颱風巨爵
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[SH(17-18)]西澳內陆热带低压11U(90P) - 季风系统,陆上加强

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更多 发布于:2018-01-20 00:39
90S INVEST 180119 1200  14.6S  136.0E SHEM   15   NA
90P INVEST 180119 1200  14.6S  136.0E SHEM   15  1010

图片:20180119.1630.himawari-8.ir.90S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.14.6S.136E.100pc.jpg



早前ASCAT掃出疑似近岸LLCC……

图片:WMBas259.png



是次MJO相位東傳至第五區,澳洲一帶季風槽轉趨活躍。

图片:ensplume_full.gif

[颱風巨爵于2018-01-30 22:01编辑了帖子]
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  • luhang
    威望 3
    90P
    01-20 07:35
  • luhang
    金钱 3
    90P
    01-20 07:35
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一上高樓萬里愁,蒹葭楊柳似汀洲。溪雲初起日沉閣,山雨欲來風滿樓。
Mitch
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1楼#
发布于:2018-01-20 12:46
数值认为有机会在珀斯责任区命名。
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iam最小值
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2楼#
发布于:2018-01-20 23:00
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Saturday 20 January 2018
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 23 January 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the  Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

The monsoon trough extends northwest to southeast across the Top End. A weak
Tropical Low, 1002 hPa, is located in the monsoon trough over the southwest Gulf
of Carpentaria. The Low is expected to remain slow moving over the next day or
two, before moving to the west early next week. If the Low remains over water
there is only a low chance of it developing into a Tropical Cyclone in the
southern Gulf of Carpentaria on Monday.
Although the movement of the Low is uncertain in the longer term, the risk of a
Tropical Cyclone developing remains low on Tuesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
                                   Sunday: Very Low.
                                   Monday: Low.
                                   Tuesday: Low.

图片:ir_lalo-animated.gif

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3楼#
发布于:2018-01-25 20:49
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Thursday 25 January 2018
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 28 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough lies near the Cocos Islands, just south of Christmas Island, across waters north of Western Australia and across the Top End of the Northern Territory. The presence of an active monsoon trough over the region increases the risk of a tropical cyclone in the region.
A tropical low lies in the monsoon trough over the Top End of the Northern Territory, about 280 km east of Kununurra. It is forecast to move slowly west or southwest over the next few days and should move into the Kimberley on Saturday or Sunday. It should remain over land for at least the next few days, and so it is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone. However, it is expected to develop into a deep monsoon low by Sunday, and as a result damaging winds and heavy rain will be possible over parts of the Kimberley. Gales and heavy surf conditions may develop along the north and northwest Kimberley coast on Sunday. Severe Weather Warnings will be issued for this system as required.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday:Very Low
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Low

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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iam最小值
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4楼#
发布于:2018-01-26 17:34
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Friday 26 January 2018
for the period until midnight WST Monday 29 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough extends from just north Cocos Islands to near Christmas Island, across waters north of Western Australia and across the Top End of the Northern Territory. The presence of an active monsoon trough over the region increases the risk of a tropical cyclone in the region.
A tropical low lies well inland over the west the Northern Territory, about 230 km east southeast of Kununurra. It is forecast to move slowly west or southwest over the next few days and should move into the Kimberley on Saturday. It should remain over land for at least the next few days, and so it is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone. However, it is expected to develop into a deep monsoon low by Sunday, and as a result damaging winds and heavy rain will be possible over parts of the Kimberley. Gales and heavy surf conditions may develop along the north and northwest Kimberley coast on Sunday. Severe Weather Warnings will be issued for this system as required.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Low
Monday:Low

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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iam最小值
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5楼#
发布于:2018-01-28 11:24
确定编号11U。已经不看好出海,会在内陆加强。

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 8:57 am WST on Sunday 28 January 2018
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 30 January 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

A tropical low (11U) was located about 110 km southeast of Fitzroy Crossing at
8am WST Sunday. The tropical low is forecast to track west southwest during
Sunday then take a more southerly track on Monday. It is expected to deepen
overland, and as a result damaging winds and heavy rain are forecast for parts
of the Kimberley. Please refer to the Severe Weather Warning and Flood Warnings
[http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/] for more information. The system is very
unlikely to move offshore and develop.
The monsoon trough remains active over western parts of the region near the
Cocos Islands and just south of Christmas Island. There is a chance a low could
form in the trough over the next couple days. However, if a low does form it
should remain weak and be unlikely to strengthen into a tropical cyclone.
There are no other significant systems in the region and none are expected to
develop within the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
                                   Sunday: Very Low
                                   Monday: Very Low
                                   Tuesday: Very Low

