9914dan
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[SH(17-18)]莫桑比克海峡热带低压第4号(99S) - 近岸快速发展,登陆莫桑比克,杀个回马枪重新出海,快速移入马达加斯加

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更多 发布于:2018-01-14 21:57
99S INVEST 180114 1200  14.2S   42.6E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20180114.1300.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.99SINVEST.15kts-NAmb-142S-426E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-01-26 07:09编辑了帖子]
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    01-14 22:34
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zjk369
强热带风暴
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发布于:2018-01-15 04:25

图片:042126wehjsjnyhjzfnsj7.jpg



ABIO10 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/141500Z-141800ZJAN2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141351ZJAN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
………………
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) IS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S
42.6E, APPROXIMATELY 383NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR.
ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, CONDUCIVE FOR POTENTIAL FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY TRACK A WEAK CIRCULATION WESTWARD INTO THE AFRICAN
CONTINENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
[iam最小值于2018-01-15 14:40编辑了帖子]
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meow
世纪风王
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2楼#
发布于:2018-01-15 14:58
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Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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meow
世纪风王
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发布于:2018-01-15 15:02
这是???
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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nicedavid12138
热带低压-GW
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发布于:2018-01-15 15:11
这是扰动

图片:扰动.jpg

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刚打酱油回来
超强台风
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发布于:2018-01-15 15:55
nicedavid12138锛氄馐侨哦鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
TPXS13 PGTW 150709
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99S (W OF MADAGASCAR)
B. 15/0600Z
C. 15.14S
D. 41.37E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T1.5/1.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AGREES. PT YIELDS A 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   15/0117Z  15.05S  41.77E  SSMS

   RICHARDSON
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永恒切尔西
热带低压
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发布于:2018-01-15 15:57

图片:SWI$04_20172018.png



** WTIO30 FMEE 150628 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/4/20172018
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  4

2.A POSITION 2018/01/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 41.6 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE    DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 0 NW: 0




7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2018/01/15 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 41.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/16 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/16 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, FILLING UP




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=1.5

MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT REVEAL A RAPIDLY BUILDING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
INITIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION.

WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (LOW SHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT), THE CURRENT RAPID TREND IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN UNTIL LANDFALL THAT SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT
OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IS LIKELY BY THAT
TIME.

THE GENERALLY WESTWARDS TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONNED OVER THE SOUTH-WESTERN CHANNEL.

UNHABITANTS OF THE EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SITUATION.=
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meow
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7楼#
发布于:2018-01-15 16:37
THE AREA OF CONVECTION  (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.2S 42.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 41.7E, APPROXIMATELY 400
NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY DEVELOP
99S AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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刚打酱油回来
超强台风
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8楼#
发布于:2018-01-15 20:11
ASCAT 150609

图片:WMBds175.png



ASCAT (METOP-B) 150705

图片:WMBds175.png

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nicedavid12138
热带低压-GW
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发布于:2018-01-15 20:55
99S INVEST 180115 1200  15.0S   40.9E SHEM   25  1002

描述:MSG1 12Z HRV

图片:扰动。jpg.jpg

MSG1 12Z HRV
[nicedavid12138于2018-01-15 21:04编辑了帖子]
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