9914dan
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[SH(17-18)]斐济以南五级强热带气旋“吉塔”(07F/09P.Gita) - 影响萨摩亚群岛,南下顺时针回转,展露风眼重创汤加,置换过后再登高峰 - FMS:110KT JTWC:125KT

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更多 发布于:2018-02-02 02:46
NRL编扰资讯

97P INVEST 180201 1800  15.0S  163.0E SHEM   15  1004

图片:20180201.1820.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.97PINVEST.15kts-NAmb-150S-1630E.100pc.jpg

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发布于:2018-02-02 02:53
96以东

图片:20180201.1800.goes-15.ir.97P.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.15S.163E.100pc.jpg

我喜欢做云图,更喜欢看云图
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发布于:2018-02-03 17:32
07F
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD07F CENTRE {[1000HPA}] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.3S
AND 162.7E AT 030600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION BASED ON HIMAWARI 8 IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC IN THE PAST 12 TO 24
HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO
500HPA. SYSTEM LIES ALONG AN UPPER RIDGE IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT IN A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
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9914dan
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发布于:2018-02-06 23:37
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD07F CENTRE {[1000HPA}] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.7S
AND 168.0E AT 060900UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI
8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION AROUND SUPPOSED LLCC WITH POOR ORGANISATION.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT IN A
EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif



图片:97P_gefs_06z.png




数值预期加速东移,发展步入正轨。
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327
327
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发布于:2018-02-07 10:00
JTWC:LOW
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.9S 170.6E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 062205Z AMSU METOP-A
89GHZ IMAGE SHOW A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 97P IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE AREA
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT.WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT 97P OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. DYNAMIC MODELS AGREE THAT 97P
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE 72-96 HOURS AND TRACK TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:070130.jpg

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发布于:2018-02-07 22:52

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


TPPS10 PGTW 071235
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97P (NW OF FIJI)
B. 07/1200Z
C. 15.60S
D. 172.93E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   07/0742Z  15.60S  171.58E  SSMS

   LOWE
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发布于:2018-02-08 08:01

图片:abpwsair .jpg


ABPW10 PGTW 072300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/072300Z-080600ZFEB2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072221ZFEB2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 149.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 151.1E, APPROXIMATELY
520 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) COVERED BY CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO PERSIST
AND WRAP IN. A 072001Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH POCKETS OF
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. A 071043Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 10-15 KNOT WINDS AND
HIGHER WINDS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DISTURBANCE, BEGINNING TO
WRAP IN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 93W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS)
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE
DISTURBANCE. GLOBAL ODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK
TO THE WEST. GFS AND NAVGEM PREDICT 93W WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY;
HOWEVER, UKMET AND ECMWF FAVOR ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS THE
CIRCULATION PROPAGATES WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 072230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.9S 170.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 176.1E, APPROXIMATELY
135 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND FLARING CONVECTION. A 071853Z 91GHZ
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTH BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO
BE FLARING AND NOT WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 071037Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 10-15 KNOT WINDS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 97P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30
KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). DYNAMIC
MODELS AGREE THAT 97P WILL TRACK TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE TURNING TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
     (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
21.9S 179.3W, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND
BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP IN. A 071855Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LLC WITH ITS CENTER MOSTLY EXPOSED AND A
POCKET OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. A 070906Z OSCAT PASS SHOWS A
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 15-20 KNOT WINDS. THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
HIGH. UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM. ADDED AREA IN PARA
2.B.(2) AS A LOW.//
NNNN
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发布于:2018-02-08 22:58
WTPS11 NFFN 081200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 081414 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 179.7W
AT 081200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD07F MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25
KNOTS.  

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING IN THE
PAST 3 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES JUST NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE, UNDER
MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH
AND IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED
ON 0.3 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.0, PT AND MET AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS,
YIELDING T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE-HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 14.3S 177.1W MOV ENE AT 13KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 13.8S 174.6W MOV ENE AT 13KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 14.2S 172.0W MOV E AT 12KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 15.7S 170.2W MOV ESE AT 12KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2000UTC.


图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


TPPS11 PGTW 081204
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97P (N OF FIJI)
B. 08/1140Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
BE FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   LEMBKE

TXPS21 KNES 081154
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97P)
B.  08/1130Z
C.  14.8S
D.  179.6W
E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T1.0/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...GREATER THAN 0.2 CURVED BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...KIM
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发布于:2018-02-09 08:21
 09P NINE 180208 1800 14.9S 178.1W SHEM 25 997
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发布于:2018-02-09 09:08
ASCAT 082123

图片:WMBds7.png


GALE WARNING 006 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 081917 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD07F CENTER 994HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.8S 179.3W AT
081800UTC. POSITION POOR. TD08F MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS.

EXPECT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UPTO 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 18 TO
24 HOURS WITHIN 70 TO 150 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM CENTER IN THE SECTORS FROM
NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH DEPRESSION.

THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS AREA.


图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif


TPPS10 PGTW 090020
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NE OF FIJI)
B. 08/2350Z
C. 13.32S
D. 175.44W
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   DAVIS

TXPS21 KNES 090007
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97P)
B.  08/2330Z
C.  15.2S
D.  175.7W
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...CURVED BANDING WRAPS .3 ON LOG-10 SPIRAL FOR DT=1.5. MET
AND PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...VELASCO
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