颱風巨爵
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[SH(17-18)]科科斯群岛西南强热带风暴第9号“火树”(21S.Flamboyan) - 西南印史上首个兼本季第三个印尼命名风暴、史上首个印尼名C1 - MFR:60KT JTWC:70KT

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更多 发布于:2018-04-25 09:46
98S INVEST 180425 0000   9.8S   97.3E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20180425.0110.himawari-8.vis.98S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.9.8S.97.3E.100pc.jpg


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发布于:2018-04-26 09:29
Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC)

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Southern Indonesia area
Issued Wednesday, April 25th 2018 09.50 Western Indonesia Time

Current Tropical Cyclone in the Southern Indonesia area:
None.

Tropical cyclone development possibility:
Low with minimum pressure 1010 mb is observed in Indian Ocean near 9.5 S 97E, southwest of Lampung and moving westward or southwestward .

Possibility to develop into tropical cyclone:
Thursday (tomorrow) : small possibility
Friday (tomorrow +1): small possibility
Saturday (tomorrow +2) : medium possibility

Note:
Small possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is less than 10%.
Medium possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is about 20%-40%.
Large possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is more than 50%.

Southern Indonesia area is area within equator to 11 S and 90 to 141 E.


Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Thursday 26 April 2018
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 29 April 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low, near 07S 098E, is likely to track to the southwest and may move into the far northwest of the region over the weekend. The system is a only a Low risk of reaching tropical cyclone intensity, before moving west of the region during Monday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday:Very Low
Saturday:Low
Sunday:Low


AWIO20 FMEE 260937
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2018/04/26 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The basin is in the Near Equatorial Trough (NET) pattern, centered between 06 and 09S.
Convective activity is weak and fluctuating.

Area of disturbed weather, east of Diego-Garcia:
The convective activity associated with the disturbed area east of Diego-Garcia is limited to the
eastern part of this area and has decreased significantly since the last 24 hours due to a northwesterly
vertical constraint that will continue. The environment continues to evolve unfavorably to
a possible cyclogenesis. The current wide circulation associated with this disturbed area is expected
to disappear at the end of the week.


There is no risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm associated with this area, anymore.


Over the far eastern part of the basin:
A minimum is located near 7.0S / 98E at 06UTC (Tropical Cyclone Outlook from the western
region of the BOM). Numerical models forecasts continue to move this system into our area of
responsibility during the Saturday to Sunday night, while deepening. The environmental conditions
appear favorable for a continuation of its intensification at the beginning of week before meeting
later conditions of vertical wind shear which will mark the end of its intensification in the middle of
next week.

For the next 5 days, the risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm becomes moderate
over the far eastern basin on Monday.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical
storm over the basin and within the next five days:
Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30% High: 50% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african
coastlines to 90E.

图片:cyclogenese.png

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红豆棒冰冰
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发布于:2018-04-28 00:01
ABIO10 PGTW 271300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/271300Z-271800ZAPR2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5S
97.0E, APPROXIMATELY 276 NM NORTH OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND FLARING CONVECTION. A 270839Z SSMI
85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING AND
ORGANIZING DEEP CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
INVEST 98S IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND BURGEONING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT
THAT INVEST 98S WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
TRACKS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, BUT VARY ON THE TIMEFRAME OF
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AS LOW.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg




ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/271800Z-281800ZAPR2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.5S 97.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7S 96.3E, APPROXIMATELY 265
NM NORTH OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS CONTINUING TO
CONSOLIDATE. A 271207Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS IMPRESSIVE
BANDING WITH AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, RANGING BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS, ALONG
WITH DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 28 AND
29 DEGREES CELSIUS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 98S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MODELS VARY WITH THE TIMEFRAME OF
DEVELOPMENT WITH NAVGEM PREDICTING AN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT, WITHIN 12
HOURS, AND ECMWF PREDICTING A MORE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, WITHIN 60
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg




