9914dan
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[SH(17-18)]瓦努阿图以西四级强热带气旋“霍拉”(09F/12P.Hola) - 横过瓦努阿图,针眼昙花一现,南下影响洛亚蒂群岛 - FMS:90KT JTWC:100KT

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更多 发布于:2018-03-03 14:21
97P INVEST 180303 0600  14.3S  174.3E SHEM   15  1010

图片:20180303.0550.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.97PINVEST.15kts-1010mb-143S-1743E.100pc.jpg


[9914dan于2018-03-12 23:36编辑了帖子]
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nicedavid12138
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1楼#
发布于:2018-03-03 14:37
A low pressure system lies in the shaded area below. The potential for this low pressure system to
develop into a Tropical Cyclone is LOW
我喜欢做云图,更喜欢看云图
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ray790601
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2楼#
发布于:2018-03-03 17:28

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 030924 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD09F CENTRE [1007HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.5S
AND 174.2E AT 030600UTC. TD09F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI 8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC IN THE PAST 12 TO 24
HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO
700HPA. SYSTEM LIES ALONG AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND INITIALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
***************    

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
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红豆棒冰冰
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3楼#
发布于:2018-03-03 19:23
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.3S 174.3E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 030725Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT FLARING, UNORGANIZED CONVECTION ABOVE A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE,
WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE LLC. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON 97P
REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 60. IN
ADDITION MODELS PREDICT A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHWEST IN THE MID TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:QQ图片20180303192249.jpg

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zjk369
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4楼#
发布于:2018-03-05 03:04

图片:abpwsair 201803041700.jpg


ABPW10 PGTW 041730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/041730Z-050600ZMAR2018//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 174.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 173.1E, APPROXIMATELY
276 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK, ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST BECAUSE OF
MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. A 041020Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 20-30 KNOT WINDS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A BROAD CIRCULATION. SST REMAINS WARM (28-
30 CELSIUS) AND SUPPORTS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS TRACK
THE SYSTEM SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOP 97P IN THE TAU 36-60 RANGE AS THE
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
[iam最小值于2018-03-05 14:20编辑了帖子]
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9914dan
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5楼#
发布于:2018-03-06 00:52
** WTPS11 NFFN 051200 ***
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 051326 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 171.8E
AT 051200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI 8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  TD09F MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 05
KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. OVERALL ORGANISATION IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO
500HPA. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.3 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.0. PT AND MET AGREE. THUS YIELDING
T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT WEST-SOUTHWEST
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 15.8S 170.8E MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 16.3S 169.5E MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 16.7S 168.2E MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 17.0S 167.4E MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 052000 UTC.

图片:QQ图片20180306212352.gif


WTPS21 PGTW 051400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6S 171.5E TO 17.2S 165.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 171.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S
172.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 171.1E, APPROXIMATELY 206 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO OCCUR. A 050958Z
AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH
WITH BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. SST REMAIN WARM (28-30
CELSIUS) AND SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS TRACK
THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOP 97P AT APPROXIMATELY TAU 24.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061400Z.//
NNN

图片:QQ图片20180306212346.gif

[9914dan于2018-03-06 21:25编辑了帖子]
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刚打酱油回来
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6楼#
发布于:2018-03-06 10:04

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif


TPPS10 PGTW 060033
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97P (NW OF FIJI)
B. 05/2350Z
C. 15.53S
D. 171.35E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5 MET AND PT YIELD 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   LOWE

TXPS22 KNES 060042
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97P)
B.  05/2330Z
C.  15.3S
D.  171.1E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...SHEAR PATTERN USED WITH CIRCULALRY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND
CENTER LESS THAN 75 NM FROM LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN DT=2.0. MET=1.5
AND ADJUSTMENT YIELDS PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...BOLL

WTPS11 NFFN 060000
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 060132 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 170.9E
AT 060000 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI 8 VIS/EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  TD09F MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 02 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30
KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSE LLCC. OVERALL
ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE
IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.5. PT AND MET
AGREE. THUS YIELDING T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT WEST WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 15.9S 169.4E MOV WSW AT 07 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 16.3S 167.9E MOV WSW AT 07 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 16.7S 166.7E MOV WSW AT 07 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 17.0S 166.1E MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 060800 UTC.
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zjk369
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7楼#
发布于:2018-03-06 20:06

图片:97P INVEST 0103.gif


97P INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 06, 2018:

Location: 15.7°S 169.8°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb



TPPS10 PGTW 060944 A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97P (NW OF FIJI)
B. 06/0900ZC. 15.82S
D. 169.40EE. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.0/2.0/D2.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRSG. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS A 1.5 AND PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO
DT.I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
  06/0352Z  15.30S  170.22E  SSMI   06/0435Z  15.48S  170.10E  SSMS
  06/0442Z  15.72S  169.82E  MMHS   06/0640Z  15.73S  169.72E  SSMS
  VEERKAMP
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meow
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8楼#
发布于:2018-03-06 22:34
吼啦

图片:65660.gif


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 061404 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HOLA CENTRE 994HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S
169.0E AT 061200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 08
KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN EAST
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN WEST SEMICIRCLE.  

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND
LLCC. OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 24
HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER RIDGE WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0. PT
AND MET AGREE. THUS YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT WEST-SOUTHWEST
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 16.3S 167.8E MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 16.7S 166.8E MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 17.2S 166.3E MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 17.9S 166.6E MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE HOLA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 062000 UTC.
[meow于2018-03-06 23:47编辑了帖子]
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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iam最小值
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9楼#
发布于:2018-03-07 01:06
JTWC首报居然上望100KT

WTPS32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051352ZMAR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 168.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 168.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 16.5S 167.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 16.9S 166.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 17.2S 165.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 18.0S 165.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 20.5S 168.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 27.0S 172.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 32.9S 175.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 168.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 113 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED AS THE CONVECTION REORIENTED
AND DEEPENED CLOSER TO THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 061036Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LLC THAT INCLUDES 35-KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS THAT IS MITIGATED
BY ITS STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW.
A ROBUST WESTERLY OUTFLOW, EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY,
IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY,
ALONG-TRACK SSTS ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30C. THESE OVERALL POSITIVE
DYNAMICS ARE, HOWEVER, TEMPORARILY TEMPERED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY CAUSED BY A RECEDING MID-LATITUDE LOW. TC 12P IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AFTER TAU 36, IT IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND
TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW ZEALAND. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 100 KNOTS NEAR TAU 72 AFTER IT
MAKES THE RECURVE POLEWARD, ENHANCED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, TC 12P WILL BE REDUCED TO 55 KNOTS WITH AN
EXPANDING WIND FIELD AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVING
TRACK WITH NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED. THIS, IN ADDITION TO
THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 051400).//
NNNN

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[9914dan于2018-03-07 23:22编辑了帖子]
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