颱風巨爵
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[2017]西澳近岸二级热带气旋“希尔达”(06U/02S.Hilda) - 近岸命名,登澳首旋

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更多 发布于:2017-12-22 21:35
92S INVEST 171222 1200   7.4S  122.1E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20171222.1330.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.92SINVEST.15kts-NAmb-74S-1221E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2017-12-29 13:11编辑了帖子]
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颱風若只如初見。
meow
世纪风王
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发布于:2017-12-22 22:17
最近BoM持续关注的系统。

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:09 pm WST on Friday 22 December 2017
for the period until midnight WST Monday 25 December 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A trough lies near 7S (just north of the Indonesian Archipelago). A tropical low is starting to form in the trough near 7S 122E and is forecast to move southwest over the weekend and may strengthen next week.
There is also a chance another tropical low develops in the trough well north of the Northern Territory over the weekend and then moves southwest. If it does develop, then there is a chance it strengthens next week.
These two systems increase the risk of a tropical cyclone for northern Western Australia after Christmas Day.
A weak low lies near the northern border of the Western Region near 10S 112E. It is expected to move slowly to the east and dissipate over the weekend.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Very Low
Monday:Low
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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刚打酱油回来
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发布于:2017-12-24 00:54
Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC)

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Southern Indonesia area
Issued Sunday, December 24th 2017 09.00 Western Indonesia Time

Current Tropical Cyclone in the Southern Indonesia area:
None.

Tropical cyclone development possibility:
Suspect area with minimum pressure 1007 mb is observed in Timor Sea near 9 S 130 E, southeast of Kupang , and moving southwestward.

Possibility to develop into tropical cyclone:
Monday (tomorrow) : small possibility
Tuesday (tomorrow +1): small possibility
Wednesday (tomorrow +2) : small possibility

Note:
Small possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is less than 10%.
Medium possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is about 20%-40%.
Large possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is more than 50%.

Southern Indonesia area is area within equator to 11 S and 90 to 141 E.

ECMWF T+144应该就是这个吧?

图片:render-gorax-green-005-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-Jqrgv8.png

[刚打酱油回来于2017-12-24 10:25编辑了帖子]
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iam最小值
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发布于:2017-12-26 10:21
Details:
         Time (AWST)        Intensity Category        Latitude
(decimal deg.)        Longitude
(decimal deg.)        Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr        8 am December 26        tropical low        14.1S        122.5E        165
+6hr        2 pm December 26        tropical low        14.8S        122.3E        425
+12hr        8 pm December 26        tropical low        15.5S        122.1E        400
+18hr        2 am December 27        tropical low        16.0S        121.9E        275
+24hr        8 am December 27        tropical low        16.6S        121.8E        225
+36hr        8 pm December 27        tropical low        17.8S        121.3E        240
+48hr        8 am December 28        1        18.4S        120.8E        225
+60hr        8 pm December 28        2        19.4S        120.4E        210
+72hr        8 am December 29        1        20.5S        120.7E        350

图片:BOM 20171226 00UTC.png

图片:IDE00135.201712260030.jpg

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发布于:2017-12-26 10:30

图片:abiosair251700.jpg


ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/251800Z-261800ZDEC2017//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.5S 125.4E, APPROXIMATELY 830 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
251327Z 89GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A VERY WEAK AND BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
BUT DO NOT AGREE ON THE EXTENT OR TIMING OF CONSOLIDATION, WITH
NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND INTENSIFYING TO STORM STRENGTH
AT AROUND TAU 120. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:abiosair260200.jpg


ABIO10 PGTW 260200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN /REISSUED/260200Z-261800ZDEC2017//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.5S 125.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 124.5E, APPROXIMATELY
742 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 252227Z PARTIAL AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS 92S LOCATED IN AN AREA WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SUPPORTIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE 92S OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT 48HRS, BUT DO NOT AGREE ON THE INTENSIFICATION AND THE TIMING
THEREOF. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
[iam最小值于2017-12-26 12:14编辑了帖子]
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superstorm
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发布于:2017-12-26 18:34
这是高富帅提到的西澳强飓风吗?
以后去海南工作,那里才有大台风可以看
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刚打酱油回来
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发布于:2017-12-27 07:15
终于开始分析……

图片:20171226.2050.himawari8.ir.BD.92SINVEST.25kts-1002mb.jpg


TPXS10 PGTW 262116
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92S (SE OF JAVA)
B. 26/2050Z
C. 15.98S
D. 123.14E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0/D0.0/24HRS  STT: D1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT YIELDS 1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   LOWE


图片:20171226.1307.metop-b.ASCAT_IR.wind.92SINVEST.2100_040pc_25kts-1003mb_165S_1224E


图片:sh9218.gif


WTXS21 PGTW 262300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.5S 123.3E TO 19.8S 119.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S 123.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5S
122.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 123.2E, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 261135Z AMSU
89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CURVED, DEEP BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
WRAPPING INTO A LLCC IN THE SOUTWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A
261307Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN AREA OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS LOCATED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE 24-36 HRS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
272300Z.  
//
NNNN
[刚打酱油回来于2017-12-27 07:47编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2017-12-27 10:04
陆上编号06U

图片:IDW60280.png


IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0121 UTC 27/12/2017
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 17.0S
Longitude: 122.6E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [206 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds:    
Radius of Maximum Winds:    
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 70 nm [130 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  27/0600: 17.7S 122.1E:     035 [065]:  030  [055]:  990
+12:  27/1200: 18.2S 121.7E:     045 [085]:  035  [065]:  988
+18:  27/1800: 18.5S 121.6E:     050 [095]:  040  [075]:  986
+24:  28/0000: 19.0S 121.4E:     060 [110]:  040  [075]:  986
+36:  28/1200: 20.2S 121.7E:     080 [150]:  030  [055]:  990
+48:  29/0000: 21.6S 122.0E:     100 [185]:  030  [055]:  994
+60:  29/1200: 22.8S 122.3E:     120 [220]:  025  [045]:  998
+72:  30/0000: 23.7S 122.5E:     150 [280]:  025  [045]: 1002
+96:  31/0000: 24.8S 123.7E:     190 [350]:  025  [045]: 1006
+120: 01/0000: 26.0S 123.1E:     260 [480]:  025  [045]: 1006
REMARKS:
Low centre located using Broome radar. The system centre went over Lombadina
earlier this morning with a marked lull in winds followed by a change in wind
direction. Minimum pressure was around 986hPa. 135.8mm of rainfall was recorded
from 0900 Tuesday to 0809 Wednesday [AWST].

Model guidance is consistent in indicating a south southwest track, but with the
oblique angle of approach to the coastline a small deviation will make a
signficant difference to the amount of time spent over water. SSTs and shear are
favourable and the limiting factor is likely to be time over water.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/0730 UTC by Perth TCWC.
[刚打酱油回来于2017-12-27 10:05编辑了帖子]
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wwwawa
热带风暴
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发布于:2017-12-27 12:08
JTWC已经发出TCFA

TPXS10 PGTW 270317

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92S (SE OF JAVA)

B. 27/0250Z

C. 16.97S

D. 122.73E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   26/2144Z  16.88S  122.75E  SSMS
   26/2220Z  16.75S  122.97E  SSMS


   LOWE
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iam最小值
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发布于:2017-12-27 15:02

图片:2018SH92_1KMSRVIS_201712270630.GIF


图片:BOM 20171227 06UTC.png





结构还是不错的,入海后应该就能命名了
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