颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[2017]迪戈加西亚东南强热带气旋第5号“西比尔”(07S.Cebile) - 环流小巧爆发惊人,24小时增强65节;强度起落三度巅峰,在南印度洋中游弋 - MFR:100KT JTWC:120KT

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更多 发布于:2018-01-24 03:50
MFR路径图

图片:SWI$05_20172018.png



二巅云图 (JTWC 00Z:120KT)



NRL编扰资讯

91S INVEST 180123 1800  11.5S   78.0E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20180123.1900.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.91SINVEST.15kts-NAmb-115S-780E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-02-09 05:37编辑了帖子]
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颱風若只如初見。
红豆棒冰冰
热带低压
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1楼#
发布于:2018-01-25 15:36
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.2S 79.8E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVER THE CENTER. A 250124Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING
TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. A 250334Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS THE
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 10-15 KNOT
WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER BUT STRONGER (20-25 KNOT) WESTERLIES
TO THE NORTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT, DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25
KNOTS), HOWEVER, IT HAS GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT
ARE SPLIT ON WHEN INTENSIFICATION TO WARNING STRENGTH WILL OCCUR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

图片:6d2cdab44aed2e73f21b81ef8c01a18b85d6fadd.jpg


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meow
世纪风王
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2楼#
发布于:2018-01-25 18:31
模式非常看好
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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meow
世纪风王
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发布于:2018-01-25 21:06
Suspect area in the eastern part of the MT :
A clockwise circulation is already located within the MT, but remains rather elongated with a center located near 09.7S/80.6E at 10Z. This morning ASCAT swath showed max winds of 10/15kt, reaching 20kt within the monsoon feeding. The estimated MSLP is 1003hPa, in agreement with the surrounding observation data. Currently, the Easterly shear is analysed at 25kt by CIMSS. Microwave imagery (GMI 0236Z and SSMIS 0124Z) show that most of convection is located in the western semi cirlce, confirming the existence of the upper constraint.

Tomorrow and during the week-end, while moving east-southeastward, this upper environment should improve, with the weakening of the windshear and the persistence of a good divergence, under an upper ridge. Thus, with a conducive equatorial and polarward lower convergence, model guidance (determinsitic and ensemble) suggest a significant cyclogenesis risk this weekend.

The risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm becomes moderate on Saturday, within the Eastern region of our basin, and high from Sunday.

图片:cyclogenese.png

[颱風巨爵于2018-01-26 01:38编辑了帖子]
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
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4楼#
发布于:2018-01-26 01:02

图片:20180125.1200.himawari-8.x.vis1km.91SINVEST.30kts-1000mb-97S-805E.100pc.jpg


TPXS10 PGTW 251245
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (ESE OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 25/1200Z
C. 9.86S
D. 80.64E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   DAVIS

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


TPXS10 PGTW 251512
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (ESE OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 25/1445Z
C. 9.78S
D. 80.79E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS 1.0 DT. MET/PT 1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   DAVIS
[刚打酱油回来于2018-01-26 01:06编辑了帖子]
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933954
强热带风暴
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5楼#
发布于:2018-01-26 09:24
TCFA
sh9118.kmz26-Jan-2018 01:16312916file



WTXS21 PGTW 260130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9S 81.5E TO 12.5S 86.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.8S 82.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S
80.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 82.1E, APPROXIMATELY 585NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
252250Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION ABOVE A COHESIVE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 91S
IS CURRENTLY UNDER HIGH (25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT VALUES
DROP OFF RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH, WHERE THE SYSTEM IS HEADING.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS STRONG AND BEGINNING TO FORM A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS PREDICT 91S REACHING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STORM
TRAVELS TO THE SOUTHEAST. IF NOT, DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
THE LATER TAUS AFTER 91S ROUNDS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270130Z.//
NNNN


图片:sh9118.gif

[933954于2018-01-26 09:55编辑了帖子]
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追风的小孩
热带风暴
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6楼#
发布于:2018-01-26 10:36
TXXS27 KNES 260144
TCSSIO
CCA

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91S)

B.  25/2330Z

C.  10.6S

D.  82.6E

E.  THREE/MET-8

F.  T1.0/1.5/D1.0/24RS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR POSITION AND CLASSIFICATION METHOD. SHEAR
PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES WITH
THE LLCC GREATER THAN 75 NM FROM A SMALL COLD OVERCAST FOR A
DT=1.0. MET=1.5. PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...LEE
广西壮族自治区贵港市港北区人民,另外我是一个小学生
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追风的小孩
热带风暴
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7楼#
发布于:2018-01-26 19:47
TXXS27 KNES 260603
TCSSIO

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91S)

B.  26/0530Z

C.  10.6S

D.  82.6E

E.  THREE/MET-8

F.  T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...SHEARED PATTERN WITH CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND
A CENTER GREATER THAN 75 NM FROM A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION YIELDS
A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL



...KLM
[追风的小孩于2018-01-26 19:55编辑了帖子]
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meow
世纪风王
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8楼#
发布于:2018-01-26 21:24
已经在ITCZ报文编热带扰动5号,但还没有单独报文。

The basin is in a Monsoon Trough (MT) pattern along 11S. Deep convective activity is weak to moderate, with the exception of the area around 10.2S / 82.5E.

Tropical disturbance 05/20172018 in the eastern part of the MT :
An elongated clockwise circulation can be located at 10.2S / 82.5E within the MT. This circulation is contracting and the 0357UTC ASCAT swath allows to have a partial estimate of this circulation. It present for this moment, winds of the order of 20kt, reaching 25kt within the monsoon feeding. The MSLP in the center is analyzed by the majority of the deterministic numerical models at around 1000hPa, but no surrounding observation data can validate this value. The easterly shear is analyzed at 25kt by the CIMSS, which is confirmed by the location in the western semi circle of the deep convection. With a track to the east-southeast, the tropical disturbance 05/20172018 should benefit from more favorable atmospherics conditions with the disappearance of the shear and the persistence of a good upper-level divergence. The model guidance suggest a significant cyclogenesis risk Sunday about this tropical disturbance.

The risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm becomes high on Saturday, within the Eastern region of our basin, and very high on Sunday.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
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9楼#
发布于:2018-01-27 03:09

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


TPXS10 PGTW 261836
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (ESE OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 26/1800Z
C. 10.11S
D. 84.25E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   26/1310Z  10.30S  82.97E  SSMS

   RICHARDSON

TXXS27 KNES 261812
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91S)
B.  26/1730Z
C.  9.9S
D.  84.8E
E.  THREE/MET-8
F.  T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...SHEARED SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES AND A CENTER LOCATED UNDER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SMALL COLD
OVERCAST. DT=2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...VELASCO
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