颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-08-03
  • 最后登录2018-07-22
  • 粉丝54
  • 关注1
  • 发帖数412
  • 来自
阅读:2470回复:27

[SH(17-18)]珊瑚海一级热带气旋“费希”(06F/08P.Fehi) - 南太首旋,南下掠过新喀里多尼亚,转温后增强趋向新西兰

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-01-26 16:31
93P INVEST 180126 0600  11.2S  155.7E SHEM   15  1010

图片:20180126.0800.himawari-8.ir.93P.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.11.2S.155.7E.100pc.jpg



图片:latestSWP.png



图片:wgmsvor-1.GIF

[颱風巨爵于2018-02-01 12:51编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +3 威望 +3
喜欢0 评分2
一上高樓萬里愁,蒹葭楊柳似汀洲。溪雲初起日沉閣,山雨欲來風滿樓。
iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-07-16
  • 最后登录2018-07-22
  • 粉丝235
  • 关注25
  • 发帖数12953
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2018-01-26 17:30
92P、93P离得很近,最后应该是一个系统,看NRL保留哪个编号

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
  • 注册日期2011-09-08
  • 最后登录2018-07-22
  • 粉丝429
  • 关注38
  • 发帖数17476
  • 来自
2楼#
发布于:2018-01-26 21:49

图片:abpwsair.jpg


AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.9S 156.3E, APPROXIMATELY 780 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA,
VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION
WRAPPING IN. A 261127Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED, BUT SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC WITH BANDING AND CONVECTION
PRESENT. A 261043Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH PRIMARILY
15-20 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER AND A WESTERLY WIND SURGE TO
THE NORTH CREATING A REGION OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(20-25 KNOTS), BUT HAS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND INTENSIFY INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
  • 注册日期2012-11-16
  • 最后登录2018-07-21
  • 粉丝194
  • 关注6
  • 发帖数6313
  • 来自
3楼#
发布于:2018-01-27 06:53
TCFA

图片:sh9318.gif


WTPS21 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7S 156.4E TO 18.8S 160.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 156.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 156.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 156.8E, APPROXIMATELY
755NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 261952 F-17 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 93P IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH BOTH EQUATOR AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN 93P OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AND TRACK IN A SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 272100Z.
//
NNNN

初报T1.5
TPPS10 PGTW 262139
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93P (S OF SOLOMAN ISLANDS)
B. 26/2100Z
C. 11.76S
D. 156.73E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   RICHARDSON


Ocean Wind Warning 1
IDY21000
40:2:1:04:33S135E33035:11:00
SECURITE
High Seas Weather Warning for METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC
At 1812UTC 26 January 2018

GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN AREA

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION AT 1800UTC
Vigorous clockwise flow around a low 995hPa. Forecast near 12S156.5E at
261800UTC, low 995hPa near 13S157.5E at 270000UTC, low 992hPa near 14.5S158E at
270600UTC, low 992hPa near 15.5S159E at 271200UTC and low 989hPa near 15.5S159E.

AREA AFFECTED
Bounded by 18S158E 17S162E 14S162E 12S161E 10S157E 10S154E 12S153E 13S157E
15S159E 16S157E 18S158E.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 30/40 knots within 090nm of low in the northern quadrant,
extending to within 150nm of low in the northwest quadrant by 270000UTC. By
271200UTC: Northwest quarter winds 30/40 knots turning clockwise and increasing
to 35/45 knots within 180nm of low in the sector from north through east to
southwest. Rough to very rough seas. Low to moderate swell.
[刚打酱油回来于2018-01-27 07:00编辑了帖子]
人民的名义
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
约瑟但以理
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
  • 注册日期2016-02-23
  • 最后登录2018-07-22
  • 粉丝49
  • 关注108
  • 发帖数775
  • 来自
4楼#
发布于:2018-01-27 14:23
斐济05F
家住宝山吴淞
回复(1) 喜欢(0)     评分
刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
  • 注册日期2012-11-16
  • 最后登录2018-07-21
  • 粉丝194
  • 关注6
  • 发帖数6313
  • 来自
5楼#
发布于:2018-01-28 00:12
约瑟但以理锛氺臣05F鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
FMS只称作LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,没有认定是05F或06F


WWPS21 NFFN 262100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 262344 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD05F CENTRE {[996HPA]} WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.4S
161.2E AT 262300UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO EAST.
ORGANISATIONS REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.
SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN A IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
**************
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ANALYSE NEAR 11.1S 156.2E AT 262300UTC SLOW
MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON THE HIMAWARI VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS.

THE SYSTEM LIES EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN A LOW SHARED ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UPTO
500HPA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF HIGH SHEAR IN
THE COMING DAYS.

THE LOW IS FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO NADI AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
TOMORROW.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.


