9914dan
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[SH(17-18)]珊瑚海二级热带气旋“爱瑞思”(11F/24U/17P.Iris) - 短暂促成BOM责任区内罕见的三旋共舞,一度重新转热增强,长期徘徊于昆士兰州外海

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更多 发布于:2018-03-21 21:45
NRL编扰资讯

95P INVEST 180321 1200  11.6S  163.1E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20180321.1330.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.95PINVEST.15kts-NAmb-116S-1631E.100pc.jpg

[9914dan于2018-04-14 13:09编辑了帖子]
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iam最小值
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发布于:2018-03-22 00:05
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 210855 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD11F CENTRE {[1001HPA]} WAS ANALYSED NEAR 9.6S
AND 161.8E AT 210600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT ABOUT THE NORTH AND EAST OF
SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
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Mitch
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发布于:2018-03-22 13:42
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iam最小值
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发布于:2018-03-22 15:07
ABPW10 PGTW 211900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/211900Z-220600ZMAR2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211821ZMAR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
……………………
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      ……………………
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.9S 163.8E, APPROXIMATELY  650NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW
CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
211605Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AMPLE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. 95P IS UNDER MODERATE-HIGH
(20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOLOMON ISLANDS AND
WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A
CIRCULATION TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, BUT ARE SPLIT ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT. GFS AND NAVGEM ARE THE ONLY 00Z MODELS
DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM, PREDICTING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 220004 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD11F CENTRE {[1001HPA]} WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10.8S
AND 164.5E AT 212100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT ABOUT THE NORTH AND EAST OF
SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

图片:20180322.0400.himawari8.x.vis2km.95PINVEST.20kts-1007mb-113S-1650E.100pc.jpg

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红豆棒冰冰
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发布于:2018-03-23 10:43
WTPS21 PGTW 230230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1S 163.8E TO 17.3S 161.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 163.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INV 95P), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S
163.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 163.5E, APPROXIMATELY 560NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
CONSOLODATE AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 222253Z BULLSEYE ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF 25KT
WINDS, WITH A SMALLER REGION OF 30KT WINDS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE WITH A POINT SOURCE OFFSET SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST CREATING GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT AT 28 CELSIUS BUT BECOME UNFAVORABLE
SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT AS 95P MAKES A CURVING TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH THE UKMO AND JGSM DISSENTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240230Z.//
NNNN

图片:sh9518.gif

[颱風巨爵于2018-03-23 14:51编辑了帖子]
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9914dan
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5楼#
发布于:2018-03-24 00:57
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 231346 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 162.4E
AT 231200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR EIR HIMAWARI-8 IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD11F MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 25 KNOTS.  

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT AROUND THE LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS
UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.0. MET AND PT AGREE.
THUS, YIELDING T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWEST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 240000 UTC 14.8S 161.4E MOV SW AT 08KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 241200 UTC 16.1S 160.8E MOV SSW AT 08KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 250000 UTC 17.1S 160.3E MOV SSW AT 06KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 251200 UTC 18.2S 160.3E MOV S AT 05 T WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 232000 UTC.

图片:20180323.1600.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.95PINVEST.30kts-1000mb-133S-1623E.100pc.jpg



图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


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iam最小值
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6楼#
发布于:2018-03-24 10:24
今天凌晨命名Iris

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 232005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE IRIS CENTRE 993HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 163.0E AT
231800 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR/EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 7
KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 40 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 170 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP
AROUND LLCC. OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0. MET AND PT AGREE.
THUS, YIELDING
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 240600 UTC 15.6S 162.0E MOV SW AT 08 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 241800 UTC 16.6S 161.4E MOV SSW AT 07 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 250600 UTC 17.7S 161.1E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 251800 UTC 18.8S 161.1E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON IRIS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
240200 UTC.

图片:Iris.gif

[颱風巨爵于2018-03-24 15:58编辑了帖子]
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Mitch
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发布于:2018-03-24 12:55
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刚打酱油回来
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发布于:2018-03-24 16:38
深对流重新在LLCC附近组织起来

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

人民的名义
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ray790601
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发布于:2018-03-24 17:06
BoM 責任區同時有3個熱帶氣旋,應該算是罕見的紀錄。

图片:IDA00041.png

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