9914dan
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[2017]TCFA - 巴斯群岛海域94P - 32.7S 139.8W

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更多 发布于:2018-01-28 00:25
94P INVEST 180127 1200  27.5S  144.0W SHEM   15   NA
94P INVEST 180127 1800  28.3S  143.5W SHEM   30  1000

图片:20180127.1622.goes-15.vis.1km.94P.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.27.5S.144W.100pc.jpg


图片:WMBas32.png



图片:15.track.png



图片:wg10svor.gif


[颱風巨爵于2018-01-29 17:56编辑了帖子]
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热带低压
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1楼#
发布于:2018-01-28 00:36
风场一度大片30kts 不过性质存疑
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2楼#
发布于:2018-01-28 00:38
SH, 94, 2018012712, , BEST, 0, 280S, 1438E, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
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meow
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3楼#
发布于:2018-01-28 00:56
在法属玻利尼西亚的南方群岛海域。新西兰预报低压槽发展成温带气旋。

Forecast valid to 1:00am Monday 29 Jan 2018: Poor visibility in showers at times within 180 nautical miles east of trough 25S 145W 35S 142W 42S 131W moving southeast 10kt.

Low expected near 31s 140W by 280000UTC moving southeast. Clockwise 20 to 30kt about low.
[meow于2018-01-28 02:17编辑了帖子]
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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meow
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4楼#
发布于:2018-01-28 01:58
关于南太平洋25S以南命名权的解释:

If a tropical depression becomes a tropical cyclone in the Wellington TCWC area of responsibility, Wellington TCWC in consultation with RSMC Nadi, will name the cyclone by using the next name from RSMC Nadi’s list.

若在该区域形成热带气旋,新西兰会和斐济协商,并拿斐济的命名表来命名。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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5楼#
发布于:2018-01-28 02:42
猝不及防

图片:sh9418.gif


WTPS22 PGTW 271830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.6S 144.4W TO 35.0S 141.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271753Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 27.5S 144.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 720NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAPE?ETE,
TAHITI. A 271541Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A REGION OF DEEP SYMMETRIC
FLARING CONVECTION JUST SOUTHEAST OF RAPA ISLAND. A RECENT 270657Z
ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE INDICATES A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH NUMEROUS 25-
30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC).  UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94P IS LOCATED NEAR
MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION, WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELSIUS)
COMBINED WITH MARGINAL VWS VALUES WILL SUPPORT SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE ENTERING A
MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
281830Z.
//
NNNN
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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6楼#
发布于:2018-01-28 03:01
MetService评25kt 1003hPa

Poor visibility in rain within 120 nautical miles of low 1003hPa near 28S 143W moving southsoutheast 15kt and within 120 nautical miles east of second front 30S 142W 37S 139W 43S 128W moving southeast 10kt.Within 180 nautical miles of low in eastern semicircle:Clockwise 25kt at times.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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meow
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7楼#
发布于:2018-01-28 03:07

图片:20180127.1800.goes-15.vis.1km.94P.INVEST.30kts.1000mb.28.3S.143.5W.100pc.jpg


TPPS11 PGTW 271807

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (SE OF AHUREI ISLAND)

B. 27/1753Z

C. 28.57S

D. 143.55W

E. FIVE/GOES15

F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO . CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING
A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   27/1541Z  28.05S  143.77W  SSMS


   RICHARDSON
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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刚打酱油回来
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8楼#
发布于:2018-01-28 03:47
meow锛歍PPS11 PGTW 271807

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (SE OF AHUREI ISLAND)

B. 27/1753Z

C. 28.57S

D. 143.55W

E....
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif


TXPS28 KNES 271856
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94P)
B.  27/1722Z
C.  28.3S
D.  143.3W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/WINDSAT
H.  REMARKS...CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE N OF THE CONVECTION. DT
OF 1.5 IS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH CIRCULAR LL CLOUDS AND A CENTER
LT 75NMI FROM A SMALL AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS
1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    27/1516Z 28.0S 143.6W WINDSAT

...RAMIREZ
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9楼#
发布于:2018-01-28 07:45
30kts风旗布满四象限,且具有一些35kts风旗
只要J判定为热带,00Z可能直升TS
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