nicedavid12138
热带风暴
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[SH(17-18)]马达加斯加以东热带气旋第1号“阿瓦”(03S.Ava) - 西南印新风季首个命名风暴,近岸爆发,风眼清空,登陆马达加斯加 - MFR:85KT JTWC:95KT

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更多 发布于:2017-12-25 09:06
94S INVEST 171225 0000  10.0S   70.0E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20171225.0000.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.94SINVEST.15kts-NAmb-100S-700E.100pc.jpg

[9914dan于2018-01-10 15:55编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +1 威望 +1
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我喜欢做云图,更喜欢看云图
nicedavid12138
热带风暴
热带风暴
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1楼#
发布于:2017-12-25 16:05
定位的西北有个llcc

图片:iodc-hrv.jpg

我喜欢做云图,更喜欢看云图
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禾愛糖
超强台风
超强台风
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发布于:2017-12-27 13:59
EC/GFS支持94S發展並預計威脅馬達加斯加。

GFS認為撞馬達加斯加後出海環流會擴大許多
[禾愛糖于2017-12-27 14:00编辑了帖子]
Practice makes perfect.
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刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
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发布于:2017-12-28 07:05
开始分析

图片:2018SH94_4KMSRBDC_201712272115.jpg


TPXS11 PGTW 272151
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94S (SW OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 27/2115Z
C. 9.77S
D. 67.80E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   DREW
[刚打酱油回来于2017-12-28 07:07编辑了帖子]
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zjk369
强热带风暴
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发布于:2017-12-28 07:26
ABIO10 PGTW 272330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/272330Z-281800ZDEC2017//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271951ZDEC2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
………………
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
………………
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.9S
68.1E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271654Z 89GHZ AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
DISORGANIZED BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATED THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH STEADY CONSOLIDATION LIKELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ABIO10 PGTW 280330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/280330Z-281800ZDEC2017//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280151ZDEC2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
……………………
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 280000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (HILDA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.4S 121.7E, APPROXIMATELY 94 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF BROOME,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 280300) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.9S 68.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 67.8E, APPROXIMATELY 310
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271654Z 89GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED BUT PERSISTENT
CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STEADY CONSOLIDATION
LIKELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

图片:abiosair.jpg

[iam最小值于2017-12-28 12:57编辑了帖子]
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meow
世纪风王
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5楼#
发布于:2017-12-28 21:20
法国气象局预报2到5天之后,形成中等热带风暴机会大于50%。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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刚打酱油回来
超强台风
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发布于:2017-12-29 00:41
AWIO20 FMEE 281246
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2017/12/28 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The South-West Indian Ocean basin remains in a Monsoon Trough (MT) pattern west of 80E axed
between 09S and 11S. The associated convection is weak to moderate in the slowing area of the
monsoon flow, north of the Mozambique Channel and in the trade wind one east of 80E.
Meanwhile, it increased near the area of disturbed weather located within the MT, South-West of
Diego Garcia.

Area of Disturbed Weather to the South-West of Diego-Garcia:

During the past 24 hours, deep convection maintained near the circulation, thanks to good upper
conditions (especially an excellent upper divergence in the western semi-circle). Still, last
microwave data (SSMIS F18 0147Z and SSMI F15 1023Z) show a very elongated circulation,
which is thus preventing the system from deepening at short range. Last model analysis in
agreement with ground observations (ASCAT, buoys,..) suggest that maximal winds are ranging up
to 15 kt and 20kt far from the center, with a MSLP of 1006hPa. Last satellite imagery seem to
indicate, in this broad circulation, a center near 10S/68E at 1030Z. It is currently tracking southwestward
at 5kt.

For the following hours, internal structure not yet efficient, is expected to keep the system from
intensifying rapidly. Over the week-end, while moving south-westward, due to an increase of the
polar low level convergence and upper divergence and the disappearing of a weak easterly upper
constraint, the circulation is likely to get more symmetric and start a significant deepening. All
numerical guidance is in agreement with this scenario up to Sunday but begin to differ afterwards.
Among determinsitic, UKMO and IFS suggest a slower intensification than GFS. Consequently,
two track scenarios exist for next week, due to the two deepening rate and so to the two steering
flows, one more westward (Europeans) and the other more southward (American). Both EPS show
these two scenarios, and so none are preferred for now.

For the next 5 days, the potential of development of a moderate tropical storm over the basin
becomes moderate on Saturday and then high on Sunday.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical
storm over the basin and within the next five days:


Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30% High: 50% to 90%


The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african
coastlines to 90E.
[刚打酱油回来于2017-12-29 00:45编辑了帖子]
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meow
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7楼#
发布于:2017-12-29 01:30
GFS开始兴奋了
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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刚打酱油回来
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发布于:2017-12-29 22:35
编号报,预料过年后才升MTS
WTIO30 FMEE 291339

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/1/20172018
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER  1

2.A POSITION 2017/12/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.3 S / 67.5 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN    DECIMAL
FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/12/30 00 UTC: 11.9 S / 66.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
24H: 2017/12/30 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 64.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
36H: 2017/12/31 00 UTC: 13.3 S / 63.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
48H: 2017/12/31 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/01 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 60.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/01 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 58.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/02 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 55.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/03 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION KEEPS THE SAME STRUCTURE,
NEAR THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION DUE TO  FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS AS A EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS MORNING ASCAT
SWATHS SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE ELONGATED CIRCULATION COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY EVENING DATA, WITH STILL MAX WINDS OF ABOUT 15/20KT. THE
MICROWAVE IMAGES LIKE THOSE OF THE 1007Z SSMI F15 SWATH DEPICT A
STILL RUDIMENTARY STRUCTURE.

FOR THE NEXT HOURS, THE INNER STRUCTURE YET  NOT VERY EFFICIENT, IS
GOING TO IMPEDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
DURING THE WEEK-END THANKS TO THE BETTER LOW LEVEL POLAR ON SUNDAY AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH-WEST AND THE ARRIVAL OF NEW CELL OF HIGHS IN
THE SOUTH, AND A IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL POLAR DIVERGENCE, THE
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CIRCULAR, AND HELP THE
BEGINNING OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN A GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUGGEST A SLOW
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL SUNDAY, BUT THEY SHOW A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING ON
SUNDAY. AMONG DETERMINIST MODEL, UKMO AND IFS PROPOSE A SLOWER
INTENSIFICATION THAN GFS. FURTHERMORE, FROM MONDAY, TWO DIFFERENT
PHILOSOPHY EMMERGE FOR THE BINING OF THE WEEK CORRESPONDING TO TWO
DIFERRENT SCENARI OF ENVIRONNEMENT AND SO DIFFERENT STEERING FLOWS.
MORE WESTWARD FOR THE EUROPEAN ONES, AND MORE SOUTHWARD FOR GFS DUE
TO A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING IN THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM FOR
THE FIRST ONES, WHILE THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE SYSTEM TO BECOME
A MORE MERIDIEN IN GFS.
THE SEVERALS EPS TRANSPOSE THIS UNCERTAINTY, AND FOR THE MOMENT THERE
IS NO FAVORED SCENARIO.


THIS SYSTEM DO NOT JUSTIFY ISSUING OF REGULAR WARNING AT THIS STAGE.=


图片:trajectoire.png

图片:GX0G6TSCYBY.png

[颱風巨爵于2017-12-29 23:57编辑了帖子]
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meow
世纪风王
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发布于:2017-12-29 23:00
刚打酱油回来锛歐TIO30 FMEE 291339

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN ...
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
初报就上看60kt了,不过目前这阶段一天不会发满4报。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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