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[气候监测]平流层突然变暖(SSW)事件

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更多 发布于:2018-02-11 18:48

图片:2.jpg




Weather models are suggesting a very high probability of a rare North Pole weather phenomenon called Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) taking place later this month and bringing prolonged bitterly-cold temperatures to the United Kingdom and parts of Europe. Such weather event hasn't occurred since 2010 when it brought coldest March for 51 years to Scotland.
"There is a clear indication of an imminent split in the polar vortex, currently located over central-western Greenland. The main center will drift to the Canadian Plains, while a new area will form over northern Russia," TWC forecaster Dr. Dave Reynolds said. "This will drift towards the Caspian Sea, then westwards across the Mediterranean, Iberia and out to the near Atlantic during the next two weeks, weakening as it does so."
The polar vortex is expected to split during Thursday, February 8 and Friday, February 9, and become well developed by Sunday, February 11.






"The process of vortex splitting is accompanied by Sudden Stratospheric Warming, whereby temperatures in the stratosphere rise. This warming can then extend downwards through the depth of the atmosphere and result in an increased risk of blocking, which in winter-time raises the chance of widespread cold conditions developing," said Reynolds.


This process won't take place overnight as it usually takes 10 to 25 days to form and there is still uncertainty of how things will develop. However, computer models indicate a cold, blocked pattern over Scandinavia for the last week of February and first week of March, reinforced by a possible polar vortex split and accompanying stratospheric warming.


The warning is contained in the UK government official February to April forecast being briefed to the Cabinet Office, transport bosses, councils and emergency services.


The UK Met Office Meteorologist Aidan McGivern takes a look at the trend during the next 10 days and explains the phenomenon:A Sudden Stratospheric Warming is an event in which the polar vortex of westerly winds in the winter hemisphere slows down or even reverses direction over the course of a few days. The change is accompanied by a rise of stratospheric temperature by several tens of kelvins.
Although sudden stratospheric warmings are mainly forced by planetary-scale waves which propagate up from the lower atmosphere, there is also a subsequent return effect of sudden stratospheric warmings on the surface weather.
Following SSW, the high altitude winds reverse to flow eastward instead of their usual westward. The eastward winds progress down through the atmosphere and weaken the jet stream, often giving easterly winds near the surface and resulting in dramatic reductions in temperature in Europe.
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发布于:2018-02-17 21:45
极地漩涡刚刚分成两部分 - 准备迎接欧洲到美国的狂野天气

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The polar vortex just split in two… And this split will have far-reaching consequences for weather patterns from Canada to Eurasia. Since the polar vortex tends to be associated with some of the coldest air during the winter, the temporary separation means that ultra cold air is on the move. The latest split is likely to put Western Europe and much of Eurasia into the deep freeze for the rest of February, and will offer glimpses of hope for snow lovers along the U.S. East Coast.
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发布于:2018-02-17 21:47
看样子我国要大暖?
世人笑我太暴力,我笑世人不给力。用心体会用心看,方能明白我真谛。
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发布于:2018-02-17 21:53

This split occurred in the stratosphere

The main polar vortex exists in the stratosphere, which is the layer of air above where most of our weather occurs. A sudden warming of the stratosphere over the Arctic, appropriately known as a “sudden stratospheric warming event,” took place in early-to-mid February, and this has caused the splitting of the stratospheric polar vortex.

Sudden stratospheric warming events occur when large atmospheric waves send energy upward, into the stratosphere, setting in motion a complex process that results in the temporary breakdown of the polar vortex. This February’s stratospheric warming event was particularly extreme, possibly setting records for how sharply temperatures spiked in the upper atmosphere.


图片:1.png


The polar vortex just split in two. Get ready for some wild weather from Europe to the U.S.

The polar vortex split isn’t the only factor favoring a cold snap in Europe, warmup in the Eastern U.S., and cool down in the West. There’s also a cycle of atmospheric pressure over the North Atlantic Ocean, known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), that can increase the odds of colder and snowier weather in some of these areas.

