颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-08-03
  • 最后登录2018-12-13
  • 粉丝65
  • 关注1
  • 发帖数457
  • 来自
阅读:1004回复:9

[SH(17-18)]TCFA - 马尔代夫东南96S - 9.3S 82.6E

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-04-21 08:01
96S INVEST 180421 0000   3.0S   77.4E SHEM   15  1010

图片:20180420.2248.f16.91pct91h91v.96S.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.3S.77.4E.090pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-04-26 23:01编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +3 威望 +3
喜欢0 评分2
Society is dead, long live society!
是誰令青山也變,變了俗氣的嘴臉?又是誰令碧海也變,變作濁流滔天?
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
红豆棒冰冰
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2018-12-13
  • 粉丝44
  • 关注40
  • 发帖数1693
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2018-04-21 15:35
ABIO10 PGTW 210730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/210730Z-211800ZAPR2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.2S 55.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9S 53.1E, APPROXIMATELY 810
NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 210230Z PARTIAL SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS ISOLATED AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND
FORMATIVE BANDING. THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY MARGINAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SSTS ARE WARM (28-29C) AND WILL SUPPORT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN SPLIT ON THE CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT, WITH NAVGEM AND GFS PREDICTING DEVELOPMENT AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WHILE THE UKMET MODEL DOES NOT FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.1S
77.2E, APPROXIMATELY 341 NM NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS BROAD TURNING WITH
PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A
CONSOLIDATING LLCC. A 210354Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTION WITH OBVIOUS BANDING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15-20KTS) WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR
AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT. SSTS ARE WARM
(28-29C) WHICH WILL ALSO SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTING THE SYSTEM MOVING ON A WESTWARD THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
BEYOND TAU 30. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2).//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-04-21 15:37编辑了帖子]
欢迎加入百度百科地理组台风编辑小组,QQ群号码:692323623
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
ray790601
热带低压
热带低压
  • 注册日期2016-02-15
  • 最后登录2018-10-30
  • 粉丝6
  • 关注1
  • 发帖数82
  • 来自
2楼#
发布于:2018-04-21 15:36
JTWC 07Z直接評級Medium,數值看好發展。

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.1S
77.2E, APPROXIMATELY 341 NM NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS BROAD TURNING WITH
PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A
CONSOLIDATING LLCC. A 210354Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTION WITH OBVIOUS BANDING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15-20KTS) WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR
AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT. SSTS ARE WARM
(28-29C) WHICH WILL ALSO SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTING THE SYSTEM MOVING ON A WESTWARD THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
BEYOND TAU 30. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

图片:abpwsair (6).jpg



图片:20180421.0600.msg1.x.vis1km_high.96SINVEST.25kts-1004mb-41S-772E.100pc.jpg

图片:96S_gefs_latest.png

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
  • 注册日期2012-11-16
  • 最后登录2018-12-06
  • 粉丝200
  • 关注6
  • 发帖数6338
  • 来自
3楼#
发布于:2018-04-22 05:53
AWIO20 FMEE 211301
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2018/04/21 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The thunderstorm activity within the near equatorial area is mainly gathering within two suspect
areas.

North-North-East of Madagascar :
A surface clockwise circulation is now rather well defined with the low level clouds. It is centered
near 8°S / 52.3°E at 10:30Z. The MSLP is estimated at 1007 hPa and the winds are weak at 15-20 kt
according to this morning ascat pass. The associated thunderstorm activity is limited currently near
the center and is more present within convergence lines located at the periphery, essentially within
the south-eastern and north-eastern sectors (where it brings thunderstorm activity over the
Seychelles main islands). The system is currently within marginal environmental conditions for
further development, mainly due to a lack of low level convergence and a slight easterly constraint.

Within the next few days, the system should gradually move southwards then southeastwards within
still marginal environmental conditions with still weak low level convergence and mixted upper
level conditions (excellent divergence polewards but increasing northerly constraint starting from
Monday). A small window of neutral to slightly favorable environmental conditions exists until
Monday. Some NWP models (GFS) are aggressive to deepen this system but this scenario seems to
excessive. However a low chance of development remains for this system, mainly within the next
two days.

On the forecast track, the system is expected to near the Mascaregnes islands on Tuesday
-Wednesday where a deterioration of the weather conditions is possible by that time.

For the next 2 days, the risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm is low East of
Madagascar.