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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327
327
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6楼#
发布于:2018-01-29 10:00
JTWC:LOW
ABIO10 PGTW 290130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/290130Z-291800ZJAN2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281751ZJAN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
..................
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
19.5S 123.4E, APPROXIMATELY 112 NM SOUTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 282235Z AMSU 89GHZ
PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICT A WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 90P IS LOCATED IN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
RADIAL OUTFLOW. RECENT OBSERVATIONS VERIFY 25-30 KNOT WINDS IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 90P WILL REMAIN OVER LAND AND TRACK IN A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY.
HOWEVER THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN THE CASE IT
DEVIATES FROM THE MODEL GUIDANCE TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 990 MB. DUE TO THE INLAND POSITION OF THE
LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:abiosair.jpg


图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

[iam最小值于2018-01-29 12:54编辑了帖子]
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刚打酱油回来
超强台风
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7楼#
发布于:2018-01-31 20:11
TPXS12 PGTW 311154
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA)
B. 31/1130Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
BE FOUND. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL FIX ISSUED BY JTWC ON THIS
AREA. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
REDEVELOPMENT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   LEMBKE
人民的名义
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8楼#
发布于:2018-01-31 20:14
NRL撤编
90P INVEST 180131 0600 22.2S 122.9E SHEM 20 996
90P INVEST 180131 0000 21.7S 122.7E SHEM 20 996
90P INVEST 180130 1800 21.5S 122.9E SHEM 25 994
90P INVEST 180130 1200 21.1S 123.3E SHEM 30 992
90P INVEST 180130 0600 20.7S 123.7E SHEM 25 994
90P INVEST 180130 0000 19.9S 123.8E SHEM 25 993
90P INVEST 180129 1800 19.3S 123.9E SHEM 25 988
90P INVEST 180129 1200 18.8S 123.8E SHEM 25 991
90P INVEST 180129 0600 19.1S 123.5E SHEM 25 987
90P INVEST 180129 0000 19.5S 123.4E SHEM 25 990
90P INVEST 180128 1800 19.7S 123.7E SHEM 20 990
90P INVEST 180128 1200 19.8S 124.2E SHEM 20 992
90P INVEST 180128 0600 19.4S 125.0E SHEM 20 992
90P INVEST 180128 0000 19.4S 126.5E SHEM 20 996
90P INVEST 180127 1800 19.4S 127.9E SHEM 20 996
90P INVEST 180127 1200 18.7S 128.9E SHEM 20 994
90P INVEST 180127 0600 18.3S 129.5E SHEM 20 1007
90P INVEST 180127 0000 18.2S 130.0E SHEM 15 996
90P INVEST 180126 1800 17.9S 130.0E SHEM 15 996
90P INVEST 180126 1200 17.2S 130.0E SHEM 15 997
90P INVEST 180126 0600 17.0S 130.5E SHEM 15 1010
90P INVEST 180126 0000 17.0S 131.2E SHEM 15 997
90P INVEST 180125 1800 16.8S 131.6E SHEM 15 998
90P INVEST 180125 1200 16.5S 131.5E SHEM 15 1010
90P INVEST 180125 0600 15.9S 131.9E SHEM 15 999
90P INVEST 180125 0000 15.4S 132.3E SHEM 15 1010
90P INVEST 180124 1800 15.9S 132.7E SHEM 15 1010
90P INVEST 180124 1200 16.4S 132.7E SHEM 15 1010
90P INVEST 180124 0600 16.6S 133.2E SHEM 15 1010
90P INVEST 180124 0000 16.6S 133.6E SHEM 15 1000
90P INVEST 180123 1800 16.6S 134.2E SHEM 15 1000
90P INVEST 180123 1200 16.4S 134.5E SHEM 15 1000
90P INVEST 180123 0600 16.0S 134.5E SHEM 15 997

图片:20180131.0930.himawari-8.x.vis1km.90PINVEST.20kts-996mb-222S-1229E.100pc.jpg

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