9914dan
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[WP]1803号热带气旋“杰拉华”(03W.Jelawat)机构发报专贴

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-03-17 09:22

图片:wp9618.gif


WTPN21 PGTW 170230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 8.2N 156.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 170000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 156.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N
156.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 156.3E, APPROXIMATELY 115NM WEST OF
POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL
MASS OF CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING IN TO A
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 162312Z PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS SHOWS 20KT WINDS FLOWING INTO THE LLCC ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ARE
SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT INTO A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) IN THE EQUATORIAL WESTERN
PACIFIC AND WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
CONFLICTED ON WHICH DIRECTION 96W WILL TRAVEL FROM THE ABSENCE OF A
DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. HOWEVER, EACH SOLUTION INDICATES SOME
DEGREE OF POLEWARD DISPLACEMENT AND EVENTUALLY A SHIFT TO A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BEYOND TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180230Z.//
NNNN
[9914dan于2018-03-25 15:08编辑了帖子]
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t02436
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1楼#
发布于:2018-03-18 11:16
JTWC/96W/TCFA/03-18 0230Z

图片:wp9618.gif


WTPN21 PGTW 180230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170221Z MAR 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 170230)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.7N 156.2E TO 10.0N 152.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 180000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 155.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.3N 156.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9N 155.8E, APPROXIMATELY 185
NM NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 172027Z SSMI/S 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A MASS OF PERSISTENT
CONVECTION WITH SOME ASSOCIATED FLARING CONVECTION ABOVE A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS
IN THE MODERATE RANGE (15-20KTS) BUT THE REGION OF FAVORABLY LOW VWS
IS EXPANDING. INVEST 96W IS TAPPING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE,
ENABLING ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THIS PORTION OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AGREE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH (25KTS) IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWEST BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST IN THE MID TERM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190230Z.//
NNNN
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iam最小值
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2楼#
发布于:2018-03-19 14:40
JTWC/96W/TCFA Cancelled/03-18 1430Z
WTPN21 PGTW 181430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180221ZMAR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 180230). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 155.8E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 156.4E, APPROXIMATELY 108 NM WEST OF POHNPEI.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION FLARING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER, AND MOST OF THE DEFINED TURNING IN THE MID LEVELS. AN
180739Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH WEAK BANDING AROUND THE PERIPHERY AND AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH, HOWEVER, WHEN VIEWING THE
180739Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN AS
VERY BROAD AND WAVE-LIKE IN APPEARANCE, AND NOT SHOWING A DEFINED
LOW LEVEL SYSTEM. AN 181038Z ASCAT PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC
DEPICTS A VERY WEAK (5-10 KNOT) AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
HIGHER WINDS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING OF ITS MOVEMENT, WITH SOME MODELS DEPICTING QUASI-
STATIONARY MOVEMENT IN THE EARLY TAUS BEFORE HEADING WEST-SOUTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY INDICATING CONSOLIDATION
THEY HAVE BACKED OFF AND NOW NO MODELS ARE SHOWING INTENSIFICATION
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE WEAK CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND
RECENT ASCAT PASS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

图片:wp9618 20180318 1200Z(TCFA取消).gif

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  • 9914dan
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    03-19 21:00
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ray790601
热带低压
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3楼#
发布于:2018-03-23 13:51
JTWC/96W/TCFA /03-23 0530Z

图片:wp962018.20180323052417.gif


WTPN21 PGTW 230530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.2N 148.0E TO 6.1N 143.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 4.3N 147.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.7N 147.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.3N 147.6E, APPROXIMATELY 265
NM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 222330Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT
CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DISTINCT BANDING WRAPPING IN AND A SMALL
AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 221151Z ASCAT
PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS A STILL SOMEWHAT BROAD CIRCULATION WITH
PRIMARILY 5-10 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING IN, BUT 20-25 KNOT WINDS AROUND
THE PERIPHERY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL
INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240530Z.//
NNNN
[ray790601于2018-03-23 13:55编辑了帖子]
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超强台风三巴
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4楼#
发布于:2018-03-24 09:38
JMA/TD-a/03-24 00Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年03月24日10時15分 発表

图片:a-00.png


<24日09時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        カロリン諸島
中心位置        北緯 4度35分(4.6度)
東経 146度20分(146.3度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        1006hPa
最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<25日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        カロリン諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 5度55分(5.9度)
東経 142度05分(142.1度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)
[超强台风三巴于2018-03-24 09:41编辑了帖子]
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20012018
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327
327
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5楼#
发布于:2018-03-24 13:40
JTWC/96W/TCFA/03-24 0530Z
WTPN21 PGTW 240530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230521Z MAR 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 230530)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.3N 146.1E TO 7.5N 139.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 5.5N 145.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.3N 147.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 145.9E, APPROXIMATELY
475 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
232309Z AMSU METOP-A 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN
ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WESTERN QUADRANT. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS 5-10KT WINDS SURROUNDING THE LLCC WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH  WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31
CELSIUS). HOWEVER, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS HINDERING SIGNIFICANT CONSOLIDATION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HRS AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250530Z.
//
NNNN

图片:wp9618.gif

[327于2018-03-24 13:45编辑了帖子]
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meow
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6楼#
发布于:2018-03-24 13:43
JMA/TD-a/03-24 03Z

图片:a-00.png


熱帯低気圧
平成30年03月24日13時05分 発表

<24日12時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 カロリン諸島
中心位置 北緯 4度50分(4.8度)
東経 146度05分(146.1度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<25日12時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 カロリン諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 6度05分(6.1度)
東経 141度30分(141.5度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
1条评分, 威望 +3
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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327
327
超强台风
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7楼#
发布于:2018-03-24 15:10
JMA/TD-a/03-24 06Z

图片:581978f0f736afc3c3e4d26fbf19ebc4b64512a2.jpg


熱帯低気圧
平成30年03月24日16時05分 発表

<24日15時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 カロリン諸島
中心位置 北緯 4度50分(4.8度)
東経 145度40分(145.7度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<25日15時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 カロリン諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 6度20分(6.3度)
東経 140度55分(140.9度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
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红豆棒冰冰
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8楼#
发布于:2018-03-24 20:50
JMA/TD-a/03-24 09Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年03月24日19時05分 発表
<24日18時の実況>
大きさ-
強さ-
熱帯低気圧
存在地域カロリン諸島
中心位置北緯 5度00分(5.0度)
東経 145度05分(145.1度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧1004hPa
最大風速15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速23m/s(45kt)
<25日18時の予報>
強さ-
存在地域カロリン諸島
予報円の中心北緯 6度35分(6.6度)
東経 139度55分(139.9度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径200km(110NM)

图片:a-00.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-03-24 20:53编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 威望 +3
  • 9914dan
    威望 3
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    03-24 21:44
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红豆棒冰冰
强热带风暴
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9楼#
发布于:2018-03-24 22:02
JMA/TD-a/03-24 12Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年03月24日22時00分 発表
<24日21時の実況>
大きさ-
強さ-
熱帯低気圧
存在地域カロリン諸島
中心位置北緯 5度10分(5.2度)
東経 144度30分(144.5度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧1004hPa
最大風速15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速23m/s(45kt)
<25日21時の予報>
強さ-
存在地域カロリン諸島
予報円の中心北緯 7度05分(7.1度)
東経 139度30分(139.5度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径200km(110NM)

图片:a-00 (1).png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-03-24 22:06编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 威望 +3
  • 9914dan
    威望 3
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    03-25 01:39
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