颱風巨爵
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[SH(17-18)]卡奔塔利亚湾三级强热带气旋“诺拉”(22U/16P.Nora) - 南下曾迅速增强,风切影响功败垂成,登陆约克角半岛 - BOM:85KT JTWC:95KT

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更多 发布于:2018-03-20 05:38
BOM路径图

图片:qldtc20180323CnnUsersndgrantnDesktopnNora1.png


NRL云图特写

图片:20180323.1010.hm8.ir.BD.16PNORA.65kts-980mb.jpg



NRL编扰资讯


94P INVEST 180319 1800  11.0S  146.0E SHEM   15   NA
94P INVEST 180319 1800  10.5S  144.5E SHEM   15  1007

图片:20180319.2130.himawari-8.vis.94P.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.11S.146E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-04-12 16:26编辑了帖子]
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颱風若只如初見。
933954
强热带风暴
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1楼#
发布于:2018-03-20 07:24
SH, 94, 2018032000,   , BEST,   0, 103S, 1440E,  15, 1007, DB
A weak Tropical Low, 1008 hPa, is located in the vicinity of Torres Strait, near 10S 140E. The low is expected to move west into the Arafura Sea and may further develop over the coming days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Tuesday:
Very Low.
Wednesday:
Low.
Thursday:
Moderate.
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iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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2楼#
发布于:2018-03-20 16:25
重新定位到阿拉弗拉海

ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZMAR2018//
RMKS/
……………………
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.4S
137.1E, APPROXIMATELY 228 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GOVE AIRPORT,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKLY
DEFINED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED,
FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. A 192353Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWS A DEFINED BUT BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT 94P WILL TRACK
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES NORTHERN
AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:abpwsair.jpg



Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:17 pm CST on Tuesday 20 March 2018
for the period until midnight CST Friday 23 March 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
NIL.
Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low, 1004 hPa, is located in the northeastern Arafura Sea near 7.8S 136.9E, 500 kilometres north of Nhulunbuy. The low is expected to move west before changing direction and begin moving towards the southeast during Thursday. The tropical low may develop into a tropical cyclone by Friday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Wednesday:Low.
Thursday:Moderate.
Friday:High.

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

[iam最小值于2018-03-20 16:27编辑了帖子]
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meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
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3楼#
发布于:2018-03-21 12:47
开始发报

图片:IDD65001.png


Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am ACST:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 110 kilometres of 9.4 degrees South 136.4 degrees East, estimated to be 315 kilometres north of Nhulunbuy and 340 kilometres north northeast of Milingimbi.

Movement: south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

A tropical low is developing north of Nhulunbuy in the Arafura Sea. While the tropical low will initially move towards the west or southwest, it is expected to turn eastwards, towards the Gulf of Carpentaria, early on Thursday morning before taking a more southeasterly path on Friday.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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Mitch
强台风
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4楼#
发布于:2018-03-21 12:57
卡奔塔利湾138E为界,以西达尔文发报,以东预警达尔文发报,分析报布里斯班发报。22U后期受季风槽影响往东南移动,可能环流比较大。
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meow
世纪风王
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发布于:2018-03-21 13:02
Mitch锛毧ū妓138E为界,以西达尔文发报,以东预警达尔文发报,分析报布里斯班发报。22U后期受季风槽影响往东南移动,可能环流比较大。鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
前几天还有个热低,所以目前这个系统更可能是23U。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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nicedavid12138
热带低压-GW
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6楼#
发布于:2018-03-21 21:36

图片:IDD65001.png




Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm ACST:


Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 110 kilometres of 9.7 degrees South, 135.8 degrees East , 300 kilometres north northwest of Nhulunbuy and 285 kilometres north northeast of Milingimbi .
Movement: west southwest at 6 kilometres per hour .
A tropical low is developing north of Nhulunbuy in the Arafura Sea. While the tropical low will initially move towards the west or southwest, it is expected to turn eastwards, towards the Gulf of Carpentaria, during Thursday before taking a more southeasterly path on Friday.
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meow
世纪风王
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7楼#
发布于:2018-03-22 04:21
TCFA
跳级发布TCFA

