9914dan
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[SH(17-18)]所罗门群岛以南一级热带气旋“琳达”(10F/21U/13P.Linda) - 径直南下短暂增强,昆士兰州东南沿岸受其外围影响

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更多 发布于:2018-03-09 15:01
90P INVEST 180309 0600   4.5S  160.0E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20180309.0620.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.90PINVEST.15kts-NAmb-45S-1600E.100pc.jpg


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Mitch
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1楼#
发布于:2018-03-11 14:21
BOM认为周三前有发展为TC可能,周三开始大气环流环境转为不利于热带系统发展。
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红豆棒冰冰
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发布于:2018-03-12 07:11
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.6S 158.6E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA,
SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT
SOURCE ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

图片:QQ图片20180312234039.jpg




图片:QQ图片20180312234014.gif

[9914dan于2018-03-12 23:41编辑了帖子]
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刚打酱油回来
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发布于:2018-03-12 10:00

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif


TPPS11 PGTW 120032
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (S OF SOLOMON ISLAND)
B. 12/0000Z
C. 13.70S
D. 159.64E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT YIELD 1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   LOWE

TXPS24 KNES 120023
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90P)
B.  11/2330Z
C.  12.7S
D.  158.0E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS
1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...WHISNANT
人民的名义
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zjk369
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4楼#
发布于:2018-03-12 12:02
JTWC 0230Z直接評級TC

图片:abpwsair 201803120230.jpg


图片:sh9018.gif

图片:90P_120230sams.jpg

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meow
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5楼#
发布于:2018-03-12 13:24
zjk369锛欽TWC 0230Z直接評級TC鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
TCFA全称“热带气旋形成警报”,不是TC。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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iam最小值
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6楼#
发布于:2018-03-12 16:02
位置比较尴尬,目前在160E附近,BOM和FMS只给出中等的发展机率,新西兰倒是比较看好,新喀里多尼亚已经开始发报,从后期趋势看应该是进入BOM责任区的。数值预测成旋的时间也就明天,之后环境转差,看晚些时候BOM会不会发报吧。

BOM:

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Monday 12 March 2018
for the period until midnight EST Thursday 15 March 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.
Potential Cyclones:

At 12pm EST Monday, a tropical low was located south of the Solomon Islands in the northeastern Coral Sea, moving south at 20 km/h. The low is expected to adopt a more south-southwestward track during the next 24 to 36 hours, and may develop further during this period. The probability of this low developing into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday is moderate.
The system may approach the central or southern Queensland coast on Wednesday or Thursday. At this stage it is considered likely to remain offshore. Atmospheric conditions will become less favourable for a tropical cyclone, and the probability of the system becoming (or remaining) a tropical cyclone decreases to low from Wednesday.
Although the low is unlikely to be a tropical cyclone by this time, it will remain a significant system and is likely to produce large waves on exposed southern Queensland beaches late in the week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday:Moderate
Wednesday:Low
Thursday:Low

FMS:

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD10F CENTER [1000HPA] ANALYSISED NEAR 12.4S
160.0E AT 112100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERY OBSERVATIONS.

ORGANISATION POOR WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO EAST. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER A UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS OVER TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

新西兰:

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 0404 UTC 12-Mar-2018

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

There are presently no tropical cyclones in the Coral Sea or South
Pacific areas.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC TUE 13-MAR-2018
A low (TD10F) was analysed near 13.5S 160.4E at 1PM New Zealand time
Monday afternoon. The low is expected to track southwards and then
southwestwards into the northern Tasman Sea while intensifying. There
is a HIGH risk of this low developing into a tropical cyclone in the
next 36 hours.

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC FRI 16-MAR-2018
TD10F is likely to track southwestwards towards the Queensland coast,
likely as a tropical cyclone, then weakening from Wednesday or early
Thursday. There is a chance of lanfall on the Queensland coast,
however, it is more likely to recurve towards the southeast into the
northern Tasman Sea on Thursday and Friday. There is a MODERATE risk
of this low still being a tropical cyclone on Wednesday, but the risk
then decreases.

The next bulletin will be issued by 0500 UTC Tue 13-Mar-2018

新喀里多尼亚:

图片:MFNC 20180312 06UTC.png

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Mitch
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7楼#
发布于:2018-03-12 19:37
FMS发报12UTC开始由BOM接管发报。
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zjk369
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8楼#
发布于:2018-03-12 20:05
TPPS11 PGTW 120953
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (S OF SOLOMAN ISLANDS)
B. 12/0900Z
C. 15.28S
D. 160.05E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.0/2.0  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET ALSO YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO
DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   12/0359Z  13.98S  159.82E  SSMI
   12/0459Z  14.42S  159.90E  SSMS
   12/0515Z  14.70S  160.02E  MMHS
   VEERKAMP


TPPS11 PGTW 121220
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (S OF SOLOMAN ISLANDS)
B. 12/1200Z
C. 15.59S
D. 160.13E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.5/2.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT WITH CONSTRAINT
OF 0.5 T NUMBER DEVELOPMENT IN 6HR BROKEN DUE TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
12/0707Z  14.72S  159.92E  SSMS
12/0728Z  14.75S  160.02E  WIND
VEERKAMP

图片:20180312.1200.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.90PINVEST.35kts-996mb-157S-1599E.100pc.jpg



图片:QQ图片20180312234345.gif



图片:QQ图片20180312234349.gif

[9914dan于2018-03-12 23:47编辑了帖子]
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iam最小值
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发布于:2018-03-12 21:48
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 120856 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD10F CENTER [990HPA] ANALYSISED NEAR 14.0S
160.0E AT 120600UTC.FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO BRISBANE
TCWC.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTUBANCE SUMMARY ON TD10F UNLESS
HANDED OVER BY BRISBANE TCWC.

FMS发最后一报summary,BOM接手后面工作
[iam最小值于2018-03-12 21:49编辑了帖子]
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