9914dan
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[WP]棉兰老岛附近95W - 4.8N 126.2E - JMA:LPA

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更多 发布于:2018-02-21 17:30
95W INVEST 180221 0600   4.2N  146.1E WPAC   15   NA

图片:QQ图片20180221180553.jpg

[9914dan于2018-02-25 13:50编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +5 威望 +5
  • luhang
    威望 5
    95W
    02-21 18:29
  • luhang
    金钱 5
    95W
    02-21 18:29
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台风大师台风大师
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1楼#
发布于:2018-02-21 19:47
风场没扫到中心,不过也到了黄旗风力

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广西壮族自治区贵港市港北区荷城小学4年级3班学生
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2楼#
发布于:2018-02-21 20:23
唯一一个看好95W成旋的数值

图片:95W_tracks_00z.png



不过强度上巅峰应该在登菲前几个小时,路径应该是西行的,不利于转向
[9914dan于2018-02-22 01:45编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-02-22 07:56
有模有样的95w
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luhang
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发布于:2018-02-22 09:10
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.5N
143.8E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL TURNING
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE AREA OF MID LEVEL TURNING AND
PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL TURNING, WHICH IS DEPICTED IN
THE 211644Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING TO THE WEST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LIMITED IF ANY DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO THE EQUATOR AND POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:abpwsair.jpg

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5楼#
发布于:2018-02-22 10:25
西太下沉太严重,环流几乎被蒸干了
我知道我很笨,很没用,可是,我白天拼命练习法术,我很努力!夜晚…发奋提高知识,然后每天……到拼抢散派任务,这么多的努力和汗水,都是为了能和姐姐们一样,成为一个堂堂正正的狐妖!
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6楼#
发布于:2018-02-22 22:43
一到晚上形态就好看

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发布于:2018-02-23 07:02

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif



图片:abpwsair.jpg


ABPW10 PGTW 222200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/222200Z-230600ZFEB2018//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.5N 143.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 135.9E, APPROXIMATELY 120
NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 221808Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION
OVER THE TOP OF A BROAD BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A
PARTIAL 221215Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 15 KNOT WINDS ON THE
PERIPHERY SUGGESTING 15 TO 20 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF THE LLC. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENABLING STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW (LESS THAN
10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE (29-30 CELSIUS) AND ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE CIRCULATION
TRAVELLING WESTWARD IN A STRAIGHT LINE WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT FOR
THE DURATION OF THE MODEL RUN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B(1). TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN
[刚打酱油回来于2018-02-23 07:04编辑了帖子]
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8楼#
发布于:2018-02-23 09:36
Synoptic TimeLatitudeLongitudeIntensity
2018022300005.9134.220





图片:latestNWP.png



图片:2018WP95_1KMSRVIS_201802230030.GIF



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发布于:2018-02-23 10:39
JMA: 5N 137E
JTWC: 5.7N 135.9E

ASCAT 230008

图片:WMBds257.png



图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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