9914dan
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[SH(17-18)]马达加斯加以东热带气旋第6号“杜马奇尔”(11S.Dumazile) - 南下环境优越,无奈结构难以稳固,发展不尽如人意 - MFR:85KT JTWC:105KT

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更多 发布于:2018-02-26 21:43
94S INVEST 180226 1200  11.2S   56.4E SHEM   15  1010

图片:20180226_1300_msg1_x_ir1km_bw_94SINVEST_15kts-1010mb-112S-564E_100pc.jpg


[9914dan于2018-03-09 00:45编辑了帖子]
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    02-26 22:26
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追风的小孩追风的小孩 933954933954
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台风
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1楼#
发布于:2018-02-26 21:54
数值预报的猛货是这个。不是93S
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iam最小值
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2楼#
发布于:2018-02-27 11:13
ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/261800Z-271800ZFEB2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.8S 58.5E, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 261107Z SSMI 85
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED
DEEP FLARING CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15 KNOTS), AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS).
THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY SIGNATURE IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND
DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME MITIGATING NEAR-TERM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 48 HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abiosair.jpg

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zjk369
强热带风暴
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3楼#
发布于:2018-02-27 20:47

图片:abpwsair 201802271230.jpg

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4楼#
发布于:2018-02-27 20:47
MEDIUM
ABIO10 PGTW 271230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/271230Z-271800ZFEB2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.8S 58.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 56.2E, APPROXIMATELY 500
NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING, FLARING CONVECTION ABOVE A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 271051Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
NOTCH FEATURE IN THE CONVECTION ABOVE THE LLC. 94S IS AIDED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CREATING ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW
(10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM
(29-31 CELSIUS) ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN.
GLOBAL MODELS INCREASINGLY AGREE THAT 94S WILL CONSOLIDATE AND GAIN
STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST IT WILL MOVE AND WHEN
IT COULD GAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED IN AREA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN
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iam最小值
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5楼#
发布于:2018-02-27 21:08
DATE: 2018/02/27 AT 1200 UTC

Potential cyclogenesis North-East of Madagascar :

Last observations show a broad ill defined surface trough, around Agalega. Convective activity is
concentrated in the southern semi-circle, in the slowing down area of the trade wind flow. No closed
circulation is depicted within this area.

Tomorrow, the trade wind flow convergence is expected to increase with the evacuation of the
baroclinic low south of Madagascar. With the persistence of a very good upper divergence, a closed
circulation is forecast to build, South-South-West of Agalega. The lack of equatorial convergence
and a wide structure may at first slow the deepening. But in a very conducive environment this
week-end, the intensification rate is likely to increase. A parabolic meridian track is expected due to
the absence of a mid-tropospheric ridge at south.

Numerical guidance is in a good agreement to forecast a cyclogenesis over the week-end. Yet, they
differ on its exact location and the deepening rate, which induces a lot of uncertainty on a possible
threat to inhabited areas.

For the next 5 days, the risk of development of a moderate tropical storm become low on
Friday, moderate on Saturday and high on Sunday.

图片:20180227.1130.msg1.x.vis2km.94SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-118S-578E.100pc.jpg

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meow
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6楼#
发布于:2018-02-27 21:31
iam最小值锛欴ATE: 2018/02/27 AT 1200 UTC

Potential cyclogenesis North-East of Madagascar :

Last observations show a broad ill ...
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
现在连动向都预报了。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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meow
世纪风王
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7楼#
发布于:2018-02-28 20:12
可能周五或周六就达到命名标准。

图片:cyclogenese.png


Cyclogenesis North of Tromelin island :

Today, the last ASCAT swath indicates a wide clockwise circulation centred approximatively near 12S/55E. Maximum winds are estimated at 15kt and locally 20 kt within the monsoon feeding. Minimal pressure is estimated at 1008 hPa according with Tromelin island data.

Environmental conditions are good for a significant development. From Thursday, vorticity is forecasted to increase with the arrival of an equatorial Rossby wave and the strengthening of the low level convergence both polerward and equatorward. Upper level conditions are also expected to be favourable with a weak vertical windshear and the establishment of a polerward and an equatorward outflow channel. A significant deepening is expected from Friday. From this date, the system is forecasted to move southward over the western side of the mid-tropospheric ridge and transit between Madagascar and reunion island during Monday.

For the next 5 days, the risk of development of a moderate tropical storm becomes high on Saturday.
[meow于2018-02-28 20:14编辑了帖子]
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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07051a18
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发布于:2018-03-01 19:40
EC 01/00Z ENSEMBLE.
登陸機會不大.

图片:EEMN_2.png



图片:A_5.png



GFS 01/06Z預報則非常進取, 預料94S將是南印風王

图片:A_5.png


[07051a18于2018-03-01 19:48编辑了帖子]
EC路徑圖為自行製造 沒有即時連結
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Mitch
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发布于:2018-03-01 22:38
用户被禁言,该主题自动屏蔽!
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