*********************************************************************
***************NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR
FORECASTED IN THE AREA.
人民的名义
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
  • 注册日期2012-11-16
  • 最后登录2018-07-21
  • 粉丝194
  • 关注6
  • 发帖数6313
  • 来自
6楼#
发布于:2018-01-28 03:44

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


TPPS10 PGTW 271851
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93P (S OF SOLOMAN ISLANDS)
B. 27/1800Z
C. 15.52S
D. 159.33E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO . CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING
A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   RICHARDSON

TXPS27 KNES 271841
TCSWSP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93P)
B.  27/1730Z
C.  15.9S
D.  160.3E
E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...VERY LARGE CDO WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UNCERTAIN
IF CLOSED LLCC EXISTS, CENTER BASED ON CSC. DT OF 1.0 IS BASED ON GT
0.2 BROAD BANDING. MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...RAMIREZ
人民的名义
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
  • 注册日期2012-11-16
  • 最后登录2018-07-21
  • 粉丝194
  • 关注6
  • 发帖数6313
  • 来自
7楼#
发布于:2018-01-28 04:00
新喀里多尼亚报文却一直认定为SH922018

WWNC02 NWBB 270213
A. SPECIAL MARINE WEATHER ADVISORY NUMBER 1

B. GALE WARNING ISSUED THE 2018/01/27 AT 02:12 UTC
C. SYNOPTIC CONTEXT THE 2018/01/27 AT 00:00 UTC:THE 2018/01/27 AT
00:00 UTC, TROPICAL LOW SH92:
-LOCATED BY 12.0 SOUTH 157.9 EAST. POSITION GOOD.
-CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 996 HPA.
-MOVING EAST 8 KT.
-EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT (GUSTS 40 KT) WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTER.
OUEST ZONE NORD JUSQU'AU 28 A 00 UTC AU MOINS:
DEPRESSION TROPICALE FAIBLE SH92 SE CREUSANT, PREVUE DEVENIR
DEPRESSION TROPICALE MODEREE EN FIN DE NUIT PROCHAINE AVEC VENTS
DEPRESSIONNAIRES SE RENFORCANT 35 KT, FORTES RAFALES 50 KT AUTOUR DU
CENTRE.
D. WESTERN NORTH AREA UNTIL 2018/01/28 AT LEAST:
TROPICAL LOW SH92 DEEPENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME TROPICAL CYCLONE
CATEGORY 1 BY 2018/01/27 18 UTC WITH FRESHENING CYCLONIC WINDS 35 KT
AND SEVERE GUSTS 50 KT AROUND THE CENTER
E.
2018/01/27 AT 06:00 UTC: 12.4 S 158.5 E.
2018/01/27 AT 12:00 UTC: 13.0 S 159.0 E.
2018/01/27 AT 18:00 UTC: 13.8 S 159.4 E.
2018/01/28 AT 00:00 UTC: 14.7 S 159.7 E.
NEXT SPECIAL MARINE WEATHER ADVISORY THE 2018/01/27 AT 08:00 UTC.=
人民的名义
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
  • 注册日期2012-11-16
  • 最后登录2018-07-21
  • 粉丝194
  • 关注6
  • 发帖数6313
  • 来自
8楼#
发布于:2018-01-28 08:58
编号06F
WWPS21 NFFN 280000 CCB
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 280025 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F CENTRE {[994HPA]} WAS RE-ANALYSED NEAR
16.0S 160.0E AT 272300UTC MOVING SOUTH - SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI 8 VIS IMAGERY AND RECENT ASCAT PASS.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP
CONVERCTION MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS.  CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA.
OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND EAST OF
AN UPPER TROUGH IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

*********************************************************************
****
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED IN THE AREA.

图片:WMBds271.png




Ocean Wind Warning 1
IDY21000
40:2:1:04:33S135E33035:11:00
SECURITE
High Seas Weather Warning for METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC
At 0026UTC 28 January 2018

GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN AREA

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION AT 0000UTC
Vigorous clockwise flow around a low 990hPa near 15.5S158.5E, forecast low
987hPa near 16.5S159.5E at 280600UTC, low 988hPa near 17S160E at 281200UTC, low
984hPa near 17.5S160.5E at 281800UTC, and low 984hPa near 18.5S161E at
290000UTC.

AREA AFFECTED
Bounded by 21S160E 11S160E 12S157E 16S159E 17S158E 21S160E.

FORECAST
Northwest quarter winds 30/40 knots turning clockwise 30/40 knots within 180nm
of low in all quadrants except western quadrant. Clockwise winds increasing to
35/45 knots within 120nm of low in the sector from north through east to
southwest. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell.


图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif


TPPS10 PGTW 280008
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93P (S OF SOLOMAN ISLANDS)
B. 27/2330Z
C. 16.65S
D. 160.62E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO . CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING
A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   RICHARDSON

TXPS27 KNES 280039
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93P)
B.  27/2330Z
C.  16.3S
D.  159.9E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WITH A CENTER NEAR A SMALL COLD OVERCAST RESULTING IN DT=1.5 USING SHEAR
PATTERN. MET=1.0, PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...BOLL
[刚打酱油回来于2018-01-28 10:34编辑了帖子]
人民的名义
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
梦幻粉影
热带低压
热带低压
  • 注册日期2016-01-31
  • 最后登录2018-07-22
  • 粉丝8
  • 关注2
  • 发帖数91
  • 来自
9楼#
发布于:2018-01-28 09:46
已升格SH08,位置尴尬,卡在了BOM和FMS界上

图片:sh0818.gif



REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 160.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 486 NM
WEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP FLARING CONVECTION ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). A CONCENTRATION OF
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WITH A 272311Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING 35 TO
40 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 35 KNOTS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT PASS. THIS IS CORROBORATED BY THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T2.5 FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE PRESENCE
OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS)
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE SPCZ, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY RAPID
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES POLEWARD AND TAPS INTO MID-
LATITUDE DYNAMICS. TC 08P WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 72, WITH INCREASE
BAROCLINICITY AND STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, TC 08P IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION AND COMPLETELY
LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY TAU 96 IN THE VICINITY
OF NEW ZEALAND. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SO THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2018-01-28 10:49编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
上一页
游客

返回顶部