temperature
资深会员-热带辐合带
资深会员-热带辐合带
  • 注册日期2006-05-12
  • 最后登录2018-10-18
  • 粉丝83
  • 关注27
  • 发帖数3530
  • 来自
阅读:505回复:1

[理论分析]综述:热带气旋的温带变性

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-04-05 23:36
这是去年(2017年)11月在《每月天气评论》(Monthly Weather Review) 上发表的一篇综述文章,暂时只看到了第一部分《气旋演化与直接影响》,第二部分应该还没有发表出来。
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0027.1

摘要如下:
温带变性(ET)是指热带气旋进入较高纬度、遇到斜压环境和降低的海表温度后转化为温带气旋的过程。此过程受热带到中纬度、中尺度到行星尺度的诸多现象所影响,并反之影响于这些现象,其相互影响程度因个别例子而异。本综述的动机,部分来源于近年来影响严重并被广泛观测的一些变性事件,例如2012年北大西洋飓风桑迪和2008年西北太平洋台风森拉克。本综述中详述了2003年的同主题综述文章发表以来,学界对温带变性在认识和预测方面的进展。我们讨论了从再分析、观测、模式预测等数据集里诊断温带变性的方法,介绍了东北太平洋和西南印度洋的温带变性的气候平均数据、并更新了西北太平洋和北大西洋的相关数据,还介绍了对温带变性导致的风、浪、降水等直接影响的认识及对个别例子的建模的新进展。我们突出展示了对温带变性中转化阶段的气旋结构演化的认识的改进,这很大程度上归功于若干新近的温带变性事件期间的飞机观测新数据。我们联系对转化后气旋的结构与演化产生影响的环境因素,讨论了业务和数值模式对温带变性相关的预测的可预报性,详述了温带变性的业务预报分析的实践与挑战。特别地,我们介绍了由于热带气旋变性过程中和变性后的威胁不断变化而给灾害通报交流造成的困难。本综述并为进一步改进对温带变性的认识、预报、灾害通报的未来工作提出了建议。
Extratropical transition (ET) is the process by which a tropical cyclone, upon encountering a baroclinic environment and reduced sea surface temperature at higher latitudes, transforms into an extratropical cyclone. This process is influenced by, and influences, phenomena from the tropics to the midlatitudes and from the meso- to the planetary scales to extents that vary between individual events. Motivated in part by recent high-impact and/or extensively observed events such as North Atlantic Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and western North Pacific Typhoon Sinlaku in 2008, this review details advances in understanding and predicting ET since the publication of an earlier review in 2003. Methods for diagnosing ET in reanalysis, observational, and model-forecast datasets are discussed. New climatologies for the eastern North Pacific and southwest Indian Oceans are presented alongside updates to western North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean climatologies. Advances in understanding and, in some cases, modeling the direct impacts of ET-related wind, waves, and precipitation are noted. Improved understanding of structural evolution throughout the transformation stage of ET fostered in large part by novel aircraft observations collected in several recent ET events is highlighted. Predictive skill for operational and numerical model ET-related forecasts is discussed along with environmental factors influencing post-transition cyclone structure and evolution. Operational ET forecast and analysis practices and challenges are detailed.In particular, some challenges of effective hazard communication for the evolving threats posed by a tropical cyclone during and after transition are introduced. This review concludes with recommendations for future work to further improve understanding, forecasts, and hazard communication.
[temperature于2018-04-06 00:15编辑了帖子]
附件名称/大小 下载次数 最后更新
mwr-d-17-0027.1.pdf (3718KB)  10 04-05 23:35
3条评分, 金钱 +1 威望 +1 贡献值 +1
  • Irkalla
    贡献值 +1
    优秀帖
    04-05 23:52
  • Irkalla
    威望 +1
    优秀帖
    04-05 23:52
  • Irkalla
    金钱 +1
    优秀帖
    04-05 23:52
喜欢0 评分3
从'95Kent开始追风,经历'99寒潮和'05的322飑线——春雨夏风秋干冬寒,岁月悄然已过。
temperature
资深会员-热带辐合带
资深会员-热带辐合带
  • 注册日期2006-05-12
  • 最后登录2018-10-18
  • 粉丝83
  • 关注27
  • 发帖数3530
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2018-04-06 00:08
文中提到的2003年同主题综述文章。
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0434%282003%29018%3C1052%3ATETOTC%3E2.0.CO%3B2

摘要如下:
相当数量的热带气旋移入温带、并转化为温带气旋。此过程一般被称为温带变性(ET)。在温带变性过程中,气旋常产生强降水和大风并且移速加快,因此此类系统对陆地和海洋上的各种活动有严重威胁。温带变性过程中气旋结构的改变也要求预报策略必须因而变化。本综述概括了温带变性的气候平均数据,就各种预测要素(路径、强度、地面风、降水)及其影响(洪水、野火、海洋响应)描述了温带变性预报的种种困难,并讨论了对温带变性的数值预报的问题。我们全面总结了目前为止对温带变性相关过程的认识,描述了温带变性的归类,并描述了如何以位涡的观念帮助认识温带变性过程。后续的章节讨论了热带气旋和中纬度环境的相互作用,潜热释放、对流、地表/海表等因素在温带转化中的角色,锋生导致的气旋结构变化,降水发生的机制,以及温带变性过程中的能量收支分析。最后,我们对温带转化的未来研究方向做了总结。
A significant number of tropical cyclones move into the midlatitudes and transform into extratropical cyclones. This process is generally referred to as extratropical transition (ET). During ET a cyclone frequently produces intense rainfall and strong winds and has increased forward motion, so that such systems pose a serious threat to land and maritime activities. Changes in the structure of a system as it evolves from a tropical to an extratropical cyclone during ET necessitate changes in forecast strategies. In this paper a brief climatology of ET is given and the challenges associated with forecasting extratropical transition are described in terms of the forecast variables (track, intensity, surface winds, precipitation) and their impacts (flooding, bush fires, ocean response). The problems associated with the numerical prediction of ET are discussed. A comprehensive review of the current understanding of the processes involved in ET is presented. Classifications of extratropical transition are described and potential vorticity thinking is presented as an aid to understanding ET. Further sections discuss the interaction between a tropical cyclone and the midlatitude environment, the role of latent heat release, convection and the underlying surface in ET, the structural changes due to frontogenesis, the mechanisms responsible for precipitation, and the energy budget during ET. Finally, a summary of the future directions for research into ET is given.
[temperature于2018-04-06 00:18编辑了帖子]
附件名称/大小 下载次数 最后更新
waf_TC_ET.pdf (4746KB)  1 04-06 00:16
从'95Kent开始追风,经历'99寒潮和'05的322飑线——春雨夏风秋干冬寒,岁月悄然已过。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
游客

返回顶部