9914dan
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[SH(17-18)]黑德兰港西北五级强热带气旋“马库斯”(20U/15S.Marcus) - 侵袭北澳,多次构眼;好事多磨,终成C5 - BOM:125KT 912hPa (澳洲海域十二年以来最强) JTWC:140KT

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更多 发布于:2018-03-13 22:41
编扰资讯 (NRL)

92S INVEST 180313 1200  10.0S  133.7E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20180313.1430.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.92SINVEST.15kts-NAmb-100S-1337E.100pc.jpg


[9914dan于2018-03-29 01:04编辑了帖子]
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  • 颱風巨爵
    威望 10
    Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 110 knots [205 km/h]
    03-21 09:48
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    原创帖
    03-14 11:03
  • tcfa_gw
    金钱 3
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    03-14 11:03
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红豆棒冰冰
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发布于:2018-03-14 07:40
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.5S 134.4E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION ABOVE A BROAD, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW (10 KNOTS) DUE TO A
POINT SOURCE OVER 92S THAT IS FUELING ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS 92S REACHING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AFTER TAU 24 AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY
BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, THERE EXISTS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WHETHER 92S WILL TRACK OVER WATER ALONG THE COAST OR OVER LAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

图片:8a5fb3de9c82d1580a2310aa8c0a19d8bd3e42da.jpg

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-03-14 11:43编辑了帖子]
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iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2018-03-15 13:30
WTXS21 PGTW 150500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0S 130.1E TO 11.8S 133.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.0S 130.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.9S 131.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 210
NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 150040Z 89GHZ METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CONVECTION CENTER. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), VERY WARM SSTS (29-30 C),
AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORTING THE BUILDING CONVECTION. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, WITH SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE NORTH COAST OF
AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
BASED ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND SUPPORTIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
160500Z.//
NNNN

图片:sh9218 20180315 0000Z.gif





图片:BOM 20180315 03UTC.png

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ray790601
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发布于:2018-03-15 23:12
編號20U...
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1430 UTC 15/03/2018
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 9.3S
Longitude: 131.5E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east [090 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds:    
Radius of Maximum Winds:    
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  15/1800:  9.6S 131.9E:     040 [080]:  030  [055]: 1001
+12:  16/0000: 10.0S 132.3E:     055 [100]:  030  [055]: 1001
+18:  16/0600: 10.4S 132.3E:     065 [125]:  030  [055]: 1000
+24:  16/1200: 10.8S 132.3E:     080 [145]:  035  [065]:  998
+36:  17/0000: 11.6S 131.4E:     100 [185]:  035  [065]:  998
+48:  17/1200: 12.5S 129.9E:     120 [220]:  040  [075]:  996
+60:  18/0000: 13.1S 128.1E:     140 [255]:  045  [085]:  993
+72:  18/1200: 13.7S 125.8E:     155 [290]:  050  [095]:  990
+96:  19/1200: 14.7S 120.6E:     200 [370]:  060  [110]:  984
+120: 20/1200: 14.5S 114.9E:     290 [535]:  090  [165]:  959
REMARKS:
Position based on IR satellite imagery and 0954Z SSMIS microwave imagery.
Earlier visible imagery showed a partially exposed low level centre, providing
greater confidence in the analysis position. However, convection has developed
over the last 3 hours, obscuring the centre. The system appears relatively
well-stacked to 500hPa. The upper ridge lies to the south, with CIMMS winds
indicating moderate easterly shear of 20 to 30 knots.

Dvorak intensity analysis is based on curved band pattern wrap of 0.3 yielding a
DT of 1.5-2. MET and PT are 2.0 so FT is set at 2.0.

