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[WP]新加坡以东90W - 2.7N 109.0E - 西太新年第一扰 - JMA:LPA

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更多 发布于:2018-01-12 00:31
90W INVEST 180111 1200   1.0N  107.5E WPAC   15   NA

北緯1度……

图片:20180111.1610.himawari-8.ir.90W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.1N.107.5E.100pc.jpg



西太新年第一擾,渦度泛白,估計由南下冷涌激發而成。

图片:wgmsvor.GIF

[9914dan于2018-01-16 15:53编辑了帖子]
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Boeing787Boeing... Luigi728Luigi7...
一上高樓萬里愁,蒹葭楊柳似汀洲。溪雲初起日沉閣,山雨欲來風滿樓。
meow
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1楼#
发布于:2018-01-12 00:48
GFS看好TS边缘
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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Elite
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2楼#
发布于:2018-01-12 00:51
GFS支持有45KT 风力
在西南象限的
[Elite于2018-01-12 00:53编辑了帖子]
影響香港熱帶氣旋路徑圖:http://www.hktctrack.net/ 將軍澳日出康城首都氣象站天氣情況:http://hktctrack.net/weatherstation/LOHASPark/ 新浪微博:http://weibo.com/zodiacvirgin/
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meow
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3楼#
发布于:2018-01-12 01:00
Elite锛欸FS支持有45KT 风力
在西南象限的
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
按照GFS近期表现还是当参考就够了,当年JMA对画眉也就给45kt。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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rifleman175
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4楼#
发布于:2018-01-12 01:38
首先发表一下感慨,新年伊始就遇上了久违的的婆罗涡旋编绕的扰动,可谓是开年大吉了~



这个扰动由自昨日起增强的东北季风激发的冷涌云团发展而来,目前受对流日际变化的影响处于增强期;所处环境风切较低,低层受跨赤道气流影响涡度泛红但成条形分布(主中心偏向马来半岛南部),高层辐散极佳。该扰动今夜明晨是关键期,如果对流能够巩固的话就有望进一步发展。

图片:20180111.1656.gpm.x.colorpct_89h_89v_1deg.90WINVEST.15kts-NAmb-10N-1075E.41pc.jp



图片:wgmsvor.GIF





图片:wgmssht.GIF





图片:wgmsdvg.GIF



我也查了马来西亚的雷达拼图,可惜扰动处于雷达盲区,所以看不到其全貌。


再补充一点新加坡实况:全岛目前为小到中雨,气温“低迷”,维持在22℃上下,体感阴冷。

图片:180112 Temp.jpg

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  • Luigi728
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    優秀帖
    01-12 08:29
【注:本人所引用的所有地图内的行政界线均应以中华人民共和国官方为准。】 茫茫人海中,追寻你的身影。 始于热烈,耗于相思,终于平淡,如此而已。
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meow
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5楼#
发布于:2018-01-12 01:53

图片:gfs_mslp_wind_90W_7.png


45kt的预报
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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zjk369
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发布于:2018-01-12 07:24
ABPW10 PGTW 112200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/112200Z-120600ZJAN2018//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 1.6N
108.6E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKLY DEFINED AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH 90W BECOME A CLOSED CIRCULATION QUICKLY AND HAVE
VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE WEST DUE TO A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT.
THE DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BUT POSSIBLY
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A LOW.//
NNNN
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Elite
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7楼#
发布于:2018-01-12 10:25
Medium了
影響香港熱帶氣旋路徑圖:http://www.hktctrack.net/ 將軍澳日出康城首都氣象站天氣情況:http://hktctrack.net/weatherstation/LOHASPark/ 新浪微博:http://weibo.com/zodiacvirgin/
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zjk369
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发布于:2018-01-12 10:53

图片:abiosair.jpg


12小時內 LOW--MEDIUM
[iam最小值于2018-01-12 11:56编辑了帖子]
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meow
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发布于:2018-01-12 11:51
zjk369锛12小時內 LOW--MEDIUM鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 1.6N 108.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 1.3N 107.5E, APPROXIMATELY 220
NM EAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SOMEWHAT
DEFINED BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. AN 112310Z SSMIS 91
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO A
BROAD LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE MIXED AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK BUT SHOW THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT IT WILL TRACK
TO THE WEST AND INTENSIFY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE EVENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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