TPXS10 PGTW 271802
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98S (SW OF SUMATRA)
B. 27/1730Z
C. 7.35S
D. 96.26E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT YIELDING A 1.5.
DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   LEMBKE

TXXS26 KNES 271759
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98S)
B.  27/1730Z
C.  7.8S
D.  96.0E
E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS
H.  REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. GREATER THAN 0.2 BANDING GIVES A DT OF 1.0. MET IS 1.0. PT IS
1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT BECAUSE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    27/1207Z 7.8S 97.3E SSMIS

...HOSLEY

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif

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meow
世纪风王
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发布于:2018-04-28 13:17
印尼BMKG升热低,预报半天内命名。

图片:IDJ22001.gif


IDJ21020
BADAN METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

            BULETIN TEKNIS SIKLON TROPIS
            
Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 03:34 UTC 28/04/2018
Digunakan hanya sebagai pertimbangan pembuatan prakiraan cuaca, tidak untuk disebarluaskan secara langsung kepada masyarakat.

System: 1
Storm ID: 98S

SIKLON TROPIS: Depresi Tropis
Data pada: 28/0000 UTC
Lintang: 7,8LS
Bujur: 94,4BT
Akurasi Posisi: sekitar    
Arah gerak: barat (259 derajat)
Kecepatan gerak: 13 knots (24 km/jam)
Arah 1: Dari Bengkulu
   Pada  +0: 530 mil (980 km) barat barat daya
   Pada +12: 690 mil (1270 km) barat barat daya
   Pada +24: 840 mil (1560 km) barat barat daya
Arah 2: Dari Bengkulu
   Pada  +0: 530 mil (980 km) barat barat daya

Angin Maksimum 10-Menit: 25 knots (45 km/jam)
Gust Maksimum 3-detik: 45 knots (85 km/jam)
Tekanan dipusat siklon: 1004 hPa
Intensitas: Depression
24 jam Intensitas: Gale


DATA PRAKIRAAN
Tgl./Jam    : Posisi          :   Akurasi: Kec.Angin Max:Tekanan dipusat: Gust
(UTC)       : derajat         :  mil (km): knots(km/jam):            hPa: knots(km/jam):
+ 6: 28/0600:   8,3LS   93,2BT: 015 (030):    030  (055):           1000:    045  (085)
+12: 28/1200:   8,9LS   92,0BT: 030 (055):    035  (065):            998:    050  (095)
+18: 28/1800:   9,4LS   90,8BT: 045 (085):    035  (065):            998:    050  (095)
+24: 29/0000:  10,0LS   89,7BT: 060 (110):    040  (075):            997:    055  (100)
+36: 29/1200:  11,2LS   87,7BT: 090 (170):    040  (075):            996:    055  (100)
+48: 30/0000:  12,3LS   86,2BT: 125 (230):    050  (095):            995:    065  (120)
+60: 30/1200:  13,4LS   85,2BT: 170 (320):    055  (100):            994:    070  (130)
+72: 01/0000:  14,5LS   84,7BT: 220 (405):    050  (095):            997:    065  (120)

KETERANGAN TEKNIS
Informasi lebih lanjut hubungi: 021- 6546315/18

DAMPAK
Bibit Siklon Tropis 98S memberikan dampak terhadap cuaca di Indonesia berupa:
- Gelombang dengan tinggi gelombang 1.25 - 2.50 m berpeluang terjadi di Perairan Bengkulu hingga barat Lampung, Selat Sunda bagian selatan, Perairan selatan P. Jawa.
- Gelombang dengan tinggi gelombang 2.5 – 4.0 m berpeluang terjadi Samudra Hindia selatan P. Jawa



Buletin berikutnya untuk sistem ini akan dikeluarkan pada: 28/0700 UTC oleh Jakarta TCWC.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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红豆棒冰冰
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发布于:2018-04-28 13:28
WTXS21 PGTW 280130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.6S 95.5E TO 12.4S 86.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.0S 94.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.7S 96.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0S 94.6E, APPROXIMATELY 284
NM NORTH OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).  A 272117Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS IMPRESSIVE AREAS OF DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS. THE VWS IS OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS WHICH CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE
TIMELINE FOR DEVELOPMENT IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH GFS,
NAVGEM, AND ECMWF PREDICTING DEVELOPMENT IN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290130Z.//
NNNN