East of Diego Garcia :
An intense thunderstorm activity has taken place during the last 24 hours within the NET and south
of the equatorial westerlies. Satellite imagery along with this morning scatt data allow to detect a
surface low near 4S / 78.5E at 10:45Z with an estimated 6-8 kt eastwards motion. Within a
generally favorable environment, this system should gradually develop within the next few days.
NWP guidance are in increasing agreement for a development and a stronger signal is now seen on
available ensemble forecast (GEFS, EPS).
This system is likely to gradually move southwards and then south-westwards to west-southwestwards.
However not all the guidance are in agreement with this track (UKMO suggest a general
south-eastwards track)

From Tuesday, the risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm becomes moderate East of
Diego Garcia.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical
storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30% High: 50% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african
coastlines to 90E.
人民的名义
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
  • 注册日期2012-11-16
  • 最后登录2018-12-06
  • 粉丝200
  • 关注6
  • 发帖数6338
  • 来自
4楼#
发布于:2018-04-22 05:58

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


TPXS11 PGTW 212142
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96S (NE OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 21/2100Z
C. 4.62S
D. 78.84E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T1.0/1.0
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT YIELDS 1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   21/1631Z  4.57S  79.10E  MMHS

   LOWE
人民的名义
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
  • 注册日期2012-11-16
  • 最后登录2018-12-06
  • 粉丝200
  • 关注6
  • 发帖数6338
  • 来自
5楼#
发布于:2018-04-22 12:08

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif


TPXS10 PGTW 220301
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96S (NE OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 22/0230Z
C. 4.77S
D. 80.30E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   21/2120Z  4.68S  80.02E  SSMI
   21/2211Z  4.72S  79.90E  MMHS
   21/2236Z  4.78S  80.18E  SSMS

   LOWE
人民的名义
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
梦幻粉影
热带低压-GW
热带低压-GW
  • 注册日期2016-01-31
  • 最后登录2018-12-09
  • 粉丝11
  • 关注2
  • 发帖数112
  • 来自
6楼#
发布于:2018-04-22 15:54
JTWC已发布TCFA
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2018-12-13
  • 粉丝44
  • 关注40
  • 发帖数1693
  • 来自
7楼#
发布于:2018-04-22 16:33
WTXS21 PGTW 220730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220751Z APR 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 220800)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 240 NM RADIUS OF 4.6S 79.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 220700Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.6S 79.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.1S 78.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.6S 79.9E, APPROXIMATELY 475
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A
220233Z NOAA-18 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND BROAD SHALLOW BANDING, HOWEVER, A RECENT SCATSAT IMAGE
SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE
(15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT SOURCE
POSITIONED OVER THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES OF 29 TO 30C
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS A GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS WITH GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 230730Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 50.6E.//
NNNN

图片:sh9618.gif

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-04-22 16:35编辑了帖子]
欢迎加入百度百科地理组台风编辑小组,QQ群号码:692323623
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2018-12-13
  • 粉丝44
  • 关注40
  • 发帖数1693
  • 来自
8楼#
发布于:2018-04-24 17:36
ABIO10 PGTW 240800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/240800Z-241800ZAPR2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240151ZAPR2018//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240721ZAPR2018//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
     (1) AT 240000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.5S 55.1E, APPROXIMATELY 61 NM NORTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, AND
HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 240300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.

    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.3S 81.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 80.8E, APPROXIMATELY 500
NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS WEAKENING FLARING CONVECTION ABOVE A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC.
A 240433Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH NO CLEAR
CENTER AND 20-25KTS THROUGHOUT. STILL WARM (27-28C) SSTS ARE BEING
OFFSET BY INCREASING VWS AND WEAKENING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH ONLY GFS PREDICTING
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE QUICKLY DYING OFF BY TAU 48. ALL OTHER
MODELS ARE NOT PREDICTING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 240730) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

图片:sh962018.20180424185832.gif

[颱風巨爵于2018-04-25 04:22编辑了帖子]
欢迎加入百度百科地理组台风编辑小组,QQ群号码:692323623
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2018-12-13
  • 粉丝44
  • 关注40
  • 发帖数1693
  • 来自
9楼#
发布于:2018-04-25 08:02
ABIO10 PGTW 241900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/241900Z-251800ZAPR2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351ZAPR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 241200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.8S 57.2E, APPROXIMATELY 162 NM SOUTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS,
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 241500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.9S 81.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 79.0E, APPROXIMATELY 401
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AREAS OF FLARING CONVECTION REMAIN
PRESENT AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED
WITH 96S. A 241247Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SMALL AREAS OF
DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RANGING FROM 15 TO 20
KNOTS ALONG WITH WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE BETWEEN 28 AND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LIMITED DEVELOPMENT
AS 96S TRACKS SOUTHWARD OVER COOLER WATER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
LOW.//
NNNN

图片:BFED0DA76A5B8041CCCFA45BA9C97973.jpg

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-04-25 13:17编辑了帖子]
欢迎加入百度百科地理组台风编辑小组,QQ群号码:692323623
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
游客

返回顶部