933954
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[WP]1801号热带气旋“布拉万”(01W.Bolaven)机构发报专贴

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更多 发布于:2018-01-01 20:51
熱帯低気圧
平成30年01月01日21時50分 発表

图片:a-00.png



<01日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 ミンダナオ島の東
中心位置 北緯 8度55分(8.9度)
東経 126度30分(126.5度)
進行方向、速さ 西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)


<02日09時の予報>
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 スル海
予報円の中心 北緯 8度55分(8.9度)
東経 122度50分(122.8度)
進行方向、速さ 西 35km/h(18kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)


<02日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 スル海
予報円の中心 北緯 9度05分(9.1度)
東経 118度30分(118.5度)
進行方向、速さ 西 40km/h(21kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
[颱風巨爵于2018-01-03 14:24编辑了帖子]
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  • 9914dan
    贡献值 3
    GW!
    01-01 21:22
  • 9914dan
    威望 3
    GW!
    01-01 21:22
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933954
强热带风暴
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1楼#
发布于:2018-01-01 21:13
JTWC/99W/TCFA/01-01 1330Z

图片:wp9918.gif


WTPN21 PGTW 011330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9N 127.8E TO 10.1N 118.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA AT 011300Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 126.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.6N 133.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 126.9E, APPROXIMATELY 480
NM EAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RESURGENT DEEP CONVECTION COVERING A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 011000Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES ORGANIZING BANDING AND DEEPER CONVECTION THAN PREVIOUS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT HAS
IMPROVED, SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN
AN AREA WITH SUPPORTIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THE SYSTEM TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE PHILIPPINES IN THE NEXT DAY, THEN DIVERGE IN TRACK AND INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. SOME MODELS PREDICT 99W CONTINUING WESTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA, WHILE OTHERS DEPICT A NORTHWARD TURN AT LATER TAUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021330Z.
//
NNNN
[933954于2018-01-01 21:50编辑了帖子]
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  • tcfa_gw
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    01-01 21:58
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meow
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2楼#
发布于:2018-01-02 03:00
JMA/TD-a/01-01 18Z

图片:a-00.png


熱帯低気圧
平成30年01月02日04時00分 発表

<02日03時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 フィリピン
中心位置 北緯 9度10分(9.2度)
東経 124度30分(124.5度)
進行方向、速さ 西 35km/h(18kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<02日15時の予報>
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 スル海
予報円の中心 北緯 9度05分(9.1度)
東経 120度25分(120.4度)
進行方向、速さ 西 35km/h(20kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)

<03日03時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 南シナ海
予報円の中心 北緯 9度20分(9.3度)
東経 116度50分(116.8度)
進行方向、速さ 西 35km/h(18kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
1条评分, 威望 +3
  • tcfa_gw
    威望 3
    优秀帖
    01-02 21:14
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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933954
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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3楼#
发布于:2018-01-02 08:19
CMA/TD01/01-01 21Z

图片:SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20180102050000000.jpg


ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 012100
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 01 INITIAL TIME 012100 UTC
00HR 9.4N 123.3E 1002HPA 15M/S
MOVE W 30KM/H
P+12HR 9.4N 119.4E 1002HPA 15M/S
P+24HR 9.9N 115.3E 998HPA 18M/S
P+36HR 10.5N 112.4E 995HPA 20M/S
P+48HR 10.9N 110.4E 990HPA 23M/S
P+60HR 11.2N 109.1E 995HPA 18M/S
P+72HR 11.3N 107.7E 1000HPA 15M/S=
NNNN
[933954于2018-01-02 08:22编辑了帖子]
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  • tcfa_gw
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    01-02 21:14
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933954
强热带风暴
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4楼#
发布于:2018-01-02 09:02
JTWC/01W/#01/01-01 18Z

