182100UTC. TD02F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 SATELLITE VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.

CONVECTION HAS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LLCC. ORGANISATION POOR.
THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF A UPPER RIDGE IN A HIGH SHEARED HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UPTO 850HPA. SST
AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH NO INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS VERY LOW.THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE SUMMARY FOR TD02F UNLESS THE SYSTEM RE-INTENSIFIES.

*********************************************************************
**********
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.8S 171.4W AT
182100UTC. TD03F MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. POSITION
POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 SATELLITE VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

CONVECTION HAS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE LLCC EXPOSED.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS
UPTO 700HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH NO INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif





02F撤了
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