9914dan
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[SH(17-18)]斐济海域三级强热带气旋“科尼”(13F/19P.Keni) - 斐济再遭旋风侵袭,风眼横过坎达武岛 - FMS:75KT JTWC:85KT

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更多 发布于:2018-04-04 10:32
91P INVEST 180404 0000  14.4S  173.5E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20180404.0140.hm8.x.vis1km.91PINVEST.15kts-NAmb-144S-1735E.100pc.jpg

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1楼#
发布于:2018-04-05 08:56
斐济编13F
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD13F CENTRE {[1004HPA]} WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.5S
AND 169.7E AT 050000UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS.
BROAD CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTH OF SUPPOSED LLCC.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO
500HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
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2楼#
发布于:2018-04-05 10:36
JTWC:LOW
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.5S 170.3E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SLIGHT FLARING CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY BELOW A REGION OF FAVORABLY LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR BUT WITH MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-29 CELSIUS) IN THE VICINITY OF
VANUATU. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION TRAVELLING
EAST TOWARDS FIJI IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT WITH ONLY GFS AND NAVGEM
FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT AROUND TAU 48. IN ADDITION, THEY HIGHLIGHT
THE POSSIBILITY OF 91P INITIALLY HAVING SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS,
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BEFORE
CONSOLIDATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

图片:abpwsair.jpg

[iam最小值于2018-04-05 11:06编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-04-05 14:03
A Tropical Disturbance TD13F [1003HPa] was analysed near 14.0S 170.0E at 3pm Today. TD13F remains slow moving. The potential for it to develop into a Tropical cyclone in the next three days is stated as follows:
Friday 6th April  
Tropical Disturbance TD13F is expected to lie in the shaded region below and has a LOW-MODERATE potential for it to develop into a Tropical cyclone.
Saturday 7th April  
Tropical Disturbance TD13F is expected to lie in the shaded region below and has a MODERATEHIGH potential for it to develop into a Tropical cyclone.
Sunday 08th April
Tropical Disturbance TD13F is expected to lie in the shaded region below and has a HIGH potential for it to develop into a Tropical cyclone.
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发布于:2018-04-05 17:14

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD13F CENTRE {[1003HPA]} WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.5S
AND 170.0E AT 050600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES JUST NORTH OF
AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
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5楼#
发布于:2018-04-05 22:41
Information Number 1 on a Tropical Low issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and
Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 11:58pm VUT Thursday 5 April 2018.

At 11:00pm local time, a Tropical Low (1000 hPa) was located at 15.2S 170.4E.
The Tropical Low is positioned at the top left corner of square letter J, number
5 (J,5) of the Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone Tracking Map. That is about 240 KM east
of Maewo. The potential for the Tropical Low to become a tropical cyclone within
the next 24 to 48 hours and move towards the Vanuatu group is low to moderate.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time                     Position                 Intensity
+06 hours (5am, 6 Apr)            15.2S, 170.6E            20 KTS (35 KM/HR)
+12 hours (11am, 6 Apr)           15.2S, 170.9E            20 KTS (35 KM/HR)
+18 hours (5pm, 6 Apr)            15.3S, 171.0E            20 KTS (35 KM/HR)
+24 hours (11pm, 6 Apr)           15.3S, 171.1E            20 KTS (35 KM/HR)
+36 hours (11am, 7 Apr)           15.6S, 171.2E            25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+48 hours (11pm, 7 Apr)           15.9S, 171.2E            25 KTS (45 KM/HR)


There is a tropical Low over Vanuatu area, chances to develop into a cyclone in the next five days is stated below:
Likelihood of a Tropical Cyclone(s) in the Vanuatu Area
Friday:Low to moderate
Saturday:Low to moderate
Sunday:Low
Monday:Low
Tuesday:Low

图片:QQ20180406-0.gif



图片:20180405-163000.jpg



图片:bd_lalo-animated2.gif


[9914dan于2018-04-06 00:59编辑了帖子]
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6楼#
发布于:2018-04-06 06:41
Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2S
170.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 170.5E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
151558Z 91GHZ SSMI/S MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOW A BETTER DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN ARC OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS
MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENABLING STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT OFFSET BY MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (28-29C) IN THE
SOUTHWEST PACIFIC AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR 91P REACHING TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AROUND TAU 36-60, BUT VARY GREATLY ON TRACK SOLUTIONS. GFS
IS CALLING FOR 91P TO STAY QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SOLOMON
ISLANDS, WHILE OTHERS SEND THE STORM EAST AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

TPPS11 PGTW 052103
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91P (NE OF VANUATU)
B. 05/2040Z
C. 14.57S
D. 170.48E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
 DAVIS
[933954于2018-04-06 06:46编辑了帖子]
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7楼#
发布于:2018-04-06 09:45
FMS升热带低压并上望二级旋风
GALE WARNING 013 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 060109 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13F CENTER 1000HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.5S 169.4E AT
060000UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.

EXPECT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UPTO 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 18 TO
24 HOURS WITHIN 60 TO 180 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM CENTER IN THE SECTORS FROM
NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH DEPRESSION.

THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS AREA.

图片:QQ20180406-1.gif

[9914dan于2018-04-06 14:33编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-04-06 13:54
A Tropical Depression TD13F [1000HPa] was analysed near 15.0S 170.0E at 3pm Today. TD13F remains slow moving. The potential for it to develop into a Tropical cyclone in the next three days is stated as follows:
 
Saturday 7th April  
Tropical Depression TD13F is expected to lie in the shaded region below and has a HIGH potential for it to develop into a Tropical cyclone. The potential for formation of a Tropical Cyclone in the region from another system is VERY LOW.


WTPS11 NFFN 060000
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 060241 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13 CENTRE 1000HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 169.4E
AT 060000 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE SLOW MOVING.  MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.
EXPECT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UPTO 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING IN THE
NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS WITHIN 60 TO 180 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM CENTER
IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT NORTH OF LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS
IMPROVED IN PAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO
300HPA. SYSTEM LIES JUST NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL GIVING DT=1.5, MET
AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING
T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 14.7S 170.4E MOV ESE AT 04 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 15.0S 171.1E MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 15.4S 171.8E MOV ESE AT 04 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 16.0S 172.6E MOV ESE AT 04 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 060800 UTC.
[933954于2018-04-06 14:40编辑了帖子]
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9楼#
发布于:2018-04-06 15:11
FMS上望三级旋风

图片:65660 (1).gif


WOPS01 NFFN 060600
GALE WARNING 014 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 060646 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13F CENTER 999HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.7S 170.8E AT
060600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.
EXPECT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UPTO 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS WITHIN 60 TO 180 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM CENTER IN THE SECTORS FROM
NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH DEPRESSION.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES GALE WARNING 013.


WTPS11 NFFN 060600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 060751 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13 CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 170.8E
AT 060600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE SLOW MOVING.  MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS.
EXPECT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UPTO 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITHIN 60 TO 180 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM CENTER
IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT NORTH OF LLCC WITH ORGANISATION
POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES JUST
NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND
30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.2 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL GIVING DT=1.5, MET
AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 15.3S 171.4E MOV SE AT 03 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 15.8S 171.9E MOV SE AT 03 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 16.1S 172.5E MOV ESE AT 04 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 16.5S 173.5E MOV ESE AT 04 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 061400 UTC.
[933954于2018-04-06 17:30编辑了帖子]
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