图片:wp0118.gif



WTPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011321ZJAN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z --- NEAR 9.4N 124.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 124.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 9.7N 120.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 10.1N 116.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 10.6N 113.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 11.1N 111.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 12.3N 108.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 14.1N 106.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 9.5N 123.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND
022100Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 011330).//
NNNN
[933954于2018-01-02 09:04编辑了帖子]
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  • tcfa_gw
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    01-02 21:14
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933954
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发布于:2018-01-02 09:07
JTWC/01W/#01/01-01 18Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 011829Z
SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LLCC POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. A 011331Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE REVEALED 25-30 KNOT
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE BOHOL SEA, JUST NORTH OF MINDANAO, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY STRONG
EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. TD 01W IS TRACKING QUICKLY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE  
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 01W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING QUICKLY WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE
THROUGH TAU 36, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD SLOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS FORECAST AT TAU 24 AND
TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AFTER TAU 36,
TD 01W SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW AS IT TRACKS ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE
TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST (25-26C).
   C. AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM NEAR TAU 72, TD
01W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 THEN RAPIDLY
DIVERGES WITH GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE DEPICTING AN UNLIKELY RE-
CURVE NORTHWARD DIRECTLY INTO THE STR. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND IS POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS AT TAU 72 AND TAU 96. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INITIAL POSITION AND THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU
36.//
NNNN
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  • 9914dan
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    01-03 21:29
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933954
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发布于:2018-01-02 09:47
JTWC/01W/#02/01-02 00Z

图片:wp0118 (1).gif



WTPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z --- NEAR 9.4N 122.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 122.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 9.8N 118.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 10.2N 115.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 10.7N 112.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 11.3N 110.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 12.8N 107.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 9.5N 121.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z
AND 030300Z.//
NNNN
1条评分, 威望 +3
  • 9914dan
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    01-03 21:29
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meow
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发布于:2018-01-02 10:48
JTWC/01W/#2/01-02 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE
TO LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). A 012158Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH LIMITED CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WEST QUADRANT, JUST WEST OF THE LLCC.
OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS), BASED ON RECENT
ASCAT DATA. TD 01W IS TRACKING QUICKLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE
PHILIPPINES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 01W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING QUICKLY WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL STR ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 24, HOWEVER,
INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT WITH A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 40 KNOTS FORECAST AT TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. AFTER TAU 24, TD 01W SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
SLOW AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST (25-26C).
AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM NEAR TAU 60, TD 01W
WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 BUT RAPIDLY DIVERGES
WITH GFS, THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND NAVGEM DEPICTING AN UNLIKELY RE-CURVE
NORTHWARD DIRECTLY INTO THE STR. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AND IS POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AT TAU 48 AND TAU 72. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION
AND THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU 24.//
NNNN
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  • 9914dan
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    01-03 21:31
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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t02436
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发布于:2018-01-02 11:33
CMA/TD01/热带低压预报/01-02 06:00
台 风 公 报
预报:钱奇峰  签发:许映龙  2018 年 01 月 02 日 06 时
中央气象台2日06时发布热带低压预报:

热带低压于今天(2日)凌晨在菲律宾南部一带生成,今天早晨5点钟其中心位于我国南海永暑礁偏东方向约1130公里,就是北纬9.4度、东经123.3度,中心附近最大风力有7级(15米/秒),中心最低气压为1002百帕。

预计,该热带低压将以每小时30公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动,强度逐渐加强,将于今天夜间进入南海东南部海域,尔后发展为今年第1号台风,并逐渐向越南南部一带沿海靠近。

大风预报:2日08时到3日08时,南海大部有7-8级大风,其中南海南部的部分海域风力可达9级,阵风10-11级。

图片:SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_P9_20180101220002400_XML_1.png


图片:SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_P9_20180101220002400_XML_2.png

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t02436
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发布于:2018-01-02 11:34
CMA/TD01/01-02 00Z

图片:SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20180102080000000.jpg


ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 020000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 01 INITIAL TIME 020000 UTC
00HR 9.5N 122.3E 1002HPA 15M/S
MOVE W 30KM/H
P+12HR 9.3N 119.4E 1000HPA 18M/S
P+24HR 9.9N 115.1E 992HPA 23M/S
P+36HR 10.2N 112.5E 992HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 10.6N 110.5E 996HPA 20M/S
P+60HR 10.9N 109.3E 1002HPA 15M/S
P+72HR 11.0N 107.6E 1006HPA 12M/S=
NNNN
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  • 9914dan
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    01-03 21:32
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    01-03 21:32
  • 9914dan
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    01-03 21:32
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