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论坛版主-副热带高压
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[SH(17-18)]马达加斯加以北海域93S - 9.6S 47.9E

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-02-25 20:20
93S INVEST 180225 1200   5.8S   54.3E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20180225.1106.f15.x.vis2km.93SINVEST.15kts-NAmb-58S-543E.88pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-02-27 16:54编辑了帖子]
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ただひとつの“今”を歌いつづける。
meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
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1楼#
发布于:2018-02-25 20:48
The thunderstorm activity over the Indian ocean near equatorial area is mainly concentrated within two broad area of relative low pressure area. The western most is located north of 10°S and mid- way of the Chagos and Seychelles archipelago. The second low pressure area is located over the far eastern part of the basin between 5°S and 15°S. The transequatorial flow is slightly enhanced in relationship with both lows. However the associated thunderstorm activity remains limited at present time and there are no sign of organisation.

Within a large scale context gradually more conducive for sustained and widespread deep convection within the ITCZ, an active Monsoon Trough (MT) is expected to gradually built through next week over the western part of the bassin, mainly 50°E-70°E and 5°S-15°S. If no tropical cyclogenesis are suggested by the current guidance over the next 5 days, a building signal is already suggested for the 5-10 days period within the MT.

Development of a moderate tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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2楼#
发布于:2018-02-25 20:49

图片:cyclogenese.png

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meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
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3楼#
发布于:2018-02-26 20:20
Convection is moderate within a Monsoon Trough (MT) branch axed near 09S East of 65E. A weak clockwise circulation is located within the MT, near 8.5S/69E. However, the environmental conditions remain rather unconducive for cyclogenesis over this area, especially in the upper levels.

The strongest convective activity is located within the buffer area of the monsoon flow, West of 65E. The available observation data do not depict any closed circulation yet within this wide area of disturbed weather. A trade winds burst should trigger the appearance of a clockwise circulation in the North-East of Madagascar by Thursday. Then, this system should benefit from an excellent upper divergence and very conducive environmental conditions to gradually intensify. Thus, the available guidance still maintains a moderate to high risk of cyclogenesis for next week-end. The ensemble models suggest a parabolic track, potentially threatening the Eastern malagasy coastline and/or the Mascarenes islands in the beginning of next week.

For the next 5 days, the risk of development of a moderate tropical storm become low on Thursday and moderate on Saturday.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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