9914dan
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[2017]棉兰老岛东南91W - 5.1N 131.7E

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-01-16 15:31
91W INVEST 180116 0600   3.9N  139.5E WPAC   15   NA

图片:20180116_0630_himawari-8_x_vis1km_91WINVEST_15kts-NAmb-39N-1395E_100pc.jpg

[9914dan于2018-01-18 19:05编辑了帖子]
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  • Luigi728
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    01-16 15:37
  • Luigi728
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    01-16 15:37
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wwwawa
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1楼#
发布于:2018-01-16 17:44
补图

图片:20180116_0850_himawari8_x_ir1km_bw_91WINVEST_15kts-NAmb-39N-1395E_100pc.jpg

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wwwawa
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2楼#
发布于:2018-01-16 17:50
风切较弱

图片:20180116_0600_mtsat-2_shear_wind_cimss_x.jpg

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红豆棒冰冰
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3楼#
发布于:2018-01-16 22:34
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.0N 137.7E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING WITH SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTION. A 160920Z SSMIS 91GHZ AND A 161025Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE BOTH DEPICT A LARGE AREA WITH MOSTLY SHALLOW CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CURVE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, HOWEVER, THEY ARE DIVIDED ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

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歆中思语
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4楼#
发布于:2018-01-16 23:48
未来进南海?不过两大数值不支持。。。。
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