Initial track movement is to the southeast under the influence of a westerly
wind surge to the north of the system. It is forecast to move close to the north
coast of the Northern Territory, before curving to the southwest and towards the
Timor Sea in 24 to 48 hours. Development is expected to be a standard rate,
although may be hindered by land influences.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/2000 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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meow
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发布于:2018-03-15 23:42
ray790601锛毦幪20U...
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE ...
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
第一份报文就上看90kt了。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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zjk369
强热带风暴
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发布于:2018-03-16 07:09
TPXS12 PGTW 152115
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (NW OF DARWIN)
B. 15/2030Z
C. 10.21S
D. 132.69E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVTN WRAPS .40 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT YIELD 2.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
  DARLOW

图片:15S_151800sair.jpg

图片:abpwsair 201803152200.jpg


[9914dan于2018-03-16 18:25编辑了帖子]

图片

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meow
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发布于:2018-03-16 09:38
命名Marcus

Details of Tropical Cyclone Marcus at 9:30 am ACST:

Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 10.3 degrees South 132.6 degrees East, estimated to be 95 kilometres north of Croker Island and 310 kilometres northeast of Darwin.

Movement: southeast at 13 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus has formed north of Cobourg Peninsula. Tropical Cyclone Marcis is expected to approach the northwest Top End coast today, most likely crossing the Cobourg Peninsula tonight. The tropical cyclone is expected to turn south towards the southwest, passing close to Darwin during Saturday, before moving into the Timor Sea late on Saturday or early Sunday. During Sunday, Tropical Cyclone Marcus is expected to approach the north Kimberley coast.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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meow
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发布于:2018-03-16 10:11

图片:IDD65001.png


由于接近陆地,未来2天都将维持一级热带气旋,但预报3天后开始显著增强,澳洲气象局仍上望5天后最大风速90节。

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0202 UTC 16/03/2018
Name: Tropical Cyclone Marcus
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 10.3S
Longitude: 132.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [135 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds:    
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  16/0600: 10.7S 132.7E:     050 [095]:  040  [075]:  998
+12:  16/1200: 11.1S 132.6E:     065 [120]:  040  [075]:  998
+18:  16/1800: 11.5S 132.3E:     075 [145]:  040  [075]:  998
+24:  17/0000: 12.0S 131.7E:     090 [165]:  035  [065]:  998
+36:  17/1200: 12.9S 130.3E:     110 [200]:  035  [065]:  996
+48:  18/0000: 13.4S 128.6E:     130 [235]:  040  [075]:  994
+60:  18/1200: 14.0S 126.3E:     150 [275]:  050  [095]:  992
+72:  19/0000: 14.5S 123.8E:     165 [310]:  055  [100]:  988
+96:  20/0000: 14.6S 118.3E:     210 [390]:  075  [140]:  973
+120: 21/0000: 14.6S 111.8E:     300 [555]:  090  [165]:  960
REMARKS:
Latest position based on Warruwi radar with good confidence.

A partial ASCAT pass at 15/13Z ind gales in the northwest quadrant and recent
microwave imagery has shown convective banding wrapping strongly around the west
to northwest to northeast quadrants.

Recent observations: 36kn at McCluer Island at 16/0130Z.

Dvorak 16/00Z: Curved band of 0.5 gives DT 2.5. MET and PAT are 3.0 based on D+
trend. FT is based on MET.

20U was upgraded to Tropical Cyclone Marcus based on improved structure in
microwave, radar and satellite and supported by the Dvorak subjective
assessment.

At 15/18Z CIMSS winds shear indicated moderate easterly shear of 20 to 30 knots
but recent satellite imagery suggests this is easing.

Initial track movement is to the SSE under the influence of a westerly wind
surge to the north of the system. The tropical low is forecast to turn south and
move close to the north coast of the Northern Territory today due to a mid level
ridge to the east. The system is expected to curve to the southwest and towards
the Timor Sea in 24 to 48 hours as a mid latitude trough moves east across the
Great Australian Bight and pushes the mid level ridge over southern Australia
further north, creating an easterly steering. Development is expected to be at a
standard rate, aided by a  Rossby wave arriving over western Arafura Sea and
Timor Sea today, decreasing environmental shear closer to the NT coast and
continued favorouble low level surges.

Development may be hindered by land influences and ingestion of dry air on the
outer western flank. Once the tropical low moves into the Timor Sea during the
weekend, development is likely to continue at a standard after briefly
entangling with the north Kimberley coast. Steering will remain easterly long
term due to a strong mid level ridge to the south, taking the system into the
Indian Ocean.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0800 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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Mitch
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发布于:2018-03-16 12:48
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Mitch
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发布于:2018-03-16 16:24
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