Computer models are projecting the NAO will become strongly negative during the next few weeks in response to the polar vortex split and stratospheric warming event, and this also favors cold and snow in Western Europe. (It also ups the odds of similar weather in the eastern U.S., but that may not happen right away.)
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发布于:2019-01-02 19:59
突发性平流层变暖(SSW)正在进行中,可能在欧洲大部分地区出现严重的冬季天气

图片:4.jpg




目前正在北极上空的平流层发生一次重大的突发性平流层变暖(SSW)事件。虽然不是每个SSW事件都是相同的,并且它需要一些时间来展示它在对流层中的影响,但是气象学家说我们可以预期在接下来的15到20天内会有更冷的空气进入欧洲,冬季天气严寒,甚至可能下雪。东欧和中欧,可能会持续到二月。

目前的SSW过程大约在一周前开始,现在正逐渐从平流层向下进入对流层,这是地球大气层的最低层。

“SSW事件通常对北极产生最强烈的影响。预计北极地区及其周围地区可能会产生更高的气压,这使得寒冷的北极气团能够向南到达中纬度地区。目前,GEFS正在模拟更多经典的SSW响应,通过在北极地区产生更高的气压,并将更冷的气团带入欧洲和北美东部地区,“SWE气象学家说。

虽然突然的平流层温暖主要受到从较低大气层向上传播的行星尺度波浪的推动,但随后还会出现突然的平流层温暖对地表天气的影响,英国气象局于2018年初见证了一次SSW事件。

SSW - model:https://giant.gfycat.com/HealthyAlienatedAgouti.webm

“在平流层突然变暖之后,高海拔的风向西流向西而不是通常向东流动。向西的风向下穿过大气层并削弱了急流,通常会在地表附近产生东风,导致气温急剧下降。欧洲。这个过程可能需要几天到几周的时间。“

当SSW带来东风时,这往往会略微改变我们的天气模式,削弱低压区域并将我们的急流向南移动。这导致北大西洋的高压,“阻塞”温和的大西洋空气流动,并在冷空气中从大陆向东拖。 SSW并不总是会导致这种结果 - 但是经常会出现寒流,因此SSW会大大增加冬季天气的风险。

GFS 850hPa TA : https://giant.gfycat.com/OccasionalWetFly.webm
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5楼#
发布于:2019-01-05 11:52

图片:1901041152291296522.gif





极涡即将分裂成3块,为美国和欧洲的部分地区带来了严冬的天气和暴风雪条件......

可能由平流层剧烈变暖引起,这些增暖空气在北极上空约30公里处,并由此导致极涡的分裂。


PS:最近2年厄尔尼诺或者拉尼娜影响不大,最近东太3.4区的厄尔尼诺指数在阀值线上徘徊,太平洋涛动指数在中性范围,比较突出的就剩下这个比较新颖的突发性平流层变暖,这个超出了预测模型
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发布于:2019-01-07 11:25
2019年1月初 欧洲中东部暴风雪

图片:3.jpg



寒流袭击欧洲中东部和其它地区,到1月6日暴风雪造成希腊2人死亡,预计恶劣天气将持续到下一周


预计在接下来的几天里,暴风雪将继续影响德国,奥地利,瑞士,意大利和北非等其它地区,一直向东到罗马尼亚和南到希腊。阿尔卑斯山的部分地区可能会有超过1.5米的积雪。

上周伊朗部分地区也遭遇暴风雪袭击,1月3日和4日有17个省份受到严重影响。


https://giant.gfycat.com/DigitalSillyLeonberger.webm


图片:4.jpg



Dinten自治市的夜间降雪(萨尔茨堡,奥地利,01/05/2019)

图片:5.jpg



奥地利房子屋顶积雪
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发布于:2019-01-07 12:14

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图片:1.png



 继续增温,面积扩大
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发布于:2019-01-08 11:42
1月6日,严重冬季天气袭击欧洲
在过去的几天里,被称为安德烈的冬季风暴席卷了欧洲大部分地区,大量降雪,使居民陷入困境,造成严重的交通中断,欧洲至少有10人死亡,阿尔卑斯山至少有7人死亡,希腊有3人死亡。 仍然有几个人失踪,其中包括挪威的4人。 阿尔卑斯山北部的雪崩风险仍处于4级(第二高),预测中将出现另一轮大雪。

SWE气象学家说:“整个阿尔卑斯山北部,特别是整个瑞士东部和奥地利北部,已经度过一周强烈的过度降雪。” “据报道,当地有几个地区有100  -  200厘米的积雪。”

预计本周将迎来另一轮降雪,模型显示1月11日星期五之前将有超过一米的新雪。




GFS Winter Overview

https://giant.gfycat.com/ThornyDiligentImperatorangel.webm
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发布于:2019-01-09 18:18

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萨尔巴赫自治市冰雪覆盖的房子(萨尔茨堡,奥地利,08.01.2019)
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