颱風巨爵
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TCFA - 马达加斯加东北93S - 11.1S 50.6E - 未來威脅留尼汪

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更多 发布于:2018-04-16 15:21
93S INVEST 180416 0600   5.7S   58.2E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20180416.0630.msg-1.vis.93S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.5.7S.58.2E.100pc.jpg

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论坛版主-副热带高压
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1楼#
发布于:2018-04-17 21:28
DATE: 2018/04/17 AT 1200 UTC

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The enhanced convective phase of MJO is now analysed over Indian Ocean according with the
negative anomaly potential velocity at 200 hpa. Filtred OLR data show also an equatorial Rossby
wave that manifests as 2 twin cyclonic gyres located between 55 and 60E.

Over South hemisphere, according with the total precipitable water product animation from cimss,
the wide gyre is centred approximatively near 6S/58E. Deep convective activity is strong within this
area but doesn't show any signs of organization. It is forecasted to move slowly westward without
significant evolution.

A second gyre is also detectable more eastern near 4S/77E. This wide clockwise gyre is forecasted
to maintain within the Near Equatorial Trough (NET). The NET is expected to strengthen thanks to
a slighly equatorward westerly burst associated to a kelvin wave and, polerward, thanks to the
arrival of low level subtropical hight.

Development of a moderate tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days over the basin.

图片:20180417.1100.msg1.x.vis2km.93SINVEST.15kts-1009mb-75S-588E.100pc.jpg

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真宫寺小乔
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2楼#
发布于:2018-04-18 07:58
发生在南半球低纬度东风中,原本以为斯里兰卡一带的北半球低涡会触发一个扰动,没想到在南半球这个位置触发了
我知道我很笨,很没用,可是,我白天拼命练习法术,我很努力!夜晚…发奋提高知识,然后每天……到拼抢散派任务,这么多的努力和汗水,都是为了能和姐姐们一样,成为一个堂堂正正的狐妖!
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论坛版主-副热带高压
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3楼#
发布于:2018-04-20 15:24
DATE: 2018/04/19 AT 1200 UTC

South-West of Agalega :
During the following days, the broad surface trough located in the western parts of the NET, is
expected to generate a closed clockwise circulation, with the increase of equatorial convergence and
upper divergence, tomorrow. Environmental conditions are forecast to remain conducive until
Monday. From Tuesday, the upper trough responsible of the upper divergence is likely to enhance
the vertical wind shear and the intrusion of dry air within the inner core. The intensification chances
then, would be very limited.
Numerical guidance is in a good agreement, suggesting a weak to moderate cyclogenesis signal on
this scenario, with a low dispersion. However, the environment and the proximity of the Malagasy
coasts do not appear conducive for a complete cyclogenesis.

图片:20180419.0900.msg1.x.vis2km.93SINVEST.20kts-1008mb-98S-597E.100pc.jpg

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红豆棒冰冰
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4楼#
发布于:2018-04-20 22:00
ABIO10 PGTW 201400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/201400Z-201800ZAPR2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.2S
55.0E, APPROXIMATELY 800 NM NORTH OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO A BROAD, CONSOLIDATING LLC. THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS CHARACTERIZED BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW PROVIDING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (10-20KTS) VWS. SSTS ARE WARM (26-28C) AND WILL
SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWEST TOWARDS MADAGASCAR.
DISSENTING IS THE JGSM, WITH NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, AND THE UKMO,
SHOWING SOME DEVELOPEMENT BUT NOT REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
ACCORDING TO THE 200000Z MODEL RUN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AS LOW.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-04-20 22:01编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
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5楼#
发布于:2018-04-21 01:28
ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/201800Z-211800ZAPR2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.8S 56.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2S 55.0E, APPROXIMATELY 790
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A BROAD,
CONSOLIDATING LLC. A 04201523Z PARTIAL SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS ISOLATED AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING. THE
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MARGINAL
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SSTS ARE WARM (28-29C) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT, WITH NAVGEM
AND GFS PREDICTING DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WHILE THE UKMET MODEL
DOES NOT FORECAST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-04-21 01:41编辑了帖子]
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刚打酱油回来
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超强台风
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6楼#
发布于:2018-04-21 05:28
AWIO20 FMEE 201139
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2018/04/20 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The Westerly flow is well established at the equator. Within the near equatorial area, convection is
strong and concentrated around two main synoptic structures : a wide clockwise circulation in the
North-North-East of Madagascar and a branch of Near Equatorial Trough (NET) East of 60E.
Thunderstorms are also strong and frequent off the coasts of Zanzibar, favored by a strong low level
convergence.
North-North-East of Madagascar :
This morning 06Z ASCAT swath showed a closed but still elongated clockwise circulation near
6.5S/56E with winds of 10/15kt. Ground observation of atmospheric pressure do not show any
significant decreasing trend. Convection is favored by a good poleward upper divergence but the
low level convergence remains weak. Over the next days, this weak system should track Southward
and then along the Eastern coasts of Madagascar. Although the circulation could become better
organised thanks to an increased convergence caused by the high pressure cell in the South-East, the
appearance of a strong Northerly wind shear ahead of a deep upper trough during the beginning of
next week should prevent any significant deepening. The deterministic models are in good
agreement over this scenario while the ensemble prediction still suggest a low cyclogenesis risk.
For the next 5 days, the risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm is very low East of
Madagascar.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical
storm over the basin and within the next five days:
Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30% High: 50% to 90%
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african
coastlines to 90E.
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梦幻粉影
热带低压
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7楼#
发布于:2018-04-22 15:56
JTWC已经对93S发布TCFA
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红豆棒冰冰
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8楼#
发布于:2018-04-22 16:34
WTXS22 PGTW 220800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220721Z APR 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 220730)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.5S 50.5E TO 17.0S 53.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.1S 50.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S 51.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 50.6E, APPROXIMATELY 705
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. A 220252Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS THE
DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZING TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC AND BEGINNING TO
WRAP INTO THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH DISTINCT POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT.
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) ARE SUPPORTIVE
OF DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH AT APPROXIMATELY
TAU 24 WITH THE SYSTEM PASSING ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF
MADAGASCAR AS IT TRANSITS ALONG A SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230800Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 4.6S 79.9E.//
NNNN

图片:sh9318.gif

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-04-22 16:37编辑了帖子]
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