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[WP]1802号热带气旋“三巴”(02W.Sanba)机构发报专贴

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更多 发布于:2018-02-08 06:27

图片:wp932018.20180207222248.gif


WTPN21 PGTW 072230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.4N 151.6E TO 10.1N 144.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 072100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.5N 151.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 149.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 151.1E, APPROXIMATELY 520
NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
COVERED BY CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO PERSIST AND WRAP IN. A
072001Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. A 071043Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 10-15 KNOT WINDS AND HIGHER WINDS
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DISTURBANCE, BEGINNING TO WRAP IN. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 93W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS) WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK TO THE WEST.
GFS AND NAVGEM PREDICT 93W WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY; HOWEVER, UKMET AND
ECMWF FAVOR ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS THE CIRCULATION
PROPAGATES WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
082230Z.//
NNNN
[9914dan于2018-02-11 15:10编辑了帖子]
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【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
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发布于:2018-02-09 07:29
JTWC/02W/#01/02-08 18Z

图片:wp0218.gif


WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z --- NEAR 10.8N 147.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 147.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 10.9N 146.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 10.0N 143.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 9.1N 141.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 8.7N 137.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 9.5N 130.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 9.9N 125.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 9.6N 121.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 147.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND
092100Z.//
NNNN
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发布于:2018-02-09 07:29
JTWC/02W/#01/02-08 18Z Prognostic Reasoning

WDPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH FALRING CONVECTION ALONG ITS AXIS AND A BROAD AREA OF
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ANIMATION DOES REVEAL SOME MID
LEVEL TURNING IN THE CONVECTIVE MASS TO THE NORTH OF THE INITIAL
POSITION; HOWEVER, THERE IS NOT AN LLC ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 081647Z SSMI
85 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING LOW LEVEL CLOUD WRAPPING
INTO AN ELONGATED CENTRAL AREA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESED AT
20 KNOTS BASED ON THE LACK OF CONSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE LLC AND
SUPPORTED BY A 081005Z OSCAT IMAGE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
WITH 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF VWS AND GREATER THAN 28C SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF A
STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 02W IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 12
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL
THEN TRACK DUE WEST AFTER TAU 48 ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNTIL
TAU 72 AS IT ENCOUNTERS FAVORABLE SSTS AND FAVORABLE TO MARGINAL
WINDSHEAR.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, LAND INTERACTION WITH THE PHILLIPINES IS EXPECTED
TO SPIN DOWN THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT
AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME.//
NNNN
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发布于:2018-02-09 10:40
JTWC/02W/#02/02-09 00Z

图片:wp022018.20180209022905.gif


WTPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z --- NEAR 11.0N 147.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 147.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 10.7N 145.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 9.6N 142.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 9.3N 139.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 9.2N 136.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 9.9N 130.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 10.0N 125.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 9.8N 120.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 10.9N 146.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND
100300Z.//
NNNN
[327于2018-02-09 11:10编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-02-09 11:15
JTWC/02W/#02/02-09 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH AREAS
OF CONVECTION STILL SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND BEING SHEARED TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY A 082158Z 89GHZ AMSU
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS AND BASED ON A
PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE AS TD 02W IS JUST EQUATORWARD
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTING GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT,
HOWEVER, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE IMPINGING ON THE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL CREATING MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SSTS IN THE
REGION ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE ABOVE 28 CELSIUS. TC 02W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.  
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 02W IS EXPECTED TO TURN ABRUPTLY WESTWARD IN THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS AS AN EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST IS ALSO BUILDING AND
WILL ASSUME STEERING TOWARD A TRACK SLIGHTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
BRINGING TD 02W SOUTH OF 10 DEGREES AROUND TAU 24. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE SUPPORTING INTENSIFICATION TO 35 KNOTS
BY TAU 24 AND 45 KNOTS BY TAU 48. PERSISTENT WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN
OBSTACLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
SUSTAIN INTENSITY AROUND 40 TO 45 KNOTS. NOTABLY GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE CONCENTRATED POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TD 02W IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH
THE PHILIPPINES SOMETIME AROUND TAU 96. LAND INTERACTION WILL
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM SIGNIFICANTLY TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 120. HOWEVER,
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED REFORM SOON AFTER ENTERING
THE SULU SEA WITH HIGH PROBABILITY FOR REINTENSIFICATION. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK POSSIBILITIES. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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发布于:2018-02-09 17:10
JTWC/02W/#03/02-09 06Z

图片:wp0218.gif


WTPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090600Z --- NEAR 10.5N 146.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.5N 146.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 9.6N 143.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 8.8N 140.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 8.3N 137.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 8.4N 134.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 9.5N 128.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 9.6N 123.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 9.5N 119.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 145.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z,
092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.//
NNNN
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luhang
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发布于:2018-02-09 17:14
JTWC/02W/#03/02-09 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
A 090618Z 89 GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING WEAK BANDING AND
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND
HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW A 090616Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
AND A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, RANGING FROM 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
TD 02W IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS AND THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST WEAKENS. AS TD 02W BEGINS TO ROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
STR IT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD. TD 02W WILL EXPERIENCE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND TRACK OVER WARM WATER ALLOWING
IT TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 48. SHORTLY
AFTER TAU 48, TD 02W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS IT
ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, BEYOND 72 HOURS, TD 02W WILL SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES MINDANAO IN THE
SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES. BY TAU 96 TD 02W WEAKEN TO 40 KNOTS DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. AFTER TAU 96, TD 02W
WILL MOVE INTO THE SULU SEA WHERE IT WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH WARM OCEAN WATER.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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t02436
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发布于:2018-02-09 22:48
JTWC/02W/#04/02-09 12Z

图片:wp0218.gif


WTPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 004    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z --- NEAR 10.1N 144.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 144.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 8.9N 142.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 8.2N 139.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 8.1N 136.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 8.7N 133.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 9.7N 126.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 9.5N 122.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 9.6N 118.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 144.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM SOUTH
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
NNNN
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t02436
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发布于:2018-02-09 22:48
JTWC/02W/#04/02-09 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM
SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A 091144Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING WEAK BANDING
AND THAT NEARLY ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE
OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TD 02W IS BEING STEERED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS AND THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST WEAKENS. AS TD 02W BEGINS TO ROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
STR AT TAU 24 IT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD. SHORTLY AFTER TAU
36, TD 02W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT
ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR, WHICH AT THAT TIME WILL BE
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TD 02W WILL EXPERIENCE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS AND TRACK OVER WARM WATER ALLOWING IT TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, BEYOND 72 HOURS, TD 02W WILL MAINTAIN
AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES MINDANAO IN THE SOUTHERN
PHILIPPINES. BY TAU 96 TD 02W WILL WEAKEN TO 40 KNOTS DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. AFTER TAU 96, TD 02W
WILL MOVE INTO THE SULU SEA WHERE IT WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH WARM OCEAN WATER. JUST
PRIOR TO TAU 120, TD 02W WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO PRINCESA
WITH AN INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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327
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发布于:2018-02-10 08:30
JTWC/02W/#05/02-09 18Z

图片:wp022018.20180209200518.gif


WTPN31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 005    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z --- NEAR 10.0N 143.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 143.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 9.0N 140.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 8.4N 137.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 8.7N 134.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 9.2N 131.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 9.9N 125.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 9.7N 120.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 10.3N 115.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 142.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF FARAULEP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//
NNNN
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