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[SH(17-18)]TCFA - 斐济近海热带低压08F(98P) - 与09P互旋,北上影响斐济

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更多 发布于:2018-02-03 13:31
98P INVEST 180203 0000  19.0S  179.0E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20180203.0440.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.98PINVEST.15kts-NAmb-190S-1790E.100pc.jpg


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发布于:2018-02-03 17:33
08F
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD08F CENTRE {[1000HPA}] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.1S
AND 178.0E AT 030600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION BASED ON HIMAWARI 8 IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC IN THE PAST 12 TO 24
HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO
500HPA. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT IN A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
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发布于:2018-02-06 23:18
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD08F CENTRE {[999HPA}] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 22.3S
AND 179.9W AT 060900UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI
8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT TO THE NORTHEAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO
500HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A DIFFLUENT REGION AND IN
A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT IN A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:98P.gif

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发布于:2018-02-07 22:53

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


TPPS11 PGTW 071932
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (W OF TONGA)
B. 07/1800Z
C. 21.91S
D. 178.91W
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   RICHARDSON

TXPS29 KNES 070622
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98P)
B.  07/0530Z
C.  22.0S
D.  178.3W
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...GREATER THAN .2 CURVED BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...KIM
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发布于:2018-02-08 08:02

图片:abpwsair .jpg


ABPW10 PGTW 072300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/072300Z-080600ZFEB2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072221ZFEB2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 149.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 151.1E, APPROXIMATELY
520 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) COVERED BY CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO PERSIST
AND WRAP IN. A 072001Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH POCKETS OF
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. A 071043Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 10-15 KNOT WINDS AND
HIGHER WINDS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DISTURBANCE, BEGINNING TO
WRAP IN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 93W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS)
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE
DISTURBANCE. GLOBAL ODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK
TO THE WEST. GFS AND NAVGEM PREDICT 93W WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY;
HOWEVER, UKMET AND ECMWF FAVOR ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS THE
CIRCULATION PROPAGATES WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 072230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.9S 170.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 176.1E, APPROXIMATELY
135 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND FLARING CONVECTION. A 071853Z 91GHZ
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTH BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO
BE FLARING AND NOT WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 071037Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 10-15 KNOT WINDS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 97P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30
KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). DYNAMIC
MODELS AGREE THAT 97P WILL TRACK TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE TURNING TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
21.9S 179.3W, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND
BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP IN. A 071855Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LLC WITH ITS CENTER MOSTLY EXPOSED AND A
POCKET OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. A 070906Z OSCAT PASS SHOWS A
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 15-20 KNOT WINDS. THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
HIGH. UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM. ADDED AREA IN PARA
2.B.(2) AS A LOW.//
NNNN
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发布于:2018-02-09 02:38
Special Weather Bulletin Number SIXTY EIGHT ON HEAVY RAIN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI AT 5:30AM ON FRIDAY the 08th of February 2018.

HEAVY RAIN WARNING
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

HEAVY RAIN ALERT
A HEAVY RAIN ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VITI LEVU, EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

SITUATION

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD07F LIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF VANUA LEVU AND IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS AWAY FROM FIJI.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F WAS ANALYSED NEAR 20.9 SOUTH 179.5 EAST OR ABOUT 250KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADAVU AT 3AM THIS MORNING.
TD08F IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP AND AFFECT PARTS OF THE COUNTRY TILL LATER TOMORROW.

图片:2018SH97_4KMIRIMG_201802081730.gif




98P:弱小 可怜 又无助终于等来了97P,与之互旋,从而北上影响斐济并寻求发展机会

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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发布于:2018-02-09 09:05
从1800Z就觉得值T2.0以上……但JTWC却这么不看好……

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif


TPPS11 PGTW 090031
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (S OF FIJI)
B. 09/0000Z
C. 20.12S
D. 179.16E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   DAVIS

TXPS29 KNES 090015
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98P)
B.  08/2330Z
C.  20.4S
D.  179.4E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...CURVED BANDING WRAPS .4 FOR DT=2.5. MET=2.0 PT=2.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...VELASCO
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发布于:2018-02-09 23:39
Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVENTY FIVE ON HEAVY RAIN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI AT 3:30AM ON SATURDAY the 10th of February 2018.

HEAVY RAIN WARNING
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE EASTERN, SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR OF VITI LEVU, LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND IS NOW ALSO IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF VITI LEVU, VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

HEAVY RAIN ALERT
A HEAVY RAIN ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.  

SITUATION

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD08F WAS ANALYSED NEAR 17.6 SOUTH 179.3 EAST OR ABOUT 35KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KORO OR 45 KM
NORTH OF GAU AT 3AM THIS MORNING.
TD08F IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARDS TOWARDS VANUA LEVU WITH THE ASSOCIATED RAIN BANDS AFFECTING THE COUNTRY TILL EARLY SUNDAY.
北上影响斐济。

图片:20180209_1450_himawari8_x_ir1km_bw_98PINVEST_25kts-1000mb-184S-1794E_100pc.jpg



图片:98P.gif

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发布于:2018-02-10 09:56

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif


TPPS11 PGTW 100050
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SE OF FIJI)
B. 10/0000Z
C. 17.39S
D. 179.74E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   BERMEA
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发布于:2018-02-10 11:00
JTWC:TCFA
WTPS21 PGTW 100230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4S 179.9E TO 14.4S 173.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.2S 180.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AREA CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.7S 179.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 180.0E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 092103 AMSU METOP-A IMAGE SHOW  A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND FLARING
CONVECTION. THE FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE ANIMATED LOOP SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED LLCC SURROUNDED BY CONVECVETION. UPPER ANALYSIS DEPICT
98P BEING LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)  VERTICAL
WINDS SHEAR AND BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. WARM (28-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OF 98P OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT 98P WILL TRACK EASTERN TRAJECTORY IN THE EARLY TAUS AS IT
FOLLOWS TC 09P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28
TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110230Z.//
NNNN

图片:sh9818.gif



图片:100300.jpg

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