9914dan
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[WP]1803号超强台风“杰拉华”(03W.Jelawat) - 槽前猛烈爆发,罕见三月超台,菲东暖池扬眉吐气 - CMA:52m/s JMA:105KT JTWC:130KT

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-03-16 15:01
NRL编扰资讯

96W INVEST 180316 0600   7.0N  158.0E WPAC   15   NA

图片:20180316.0700.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.96WINVEST.15kts-NAmb-70N-1580E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-04-25 19:20编辑了帖子]
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wwwawa
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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1楼#
发布于:2018-03-16 18:34
难道这是JMA预想天气图中提到的LPA?

图片:18031709.png

图片:18031809.png

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红豆棒冰冰
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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2楼#
发布于:2018-03-17 00:48
TXPQ22 KNES 161536
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)
B. 16/1430Z
C. 7.4N
D. 158.1E
E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA.NEITHER ASCAT NOR MHS DATA SUGGEST A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
EXISTS ATTM SO PBO MID LEVEL CENTER. SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING
RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
 NIL
...TURK

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif

[9914dan于2018-03-17 01:47编辑了帖子]
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台风大师
热带低压
热带低压
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3楼#
发布于:2018-03-17 03:56
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.3N
156.6E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 161652Z SSMIS PARTIAL
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KNOT) AND DECREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SUPPORTIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK
CIRCULATION OR TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ON A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
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4楼#
发布于:2018-03-17 04:27
台风大师锛(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.3N
156.6E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI. ...
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
直接评了Medium
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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追风的乐趣
热带扰动
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5楼#
发布于:2018-03-17 08:56
对流散乱,成台渺茫。
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wwwawa
强热带风暴
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6楼#
发布于:2018-03-17 09:30
追风的乐趣锛毝粤魃⒙遥商烀!鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
你确定?JTWC已经发TCFA了
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约瑟但以理
强热带风暴
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7楼#
发布于:2018-03-17 09:49
JTWC:TCFA
JMA:连LPA都没有
一个天一个地
家住宝山吴淞
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327
327
超强台风
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8楼#
发布于:2018-03-17 10:09
JTWC:TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 170230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 8.2N 156.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 170000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 156.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N
156.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 156.3E, APPROXIMATELY 115NM WEST OF
POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL
MASS OF CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING IN TO A
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 162312Z PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS SHOWS 20KT WINDS FLOWING INTO THE LLCC ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ARE
SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT INTO A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) IN THE EQUATORIAL WESTERN
PACIFIC AND WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
CONFLICTED ON WHICH DIRECTION 96W WILL TRAVEL FROM THE ABSENCE OF A
DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. HOWEVER, EACH SOLUTION INDICATES SOME
DEGREE OF POLEWARD DISPLACEMENT AND EVENTUALLY A SHIFT TO A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BEYOND TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180230Z.//
NNNN

图片:wp962018.20180317011349.gif




TPPN10 PGTW 170008

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (W OF POHNPEI)

B. 16/2340Z

C. 7.64N

D. 156.28E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   LEMBKE

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif

[9914dan于2018-03-17 10:21编辑了帖子]
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刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
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9楼#
发布于:2018-03-17 14:42
散架

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif


TPPN10 PGTW 170630
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (W OF POHNPEI)
B. 17/0600Z
C. 7.54N
D. 154.44E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.5  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
1.0 DT. MET/PT 1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   DAVIS
人民的名义
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