[SH(17-18)]南印度洋热带气旋第2号“厄文”(08U/04S.Irving) - MFR:80KT JTWC:90KT
楼主#更多 发布于：2018-01-03 08:11
95S INVEST 180102 0000 5.0S 95.0E SHEM 15 NA
During the next days, a cyclogenesis may happen in the Australian Area of Responsibility (AoR).
With a west-south-westward track, the low may enter our AoR during the weekend, with a
significant intensity. For further information, please refer to bulletin IDW10800 (Tropical Cyclone
Outlook for the Western Regions) emitted by BOM.
For the next 5 days, the likelihood that a moderate tropical storm enters our AoR from east
becomes low on Saturday and moderate on Sunday.
A weak tropical low lies southwest of Sumatra, Indonesia near 9S 96E and just north of the region. It will develop over the next few days as it moves southwest, possibly into the far northwest parts of the region during Friday or Saturday. It is expected to move southwest out of the region by Sunday. There is a Low chance of the system being a tropical cyclone during it's time in the region on Saturday. It will not affect the WA mainland.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.8S
94.8E, APPROXIMATELY 232 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY COVERED BY FLARING
CONVECTION. A 040001Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED DEEP
CONVECTION PRIMARILY DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LLCC AND
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 040313Z PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS REVEALED TIGHT ELONGATED TROUGHING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION, WITH AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH, AND
AN ISOLATED PATCH OF 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM THE LLCC.
DUAL NASCENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE SUPPORTING STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND DEEP CONVECTION. 95W IS LOCATED ON A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES (5-10 KNOTS) AND HIGHER,
UNFAVORABLE VWS VALUES (20-30 KNOTS) TO THE WEST. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, FROM 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT BUT ARE SPLIT ON THE TIMING BETWEEN 24 HOURS
AND LATER THAN 72 HOURS. MODELS PREDICT 95S WILL MOVE IN A GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION IN THE INDIAN OCEAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
During the next days, a cyclogenesis may happen in the Australian Area of Responsibility (AoR). With a west-south-westward track, the low may enter our AoR during the weekend, with a significant intensity. For further information, please refer to bulletin IDW10800 (Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Regions) emitted by BOM.
For the next 5 days, the likelihood that a moderate tropical storm enters our AoR from east becomes moderate on Sunday, and high beyond.
Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC)
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Southern Indonesia area
Issued Thursday, 4th January 2018, Time 08.00 Western Indonesia Time
Current Tropical Cyclone in the Southern Indonesia area:
Tropical cyclone development possibility:
Suspect area with minimum pressure 1006 mb is observed in Indian Ocean Southwest of Lampung near 5.0 S 95.0 E.
Possibility to develop into tropical cyclone:
Friday (tomorrow) : small possibility
Saturday (tomorrow +1): medium possibility
Sunday (tomorrow +2) : medium possibility
Small possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is less than 10%.
Medium possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is about 20%-40%.
Large possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is more than 50%.
Southern Indonesia area is area within equator to 11 S and 90 to 141 E.
A tropical low lies near 9.5S 96.0E, about 300 km north northwest of the Cocos Islands. It is forecast to track southwest across the northwest corner of the region during Friday and Saturday. There is a Low risk of the system being a Tropical Cyclone in the region. It may bring a period of fresh to strong winds and an increase in thunderstorms to the Cocos Islands tonight and tomorrow, with conditions easing on Sunday. Gales are possible to the south of the system later Saturday. It will not affect the WA mainland.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
ABIO10 PGTW 050730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050152ZJAN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8S 94.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 93.9E, APPROXIMATELY 180
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL TURNING PARTIALLY COVERED BY
FLARING CONVECTION, AND A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 050252Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION
ONLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DISTURBANCE. A 050523Z PARTIAL
ASCAT METOP-A PASS INDICATES A THICK BAND OF 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
WEST OF THE LLCC, WITH ISOLATED 30 KNOT WINDS EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS
MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SUPPORTING DEEP
CONVECTION. 95S IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH SHEAR VALUES INCREASING RAPIDLY TO
THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
DISTURBANCE IN FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT, WITH GFS PREDICTING DEVELOPMENT IN ABOUT A
DAY, WHILE OTHER MODELS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING AT LATER
TAUS, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE INDIAN OCEAN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.) Longitude
(decimal deg.) Estimated Position
0hr 2 pm January 5 tropical low 11.1S 94.1E 85
+6hr 8 pm January 5 tropical low 11.8S 93.7E 105
+12hr 2 am January 6 tropical low 12.2S 92.8E 130
+18hr 8 am January 6 1 12.5S 91.6E 150
+24hr 2 pm January 6 1 12.9S 90.2E 175
+36hr 2 am January 7 1 13.5S 87.8E 210
+48hr 2 pm January 7 1 14.4S 85.3E 245
+60hr 2 am January 8 1 15.8S 82.7E 280
+72hr 2 pm January 8 2 17.7S 80.3E 320
图片：BOM 20180105 06UTC.png
At 0600 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 45 nautical miles of
latitude eleven decimal one south (11.1S)
longitude ninety four decimal one east (94.1E)
Recent movement : southwest at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots in the NW and SW quadrants
Central pressure: 1000 hPa
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours.