颱風巨爵
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[SH(17-18)]罗德里格斯岛西北强热带气旋第3号“贝吉塔”(06S.Berguitta) - 一度爆发开眼,减弱登陆毛里求斯,掠过留尼汪近海 - MFR:90KT JTWC:100KT

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更多 发布于:2018-01-10 22:38
97S INVEST 180110 1200  10.8S   69.0E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20180110.1008.f15.85rgb.97S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.10.8S.69E.085pc.jpg

图片:cyclogenese.png

[颱風巨爵于2018-01-20 14:32编辑了帖子]
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Society is dead, long live society!
是誰令青山也變,變了俗氣的嘴臉?又是誰令碧海也變,變作濁流滔天?
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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1楼#
发布于:2018-01-11 00:32
Suspect Area, South-West of the Chagos Archipelago:

Last ASCAT swaths particularly last night ones, show the existence of a weak closed circulation
within the monsoon trough. Maximal winds reach 20kt in the equatorial feeding far from the center.
Deep convection is locally severe and a mid-tropospheric vortex can be seen on the latest imagery.
However, the system appears to be undergoing a moderate North-Easterly upper constraint. The
center is approximatively located at 10Z near 11S 68.5E and MSLP is around 1007hPa.

Over the following days, this circulation is expected to move under the upper ridge where it will be
protected from the vertical wind shear. The lower polar convergence is also forecast to increase with
the evacuation of EX-IRVING. Numerical guidance is so in a good agreement to suggest the start of
a new cyclogenesis. However it may be hindered by the presence of dry air mass and the arrival of a
new constraint by the end of the week-end

In the Mozambique Channel, European deterministic and ensemble model propose a chance of
cyclogenesis. But for now, this scenario is not preferred.

For the next 5 days, the risk that an other moderate tropical storm develop over the basin
becomes moderate from Sunday South-West of Diego Garcia and weak from Monday in the
Mozambique Channel.
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meow
世纪风王
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2楼#
发布于:2018-01-11 16:16

图片:abiosair.jpg


图片:WMBds199.png


THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S
70.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 69.1E, APPROXIMATELY 408 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP IN. A 101400Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD LLCC WITH SMALL POCKETS OF DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED OVER IT AND LIGHTER CONVECTION AROUND THE
PERIPHERY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-
31 CELSIUS), HOWEVER THIS IS OFFSET BY HIGH LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND INTENSIFY IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
[iam最小值于2018-01-12 00:28编辑了帖子]
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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meow
世纪风王
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3楼#
发布于:2018-01-11 23:32

图片:abiosair.jpg


AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.3S 69.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 68.6E, APPROXIMATELY
427 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND QUICKLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 111122Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVELS STRONG, FLARING CONVECTION BEING SHEARED
TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD
DIFFLUENCE BEING OFFSET BY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS)
WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD INTO AN AREA OF IMPROVING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-30 C) ARE ALSO
PRESENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH, BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
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4楼#
发布于:2018-01-11 23:34
TPXS10 PGTW 111504
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97S (SW OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 11/1430Z
C. 14.06S
D. 68.88E
E. SIX/MET8
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS 1.5 DT. MET 1.0. PT 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   DAVIS
人民的名义
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meow
世纪风王
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5楼#
发布于:2018-01-11 23:40

图片:cyclogenese.png


The monsoon flow is well established over the whole basin and mainly west of 60°E. After the evacuation from the tropical domain of AVA and IRVING, the thunderstorm activity is gathering again around an Area of Disturbed Weather monitored since yesterday to the south-west of Diego- Garcia. Elsewhere, the deep convection activity is locally strong north of the Mozambique Channel and along an active convergence line axed between 17S/50E - 22S/56E, located on the northern edge of a south-easterly winds surge.

Zone of disturbed weather, South-West of the Chagos Archipelago:

This low is gradually becoming better defined with an increase in the low level clockwise circulation as portrayed by the ascat pass of this morning. At 1045Z, the center is estimated near 13.8S and 69.1E about a little less than 890 km to the north-east of Rodrigues. The current motion is towards the south-south-west at 5-6 kt. MSLP is estimated at 1004 hPa with 20 kt winds. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development during the next couple of days (improving low level convergence and decreasing of the easterly constraint as soon as tomorrow). Over the next 2 days, the system is expected to track south-westwards and then gradually west- south-westwards as the subtropical ridge should build back south of the system.

