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[SH(17-18)]斐济以北热带低压14F(94P) - 抵斐前消散

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更多 发布于:2018-04-17 17:41
94P INVEST 180417 0600  10.0S  178.0E SHEM   20  1007

图片:20180417.0810.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.94PINVEST.20kts-1007mb-100S-1780E.100pc.jpg

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论坛版主-副热带高压
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1楼#
发布于:2018-04-17 20:30
斐济定为LPA。暂时没有编号,EC最新预测是自北向南穿过斐济,强度大致为低压级别。

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE EQUATOR to 25S between 160E and
120W
issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Apr 170800 UTC.

………………
LOW PRESSURE L1 CENTRE [1007HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 09.3S 175.2E AT
170600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.

图片:ecmwf_mslp_uv850_swpac_4.png

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发布于:2018-04-18 09:50
FMS 編號"14F"

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 172358 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD14F CENTRE [1007HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0S
178.0E AT 172100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR
HIMAWARI-8 VIS/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT EAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC WITH POOR
ORGANISATION. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

图片:20180418.0000.goes15.x.vis1km_high.94PINVEST.20kts-1007mb-120S-1780E.100pc.jpg

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发布于:2018-04-18 13:43
ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZAPR2018//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.2S 178.2E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 180339Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE
LLCC. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
WESTERLIES, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEM TRACKING POLEWARD HOWEVER, THE
MODELS HAVE YET TO INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-04-18 13:54编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-04-20 02:32

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif



TPPS10 PGTW 191821
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (N OF FIJI)
B. 19/1800Z
C. 14.16S
D. 177.28E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
1.5 DT. MET/PT 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   DAVIS

TXPS29 KNES 191831
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94P)
B.  19/1730Z
C.  14.0S
D.  177.1E
E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS
H.  REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. 3.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT ARE 2.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    19/1617Z 14.1S 177.2W SSMIS

...ZHU

图片:20180419.1617.f16.91pct91h91v.94P.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.13.5S.177.3E.065pc.jpg



WWPS21 NFFN 192300 200000 AAA
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 192310 200010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD14F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S
177.2E AT 192100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR
HIMAWARI-8 IR/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST AROUND
29 DEGREES CELCIUS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE SOUTH OF SUPPOSED LLCC WITH POOR
ORGANISATION. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW MODERATE.
[刚打酱油回来于2018-04-20 18:32编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-04-20 08:50

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif


TPPS10 PGTW 200029
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (N OF FIJI)
B. 19/2350Z
C. 15.05S
D. 177.25E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.5  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DISORGANIZED CNVCTN
YIELDS DT TOO WEAK. MET/PT 1.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   DAVIS

TXPS29 KNES 200024
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94P)
B.  19/2330Z
C.  14.1S
D.  177.5E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T1.0/2.0/W1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA.
SHEAR PATTERN USED WITH CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES LESS THAN 1.25
DEGREE FROM SMALL WARMING CONVECTION YIELDS A DT OF 1.0.  MET AND
PT AGREE.  FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...KIBLER
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发布于:2018-04-20 18:28
ABPW10 PGTW 201000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201000Z-210600ZAPR2018//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.1S 177.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 176.8E, APPROXIMATELY
160 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 200651Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH SPARSE CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE EAST. VWS IS CURRENTLY HIGH (25-30KTS) OVER 94P AND
IS INCREASING STEADILY. SSTS REMAIN WARM (27-28C) AND ARE CONDUCIVE
TO DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF, NOW MAINTAINING WEAK
TROUGHING TRAVELLING SOUTH WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
LOW.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

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发布于:2018-04-20 18:34
MODERATE→VERY LOW
WWPS21 NFFN 200900
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 200905 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD14F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8S
179.0E AT 200600 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR
HIMAWARI-8 IR/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST AROUND
29 DEGREES CELCIUS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE SOUTH OF SUPPOSED LLCC WITH POOR
ORGANISATION. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN IT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARDS.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS VERY LOW.


*********************************************************************
***************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
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