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论坛版主-副热带高压
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[SH(17-18)]西澳近岸一级热带气旋“乔伊斯”(09U/05S.Joyce) - 出海发展后南下,西澳半月两连击

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-01-07 15:19
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:02 pm WST on Sunday 7 January 2018
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 10 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough lies to the north of Western Australia, with a weak Tropical Low (09U) near 13.6S 128.6E at 2pm WST Sunday, off the northeast Kimberley coast.
The low is expected to move southwest across the north Kimberley coast on Monday, before moving over water off the northwest Kimberley coast on Tuesday. There is only a low chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone during Tuesday, but conditions are favourable for development and there is a high chance of it developing into a cyclone by later on Wednesday. There is a significant risk of this system affecting communities over the far western Kimberley and/or the Pilbara later in the week.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday:Very Low
Tuesday:Low
Wednesday:High

图片:IDY00030.201801070600.png

图片:aus_b03_0550.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-01-13 03:53编辑了帖子]
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iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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1楼#
发布于:2018-01-07 15:27
可见光云图左界110E,上界10S,每10度一格,可以参考天气图找位置。云图分辨率较低,看不清那块有什么东西,貌似有底层中心,中高层尚缺乏对流云,NRL编号可能还需一阵子。
数值报出下个星期影响西澳的系统。

图片:ecmwf_mslp_uv850_ind_5.png

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meow
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2楼#
发布于:2018-01-07 15:37
看不太出来
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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红豆棒冰冰
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3楼#
发布于:2018-01-07 23:54
NRL已编96P
96P INVEST 180107 1200 13.7S 129.2E SHEM 15 NA

图片:cb049822720e0cf3e4e6d3100146f21fbf09aa9a.jpg

图片:e84a8701a18b87d62f4536f40c0828381e30fda8.jpg

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-01-08 00:01编辑了帖子]
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欢迎加入百度百科地理组台风编辑小组,QQ群号码:692323623
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ray790601
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4楼#
发布于:2018-01-08 00:43
NRL 修正編號"96S"
20180107.1610.himawari-8.ir.96S.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.13.7S.129.2E.100pc.jpg

图片:20180107.1610.himawari-8.ir.96S.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.13.7S.129.2E.100pc.jpg


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Mitch
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5楼#
发布于:2018-01-08 13:16
用户被禁言,该主题自动屏蔽!
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iam最小值
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6楼#
发布于:2018-01-08 16:33

图片:BOM 20180108 06UTC.png


Details:
Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr2 pm January 8tropical low15.3S127.4E85
+6hr8 pm January 8tropical low15.3S126.8E105
+12hr2 am January 9tropical low15.4S126.1E130
+18hr8 am January 9tropical low15.5S125.4E150
+24hr2 pm January 9tropical low15.7S124.5E175
+36hr2 am January 10tropical low16.0S123.0E210
+48hr2 pm January 10116.3S121.8E245
+60hr2 am January 11116.9S121.0E280
+72hr2 pm January 11217.8S120.6E320
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wwwawa
强热带风暴
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7楼#
发布于:2018-01-08 18:10
JTWC:LOW

图片:abiosair.jpg


 (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.9S 127.8E, APPROXIMATELY 338 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND MODERATELY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH CONVECTION CENTRALIZED TO THE NORTHWEST. A 080441Z AMSR2 89GHZ
IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTION SLIGHTLY BANDING INTO THE LLC AND WEAK
INFLOW IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 96S WILL
REMAIN ON LAND THROUGH TAU 42. BEYOND TAU 42, 96S QUICKLY
CONSOLIDATES OVER WATER INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH SYSTEM
BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA NEAR TAU 90.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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wwwawa
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8楼#
发布于:2018-01-08 18:16
结构转好

图片:201801081000-00.png


图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

[wwwawa于2018-01-08 18:18编辑了帖子]
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zjk369
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9楼#
发布于:2018-01-09 09:54
JTWC 18Z評級提升Medium,BoM 強度上看澳式C3。
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.9S 127.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 127.2E, APPROXIMATELY
307 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 081337Z AMSU METOP-B 89GHZ PARTIAL
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODEL INDICATE THAT 96S WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. AT ABOUT TAU 42, 96S WILL MOVE OVER WATER
AND CONSOLIDATE, EVENTUALLY REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
[颱風巨爵于2018-01-09 13:18编辑了帖子]
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