9914dan
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[SH(17-18)]布鲁姆西南二级热带气旋“开尔文”(17U/10S.Kelvin) - 近岸快速开眼,登陆西澳沿岸;疑出现“棕海效应”,风眼在陆地长期维持 - BOM:60KT JTWC:80KT

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-02-13 02:25
NRL编扰资讯

91S INVEST 180212 1800  10.5S  134.0E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20180212_1800_himawari8_x_ir1km_bw_91PINVEST_15kts-NAmb-105S-1340E_100pc.jpg

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nicedavid12138
热带风暴
热带风暴
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1楼#
发布于:2018-02-13 17:12
A weak tropical low lies about 350 kilometres east northeast of Darwin. It is expected to move in a west southwest direction on Wednesday and Thursday, towards the northern Kimberley. On Friday it is likely to move off the west Kimberley coast. If it remains over water, there is a high chance of it developing into a tropical cyclone over the weekend.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Low
Friday:Moderate

图片:0840irbw4.jpg

图片:0840irbd4.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-02-13 22:29编辑了帖子]
我喜欢做云图,更喜欢看云图
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327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
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2楼#
发布于:2018-02-13 21:59
JTWC:LOW
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.9S 133.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 130947Z 91GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD REGION OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH
FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FORM CONVECTIVE BANDS. INVEST 91S
CURRENTLY INHABITS A MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT (15-20
KNOTS) BUT BENEFITS FROM STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) ALTHOUGH 91S IS
CURRENTLY PARTIALLY OVER LAND. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS AGREE THAT 91S
WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST, BUT DISAGREE WHETHER THE DISTURBANCE WILL
TRANSIT OVER WATER, OVER LAND, OR PARTIALLY OVER BOTH. MODELS ARE
ALSO SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL, WITH THE UKMO AND GFS
PREDICTING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MID TO LATE TAUS. JGSM AND
NAVGEM MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION BUT DO NOT FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:abiosair.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-02-13 22:32编辑了帖子]
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9914dan
论坛版主-副热带高压
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3楼#
发布于:2018-02-14 02:32
 (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 133.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 131.5E, APPROXIMATELY
54 NM SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 131253Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING REGION OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH LARGE AREAS OF
FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP IN AS CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DUE TO A NEARBY POINT SOURCE,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) JUST OFFSHORE.  
91S IS CURRENTLY CONSOLIDATING OVER LAND, HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE 91S WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. IT
IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER 91S WILL TRACK OVERWATER, BUT RAPID
CONSOLIDATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HIGHLY PROBABLE IF AND WHEN
IT DOES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

图片:rgb-animated.gif



图片:rbtop_lalo-animated.gif

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刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
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4楼#
发布于:2018-02-14 04:45
TPXS10 PGTW 131845
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (N AUSTRALIA)
B. 13/1800Z
C. 13.20S
D. 131.35E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   DAVIS
人民的名义
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luhang
论坛版主-副热带高压
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5楼#
发布于:2018-02-14 14:06
17U
A tropical low (17U) was located near the west coast of the Northern Territory at 1pm WST Wednesday, about 220 kilometres north northeast of Kununurra and 240 kilometres southwest of Darwin. It is expected to move across the north Kimberley on Thursday before moving off the west Kimberley coast Thursday night or Friday morning. It is a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Friday night, when it should be located off the west Kimberley coast.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday:Low
Friday:High
Saturday:High

图片:91S.gif

[9914dan于2018-02-14 16:33编辑了帖子]
回眸过去,守望现在,眺望未来!
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meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
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6楼#
发布于:2018-02-14 15:50
预报17U在布鲁姆附近出海后显著发展,2天半之后达到二级热带气旋。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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约瑟但以理
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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7楼#
发布于:2018-02-14 17:33

 

Time (AWST)

Intensity Category

Latitude
(decimal deg.)

Longitude
(decimal deg.)

Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)

0hr 2 pm February 14 tropical low 14.1S 129.3E 55
+6hr 8 pm February 14 tropical low 14.6S 128.6E 80
+12hr 2 am February 15 tropical low 15.0S 127.6E 100
+18hr 8 am February 15 tropical low 15.4S 126.6E 125
+24hr 2 pm February 15 tropical low 15.8S 125.5E 145
+36hr 2 am February 16 tropical low 16.6S 123.4E 180
+48hr 2 pm February 16 1 17.2S 121.7E 220
+60hr 2 am February 17 2 17.7S 120.7E 255
+72hr 2 pm February 17 2 18.3S 119.9E 290
家住宝山吴淞
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9914dan
论坛版主-副热带高压
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8楼#
发布于:2018-02-15 02:51

图片:wgmsvor.gif



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图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif



图片:2018SH91_4KMIRIMG_201802141810.gif



图片:IDWP0005.png



横过波拿巴湾,涡度已泛白,BOM上望澳式C3。
[9914dan于2018-02-15 04:45编辑了帖子]
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zjk369
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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9楼#
发布于:2018-02-16 00:59

图片:c46bf8dcd100baa1297208804b10b912c8fc2e01.jpg



WTXS21
发布于15 / 1400Z
TCFA文本
WTXS21 PGTW 151400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7S 125.0E TO 19.1S 119.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 151200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.9S 124.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 128.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 124.7E, APPROXIMATELY
150 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151113Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING REGION OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH RESURGENT
FLARING CONVECTION. THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED ON
THE COAST, DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS STILL OVER
LAND. STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND RADIAL OUTFLOW IN THE VICINITY OF
91S ARE FUELING THE DEEP CONVECTION. 91S IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (15-20 KT) VWS, WHICH IS SHEARING THE CONVECTION FROM THE
LLCC. FAVORABLE WARM SSTS (29-30 CELSIUS) AND LOWER VWS AWAIT 91S
ONCE IT EMERGES OVER WATER TO THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT
91S WILL TRACK OVER WATER IN 18-24 HOURS AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP IN THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
161400Z.//NNNN

卫星修复公告
TPXS10 PGTW 151516
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (SW OF DARWIN)
B. 15/1450Z
C. 17.10S
D. 123.80E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
  15/1113Z  16.82S  124.73E  MMHS
  15/1253Z  17.08S  124.37E  MMHS
  LOWE
[9914dan于2018-02-16 19:00编辑了帖子]
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