图片:sh9418.gif


WTPS21 PGTW 211830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.6S 135.5E TO 13.2S 138.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 211800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.0S 135.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4S
136.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 135.9E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211208Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INVEST 94P HAS
MOVED INTO AN AREA OF LOW-MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH VERY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT (28-30 CELSIUS) BOTH IN THE ARAFURA SEA AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA WHERE INVEST 94P IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER
NORTHWESTERN QUEENSLAND. HOWEVER, WITH FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT INTO A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
221830Z.//
NNNN
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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meow
世纪风王
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8楼#
发布于:2018-03-22 15:34
确认编号22U,预报24小时内命名。

图片:IDD65001.png


IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0721 UTC 22/03/2018
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 9.8S
Longitude: 135.9E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: east [084 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds:    
Radius of Maximum Winds:    
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  22/1200:  9.8S 136.2E:     070 [135]:  030  [055]:  995
+12:  22/1800:  9.8S 136.5E:     085 [155]:  030  [055]:  994
+18:  23/0000: 10.0S 137.1E:     095 [180]:  035  [065]:  993
+24:  23/0600: 10.4S 137.9E:     110 [200]:  040  [075]:  993
+36:  23/1800: 11.4S 139.3E:     130 [240]:  055  [100]:  984
+48:  24/0600: 13.0S 140.7E:     150 [275]:  065  [120]:  977
+60:  24/1800: 14.3S 141.1E:     170 [310]:  080  [150]:  962
+72:  25/0600: 15.3S 141.0E:     185 [345]:  080  [150]:  961
+96:  26/0600: 15.2S 141.3E:     230 [430]:  080  [150]:  961
+120: 27/0600: 15.7S 140.6E:     320 [590]:  080  [150]:  964
REMARKS:
Overnight satellite imagery has shown an increase in convection along the
monsoon trough through the Arafura Sea. Convection has fired consistently near
the centre in the early hours of the morning suggesting that the system has
reached T1.0.

The low is currently on the edge of the high shear environment but this is
expected to change during the day as the low moves under the upper ridge. The
environment remains favourable into the weekend for development and the system
should reach hurricane strength on Sunday. An upper trough passing to the south
on Friday and Saturday will enhance the outflow to the south.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/1400 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
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9楼#
发布于:2018-03-23 03:45
升格一級熱帶氣旋並命名Nora。受惠雙流出、高海温和低風切,入夜後系統快速發展,高低層均有捲眼跡象。BOM持續上望三級強熱帶氣旋強度,南下後期減速逼近卡灣南岸沿海各城鎮。其後數值模式預報展現分歧。

图片:IDD65001.png



Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Nora has formed off the NT northeast coast.


Areas affected:

Warning zone: Elcho Island to Cape Shield, including Nhulunbuy and Cape Keerweer to Thursday Island, including Weipa.

Watch zone: NT/Qld Border to Cape Keerweer.

Cancelled zones: None.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Nora at 3:30 am ACST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 75 kilometres of 9.9 degrees South, 136.7 degrees East , 255 kilometres north of Nhulunbuy and 640 kilometres west northwest of Weipa .
Movement: slow moving .

The cyclone is expected to intensify as it moves southeast today heading towards the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Tropical Cyclone Nora has formed to the north of Nhulunbuy. Tropical Cyclone Nora is currently moving eastwards but will begin a more southeasterly path during today and Saturday into the Gulf of Carpentaria. The system is expected to reach Category 2 during today and reach Category 3 during Saturday. By Sunday, the Tropical Cyclone will most likely be located over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria. A coastal crossing anywhere along the western Cape York Peninsula south of Weipa during Saturday or Sunday is possible.
[颱風巨爵于2018-03-23 12:30编辑了帖子]

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颱風若只如初見。
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