图片:sh9818.gif

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-04-28 13:29编辑了帖子]
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Mitch
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发布于:2018-04-28 13:53
用户被禁言,该主题自动屏蔽!
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933954
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发布于:2018-04-28 16:59
JTWC升21S
TPXS10 PGTW 280620
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98S (SW OF SUMATRA)
B. 28/0600Z
C. 9.23S
D. 91.82E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/18HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .55 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
2.5 DT. MET 1.5. PT 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   28/0309Z  8.57S  93.02E  MMHS
   DAVIS


21S TWENTYONE 180428 0000 8.2S 94.2E SHEM 30 1005
At 0600 UTC, 28 April 2018, TWENTY-ONE (SH21) was located in the South-East Indian basin at 8.9°S and 92.5°E. The current intensity was 35 kt and the center was moving at 16 kt at a bearing of 250 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb.
[933954于2018-04-28 17:25编辑了帖子]
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1a8f9w35S1ic48
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发布于:2018-04-28 18:47
woc没人开贴。。。
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933954
台风
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发布于:2018-04-28 18:49
1a8f9w35S1ic48锛歸oc没人开贴。。。鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
怎么了?
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iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2018-04-28 18:52
移动速度很快,形态也较好,12Z应该是在印尼区域命名的最后机会,18Z之前应该会跨过90E进入MFR责任区。

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif



WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280121ZAPR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280600Z --- NEAR 8.9S 92.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S 92.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 10.0S 90.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 11.4S 87.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 12.8S 86.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 14.3S 85.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 16.7S 85.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 19.5S 86.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 21.8S 87.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 9.2S 91.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1193 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COVERED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE MSI IMAGERY
AND A 280309Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS SPIRALING
BANDS WRAPPING INTO DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PGTW 280600Z CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) FIX OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE KNES
280600Z FIX OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES OF 27-28C ARE
CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 21S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN BORDER OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, AFTER WHICH THE STR WILL RECEDE TO
THE EAST, ALLOWING TC 21S TO TURN TO A MORE SOUTHWARD RECURVING
TRACK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
THROUGH TAU 48, WHEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 65 KNOTS.
AFTER TAU 48, AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD, TC 21S WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL BRING
STRONG VWS, AND 21S WILL TRACK INTO AN AREA OF COOLER SSTS, WHICH
WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, SEVERAL OUTLIERS TO THE WEST, INCLUDING COTC
AND ECMWF, SLOW THE SYSTEM'S FORWARD MOTION AND ENLARGE ITS TURNING
RADIUS, BIASING CONSENSUS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OTHER MODELS MOSTLY
AGREE ON PROPAGATION SPEED THROUGH THE TURN, BUT VARY SLIGHTLY IN
THEIR EAST TO WEST PLACEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY INSIDE OF AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS, PLACING HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE MORE EASTERN TRACKS THAT BETTER DEPICT
RECURVATURE. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 280130).//
NNNN

图片:sh2118 20180428 0600Z.gif


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DATE: 2018/04/28 AT 1200 UTC

Tropical depression near 8.7S/91E at 09Z in the Indonesain AoR :
The system is forecasted to enter in our AoR this night at 18Z to the stage of Moderate Tropical
Storm. It should keep on its southwestward track. From Sunday, the system should evolve under the
near equatorial upper level ridge with a weak to moderate vertical windshear and a good upper level
divergence both polerward and equatorward. So the system is forecasted to strengthen thanks to
these favorable environmental conditions. From Tuesday, the arrival of an upper level trough
should close the window of intensification with an increasing northwestward vertical windshear. So
the system should begin to weaken as it curves southward.
[iam最小值于2018-04-28 22:02编辑了帖子]
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