颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-08-03
  • 最后登录2018-04-26
  • 粉丝50
  • 关注1
  • 发帖数384
  • 来自
阅读:18720回复:129

[WP]1802号热带风暴“三巴”(02W.Sanba) - 打破西太台风历史空窗期,横过菲律宾南部

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-02-05 06:49
NRL编扰资讯

93W INVEST 180204 1800   3.0N  163.0E WPAC   15   NA
93W INVEST 180204 1800   3.2N  161.1E WPAC   15  1010

图片:20180204.2210.himawari-8.vis.93W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.3N.163E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-02-15 09:57编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +5 威望 +5
  • luhang
    威望 5
    93W
    02-05 08:23
  • luhang
    金钱 5
    93W
    02-05 08:23
喜欢1 评分2

最新喜欢:

台风大师台风大师
颱風若只如初見。
zjk369
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
  • 注册日期2012-08-19
  • 最后登录2018-04-24
  • 粉丝21
  • 关注3
  • 发帖数167
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2018-02-06 14:45

图片:abiosair.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-02-07 01:20编辑了帖子]
回复(1) 喜欢(0)     评分
meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
  • 注册日期2011-09-08
  • 最后登录2018-04-26
  • 粉丝415
  • 关注38
  • 发帖数17277
  • 来自
2楼#
发布于:2018-02-06 15:23
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.0N
155.9E, APPROXIMATELY 914 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISORGANIZED FLARING
CONVECTION AND BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING. A 060440Z SSMI 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION AND NO LOWER LEVEL
STRUCTURE IS INDICATED. A 052223Z ASCAT PASS RETURNED MOSTLY 10 KNOT
WINDS, WITH AN AREA OF 15 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK, WIDESPREAD DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE AREAS OF
FLARING CONVECTION AND LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. NAVGEM
AND GFS PREDICT 93W WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN IN THE
LATER TAUS, WHILE UKMET AND ECMWF MAINTAIN THE CIRCULATION TO THE
PHILIPPINES BUT DO NOT INTENSIFY THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
  • 注册日期2011-09-08
  • 最后登录2018-04-26
  • 粉丝415
  • 关注38
  • 发帖数17277
  • 来自
3楼#
发布于:2018-02-06 15:47
主流数值支持发展
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
Mitch
强台风
强台风
  • 注册日期2013-11-14
  • 最后登录2018-04-26
  • 粉丝102
  • 关注0
  • 发帖数4985
  • 来自
4楼#
发布于:2018-02-06 16:33
数值预测的1802,数值预测登陆菲律宾进南海。目前垂直风切很小对发展也比较有利。。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
约瑟但以理
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
  • 注册日期2016-02-23
  • 最后登录2018-04-24
  • 粉丝48
  • 关注107
  • 发帖数678
  • 来自
5楼#
发布于:2018-02-06 20:44
9 3 W / I N V E S T / 1 8 0 2 0 6 / 1 2 0 0 / 3 . 1 N / 1 5 5 . 8 E / W P A C / 2 0 / 1 0 0 8
同时JMA预告48H内升格LPA
家住宝山吴淞
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
热带风暴
热带风暴
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2018-04-26
  • 粉丝6
  • 关注9
  • 发帖数92
  • 来自
6楼#
发布于:2018-02-07 08:59
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.0N 155.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 150.7E, APPROXIMATELY 447
NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 062042Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND FLARING
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS
AN AREA OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPEMET OF 93W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 93W WILL TRACK TO THE WEST, BUT VARY ON THE SPEED AND RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

图片:93aac3cec3fdfc034baf5b8ad83f8794a5c22687.jpg

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-02-07 09:16编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
wwwawa
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
  • 注册日期2017-09-21
  • 最后登录2018-04-26
  • 粉丝30
  • 关注2
  • 发帖数831
  • 来自
7楼#
发布于:2018-02-07 11:35
有希望成台

图片:360截图179001028012683.png


图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
约瑟但以理
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
  • 注册日期2016-02-23
  • 最后登录2018-04-24
  • 粉丝48
  • 关注107
  • 发帖数678
  • 来自
8楼#
发布于:2018-02-07 14:38
JMA:LPA
对流集中在东侧,定位似乎有问题
家住宝山吴淞
回复(1) 喜欢(0)     评分
meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
  • 注册日期2011-09-08
  • 最后登录2018-04-26
  • 粉丝415
  • 关注38
  • 发帖数17277
  • 来自
9楼#
发布于:2018-02-07 16:01
约瑟但以理锛欽MA:LPA
对流集中在东侧,定位似乎有问题
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
LPA还未生成,是预报明天LPA、后天TD。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
上一页
游客

返回顶部