On this track, it is now very likely that the a tropical storm will form during the week-end potentially near Rodrigues.
Sunday, the subtropical ridge strengthen again to the south-west of the system and may re-orient the track towards the north-west.

Inhabitants of Rodrigues island and more generally inhabitants of the Mascareignes islands should monitor the progress of this system during the week-end and next week.
In the Mozambique Channel, a very low potential for cyclogenesis still exist from Monday but still appear unclear at this time.

For the next 5 days, the risk that a moderate tropical storm develops near Rodrigues becomes high from Saturday. It is very low from Monday in the Mozambique Channel.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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永恒切尔西
热带低压-GW
热带低压-GW
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6楼#
发布于:2018-01-12 11:21
TPXS10 PGTW 120254

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97S (SW OF DIEGO GARCIA)

B. 12/0230Z

C. 14.90S

D. 69.08E

E. FIVE/MET8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/18HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS A 1.0 WHILE PT YIELDS A 1.5.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
11/2115Z 14.48S 69.20E ATMS
11/2302Z 14.78S 69.10E MMHS


LEMBKE
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meow
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7楼#
发布于:2018-01-12 11:50

图片:sh9718.gif


WTXS21 PGTW 120130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6S 69.5E TO 18.4S 64.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 120100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0S 69.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 68.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 69.1E, APPROXIMATELY 500
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION. AN 112059Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED LLCC WITH DISTINCT BANDING WRAPPING INTO
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD DIFFLUENCE, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-30 CELSIUS). AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER LOWER VALUES OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND QUICKLY
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130130Z.//
NNNN
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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meow
世纪风王
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发布于:2018-01-12 21:58
热带扰动第3号形成,初步上看80kt。

图片:SWI$03_20172018.png


WTIO30 FMEE 121228

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/3/20172018
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3

2.A POSITION 2018/01/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 67.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/13 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2018/01/13 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/14 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 63.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/14 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/15 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 62.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/01/15 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/16 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 60.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/17 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 59.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0-

OVER THE LAST DAYS, A SUSPECT AREA DEVELOPED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. IT CURRENTLY QUALIFIES FOR THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STAGE WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AND CIRCULATION CENTER, AS SEEN ON RECENT SAT IMAGES AND 0804Z AMSR2 MICRO-WAVE DATA. IN THE LAST HOURS, A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST OCCURRED OVER THE CENTER DESPITE A LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT ALOFT.

FIRST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON HEADING SOUTHWESTWARD. FROM SUNDAY, IT SHOULD BUMP INTO A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING UP IN THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, AND THEN TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE. TUESDAY, AS THE RIDGE SHIFTED EASTWARD, THE TRACK COULD TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AGAIN BUT THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS LATE FORECAST TIME. THE DISPERSION OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS MODERATE, GIVING A MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.

FROM TOMORROW, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE, ESPECIALLY ALOFT, WITH THE UPPER CONSTRAINT VANISHING AND A SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. DRY AIR COULD TEMPORARILY SLOW THE CYCLOGENESIS PROCESS DOWN. NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS REMAINS FAVORABLE TO A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, ALTHOUGH A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR COULD AFFECT THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

INHABITANTS OF THE RODRIGUES AND MASCARENES ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAYS.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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9914dan
论坛版主-副热带高压
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9楼#
发布于:2018-01-13 03:53

图片:2018SH97_4KMSRBDC_201801121215.jpg



图片:2018SH97_4KMSRBDC_201801121815.jpg



TPXS10 PGTW 121837

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97S (SW OF DIEGO GARCIA)

B. 12/1800Z

C. 16.84S

D. 67.03E

E. SIX/MET8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .4 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO CONSTRAINTS
DUE TO AN INCREASE OF 1.5 T-NO. OVER 6 HOURS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
12/1422Z 16.68S 67.47E SSMS


LOWE

图片:20180112.1830.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.06SSIX.30kts-1003mb-168S-676E.100pc.jpg


图片:06S.gif



升格06S,未来强度可期(原本几天前EC预测会于西侧的系统互旋合并成大散比,后来逐渐认为06S会占据完全优势),并且可能直袭留尼汪。
[颱風巨爵于2018-01-13 15:08编辑了帖子]
I wanna reset.
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