9914dan
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[EP]东太平洋热带低压01E

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更多 发布于:2018-05-08 00:57
90E INVEST 180507 1800   9.0N  119.0W EPAC   15   NA

图片:20180507.1700.goes15.x.vis1km.90EINVEST.15kts-NAmb-90N-1190W.100pc.jpg


图片:two_pac_2d1.png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png



1. A large area of disturbed weather has formed a little more than
one thousand miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be
marginally favorable for some development during the next day or
two while the disturbance moves generally toward the west-northwest
and northwest.  After that time, upper-level winds are expected to
become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation.  The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by
11 AM PDT Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
[tcfa_gw于2018-05-11 09:02编辑了帖子]
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renzhetegong
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1楼#
发布于:2018-05-08 08:09
Invest 90E
As of 00:00 UTC May 08, 2018:

Location: 9.0°N 120.2°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 30 NM
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renzhetegong
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2楼#
发布于:2018-05-08 17:36

90E目前涡度红,建有高反。对流有点衰。NHC认为周五开始环境变差。

A persistent broad area of low pressure is analyzed as a 1010 mb
surface low at 09N121W. Environmental conditions are favorable
for slow development over the next few days as the low moves
moves northwestward. A blend of global guidance results in a
solution of a surface low near 12N122W tonight accompanied by
strong to near gale force winds. The forecast is for minimal
gale force conditions to develop within 75 nm over the north
semicircle of the low near 12N123W on Wed.  Gale conditions
should continue through early Fri when environmental conditions
will become less favorable. This system has the potential to
become a tropical cyclone.
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红豆棒冰冰
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3楼#
发布于:2018-05-09 01:57
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1030 AM PDT Tue May 8 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite images indicate that a broad area of low pressure has
developed in association with the region of disturbed weather
located a little more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula. The system is gradually becoming
better organized and environmental conditions appear to be favorable
for some additional development. A tropical depression could form
from this system later today or Wednesday before the disturbance
moves slowly northwestward toward unfavorable upper-level winds
later this week. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 11 AM PDT Wednesday, or earlier, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Avila

图片:two_pac_2d0.png


图片:two_pac_2d1.png


图片:two_pac_5d1.png


图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-05-09 07:28编辑了帖子]
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4楼#
发布于:2018-05-09 07:30
WTPN21 PHNC 082200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4N 120.7W TO 12.8N 124.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081710Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 121.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.2N 118.2W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 120.6W, APPROXIMATELY
625 NM SOUTHWEST OF CLARION ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LLCC WITH SIGNIFICANT, CO-LOCATED MID-
LEVEL TURNING. CONVECTION IS LIGHTLY FLARING AS THE STORM APPROACHES
THE DIURNAL MINIMUM, YET SHOWING GOOD ORGANIZATION AS IT WRAPS INTO
THE LLCC. VWS IS CURRENTLY LOW (10-15KTS) BUT INCREASES TO THE
NORTHWEST WHERE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK. SSTS ARE WARM (27-
28C) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT MAINTAINING A CIRCULATION TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST, BUT ARE SPLIT ON THE POSSIBLITY OF DEVELOPMENT, WITH GFS
AND NAVGEM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092200Z.//
NNNN

图片:ep9018.gif

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-05-09 07:31编辑了帖子]
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刚打酱油回来
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5楼#
发布于:2018-05-09 11:04

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


TXPZ29 KNES 090024
TCSENP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)
B.  09/0000Z
C.  10.4N
D.  122.3W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...CURVED BANDING AROUND FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NNW OF THE
LLCC WRAPS GREATER THAN .2 FOR DT=1.0. MET AND PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...VELASCO
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红豆棒冰冰
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6楼#
发布于:2018-05-09 15:20
TXPZ29 KNES 090623
TCSENP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)
B. 09/0600Z
C. 10.6N
D. 122.8W
E. THREE/GOES-W
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...DT OF 2.0 IS BASED ON 0.35 BANDING IN LWIR, BUT CLOUD
FEATURES LOOK BETTER ORGANIZED IN ANIMATED IMAGERY THAN IN THE 0514Z
AMSU PASS. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
 NIL
...RAMIREZ

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

[9914dan于2018-05-09 17:28编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
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7楼#
发布于:2018-05-09 16:00
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 AM PDT Wed May 9 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms have become
a little better organized this morning in association with a broad
area of low pressure located more than 1100 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Although recent
satellite-derived surface wind data indicate winds of 30 to 35 mph
were occurring on the northwest side of the disturbance, the
low-level circulation remains elongated.  However, only a slight
increase in the amount and organization of the thunderstorm activity
or an improvement in the surface wind field would result in the
formation of a tropical depression later today while the system
moves northwestward at around 10 mph. By late Thursday, upper-level
winds are expected to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone
formation. A Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 11 AM PDT later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

图片:two_pac_2d0.png



图片:two_pac_2d1.png


图片:two_pac_5d1.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-05-09 16:04编辑了帖子]
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renzhetegong
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8楼#
发布于:2018-05-09 17:06
GFS预测90E后天持续风力接近50kt
ECMWF不看好发展

描述:ECMWF-050900Z

图片:ecmwf_mslp_uv850_epac_4.png

ECMWF-050900Z

描述:GFS-050900Z

图片:360截图20180509165743959.jpg

GFS-050900Z

图片:2018EP90_4KMIRIMG_201805090830.GIF

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红豆棒冰冰
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9楼#
发布于:2018-05-10 01:51
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1025 AM PDT Wed May 9 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. After a period of increased organization during the past 24 hours,
the shower activity associated with the broad area of low pressure
located more than 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has markedly decreased. It appears that
the disturbance is already reaching an unfavorable environment, and
the chances of tropical cyclone formation are diminishing. However,
a tropical depression could still form later today before strong
upper-level winds become established over the system on Thursday.
Another Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this disturbance will be
issued by 11 AM PDT on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Avila

图片:663b55fbb2fb43162e5cc1cd2ca4462308f7d398.jpg


图片:20df9e510fb30f24b19c57b4c495d143ac4b03dd.jpg

图片:ad726b600c338744bd8694cb5d0fd9f9d62aa098.jpg


图片:rgb_lalo-animated.gif

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-05-10 12:11编辑了帖子]
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