9914dan
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[SH(17-18)]斐济以南一级热带气旋“乔茜”(12F/18P.Josie) - 影响斐济

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更多 发布于:2018-03-30 02:57
97P INVEST 180329 1800  18.0S  172.0E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20180329.1820.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.97PINVEST.15kts-NAmb-180S-1720E.100pc.jpg

[9914dan于2018-04-01 13:18编辑了帖子]
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ray790601
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发布于:2018-03-30 07:57
FMS 編號12F

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 292320 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12F CENTRE [1005HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 18.3S
171.6E AT 292100UTC. TD12F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWRI-8 VIS/IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
SUPPOSED LLLC. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.  

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TD12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

图片:20180329.2310.himawari-8.vis.97P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.18S.172E.100pc.jpg

图片:97P_gefs_latest.png

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Mitch
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发布于:2018-03-30 13:03
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红豆棒冰冰
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发布于:2018-03-30 14:50
ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/300600Z-310600ZMAR2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300153ZMAR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
……………………
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
……………………
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.6S 171.5E, APPROXIMATELY 189 NM EAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300423Z SSMIS 91
89GHZ PARTIAL IMAGE SHOW A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) ARE SUPPORTIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 97P WILL DEVELOP
FURTHER AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS, BUT VARY IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THE INTENSITY TREND. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

图片:abpwsair.jpg

[iam最小值于2018-03-30 14:53编辑了帖子]
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zjk369
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4楼#
发布于:2018-03-31 05:59
JTWC 21Z已發佈 MEDIUM

图片:abpwsair 201803302100.jpg


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台风大师
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发布于:2018-03-31 08:12
FMS升格TD
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 302016 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F CENTRE 1001HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 172.9E
AT 301800 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIRIMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  DEPRESSION MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT
ABOUT 05 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON ON 0.25 WRAP YIELDS DT=1.5. MET AND PT
AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS.


GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TD12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC 18.1S 174.7E MOV E AT 09KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC 18.4S 176.1E MOV ESE AT 08KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 18.8S 177.3E MOV ESE AT 07KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 19.4S 178.1E MOV ESE AT 06KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 310200UTC.

图片:QQ20180401-0.gif

[9914dan于2018-04-01 02:28编辑了帖子]
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iam最小值
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6楼#
发布于:2018-03-31 12:16
WTPS21 PGTW 310230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.8S 173.8E TO 19.8S 178.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 310000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0S 174.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.2S 173.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 174.1E, APPROXIMATELY
191 NM WEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 302147Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COVERED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER AND DEEP CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE CENTER AND IN THE NORTHERN
BAND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97P WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEAR FUTURE AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010230Z.//
NNNN

图片:sh9718 20180331 0000Z.gif



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 310155 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 173.8E
AT 310000 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  DEPRESSION MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND
LLCC. OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM
LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON ON 0.35 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. THUS,
YIELDING T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TD12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 18 TO 36 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 311200 UTC 18.1S 175.8E MOV ESE AT 10KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 18.7S 177.3E MOV ESE AT 09KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 19.4S 178.3E MOV ESE AT 07KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 20.2S 179.1E MOV SE AT 07KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 310800UTC.

图片:FMS 20180331 00UTC.gif

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933954
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发布于:2018-03-31 21:23
命名Josie
命名表上是Jo。。。莫非又改了。
FKPS01 NFFN 311309
TC ADVISORY
DTG:                 20180331/1200Z
TCAC:                NFFN
TC:                  JOSIE
NR:                  01
PSN:                 S1824 E17542
MOV:                 ESE 11KT
C:                   995HPA
MAX WIND:            35KT
FCST PSN +6HR:       31/1800 S1848 E17636
FCST MAX WIND +6HR:  40KT
FCST PSN +12HR:      01/0000 S1906 E17718
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +18HR:      01/0600 S1924 E17800
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 40K
FCST PSN  +24HR:      01/1200 S1942 E17824
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 40KT
RMK:                 NIL
NXT MSG:             20180331/1900Z

图片:LATEST.jpg

图片:QQ20180401-0.gif


[9914dan于2018-04-01 03:06编辑了帖子]
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meow
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发布于:2018-03-31 21:56
933954锛毭砩鲜荍o。。。莫非又改了。
FKPS01 NFFN 311309
TC ADVISORY
DTG:                 20180331/1200Z
TCAC:                NFFN
TC:  ...
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
根据命名表,Josie是E排(备用排)的名字。FMS本身有权在认为必要的时候临时替换到A到D排以外的E排。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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Mitch
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发布于:2018-03-31 22:24
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